Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
... prediction intervals (ranges outside which outcomes are unlikely to fall) expand rapidly as time horizons increase, so that one is faced with enormous intervals even when trying to forecast a straightforward thing such as automobile sales for General Motors over the next five years. • When there is ...
... prediction intervals (ranges outside which outcomes are unlikely to fall) expand rapidly as time horizons increase, so that one is faced with enormous intervals even when trying to forecast a straightforward thing such as automobile sales for General Motors over the next five years. • When there is ...
The response of the terrestrial biosphere to
... steady state to obtain the size of the ecosystem’s carbon and nitrogen pools under the assumption of the ecosystem being in equilibrium with the long-term climate. In this simulation the CO2 concentration was set to a preindustrial level of 283 ppm (Fig. 1), the annual nitrogen atmospheric depositio ...
... steady state to obtain the size of the ecosystem’s carbon and nitrogen pools under the assumption of the ecosystem being in equilibrium with the long-term climate. In this simulation the CO2 concentration was set to a preindustrial level of 283 ppm (Fig. 1), the annual nitrogen atmospheric depositio ...
Winter 2016
... degrees in Meteorology. During his tenure at GFDL, ending in 2015, he has worked closely with Syukuro (Suki) Manabe, who was the first scientist to develop a numerical model that joined the atmosphere and ocean into a single coupled model to represent the Earth's climate system. Stouffer has publish ...
... degrees in Meteorology. During his tenure at GFDL, ending in 2015, he has worked closely with Syukuro (Suki) Manabe, who was the first scientist to develop a numerical model that joined the atmosphere and ocean into a single coupled model to represent the Earth's climate system. Stouffer has publish ...
The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare
... MAgPIE is well suited to translate biophysical into economic impacts because crop yield patterns and water availability that are directly affected by climate change enter the economic model as spatially explicit biophysical constraints. The surplus concepts are standard analytical tools in welfare e ...
... MAgPIE is well suited to translate biophysical into economic impacts because crop yield patterns and water availability that are directly affected by climate change enter the economic model as spatially explicit biophysical constraints. The surplus concepts are standard analytical tools in welfare e ...
- ResearchOnline@JCU
... reports available via the internet. An Annotated Bibliography of 48 references is attached. As part of the literature review an Endnote Library of 213 references was produced. Arctic and Pacific nations Arctic communities and Pacific island nations are the ‘canaries in the coalmine’ for climate chan ...
... reports available via the internet. An Annotated Bibliography of 48 references is attached. As part of the literature review an Endnote Library of 213 references was produced. Arctic and Pacific nations Arctic communities and Pacific island nations are the ‘canaries in the coalmine’ for climate chan ...
Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change
... deviations are calculated. The Kane et al. (1992) and Tsigas et al. (1996) studies use one GCM only. Their standard deviations are set such that coefficient of variation equals the average coefficient of variation of the other studies. Four cases are distinguished: whether or not CO2 -enrichment of ...
... deviations are calculated. The Kane et al. (1992) and Tsigas et al. (1996) studies use one GCM only. Their standard deviations are set such that coefficient of variation equals the average coefficient of variation of the other studies. Four cases are distinguished: whether or not CO2 -enrichment of ...
Building Place-Based Climate Change Education
... places and activities people love, so by using cherished places as common ground, and by using place-based climate change messages that address impacts on a local level, parks and refuges can spur visitors to confront climate issues. This research revealed several valuable approaches that could help ...
... places and activities people love, so by using cherished places as common ground, and by using place-based climate change messages that address impacts on a local level, parks and refuges can spur visitors to confront climate issues. This research revealed several valuable approaches that could help ...
An analysis of climate trends in the Susquehanna River basin
... through increasing amounts of evaporation and transpiration. In some locations, this can create more frequent precipitation events (Hergel and others 2004, Arnell 1999). This positive feedback amplifies the human – induced warming that is already taking place due to increased carbon dioxide levels. ...
... through increasing amounts of evaporation and transpiration. In some locations, this can create more frequent precipitation events (Hergel and others 2004, Arnell 1999). This positive feedback amplifies the human – induced warming that is already taking place due to increased carbon dioxide levels. ...
a PDF
... in the past two decades.This is confirmed by a large body of scientific data.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that this warming is mostly attributable to the build up of greenhouse gases (principally CO2) in the atmosphere due to burning of fossil fuels and changes ...
... in the past two decades.This is confirmed by a large body of scientific data.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that this warming is mostly attributable to the build up of greenhouse gases (principally CO2) in the atmosphere due to burning of fossil fuels and changes ...
Climate change and ocean acidification in OSPAR
... about 0.1 units from pre-industrial (1750) levels8. Nearly half of anthropogenic CO2 (burning fossil fuels and cement manufacture) has already been absorbed by the surfaces of our seas over the same period9. In the UK, the Royal Society10 acknowledges that the pH of our oceans is reducing in a manne ...
... about 0.1 units from pre-industrial (1750) levels8. Nearly half of anthropogenic CO2 (burning fossil fuels and cement manufacture) has already been absorbed by the surfaces of our seas over the same period9. In the UK, the Royal Society10 acknowledges that the pH of our oceans is reducing in a manne ...
Day of Prayer - sample content
... to be a direct result of global warming, rising sea temperatures will definitely increase the severity of hurricanes. Warmer air holds more water that may fall as rain, bringing heavier rainfall with the strong winds. ...
... to be a direct result of global warming, rising sea temperatures will definitely increase the severity of hurricanes. Warmer air holds more water that may fall as rain, bringing heavier rainfall with the strong winds. ...
Now more than ever: The need for more societally
... vulnerability and adaptation not only in poorer, developing nations, but also in developed nations (e.g., Adger, Dessai, Goulden, Hulme, Lorenzoni, Nelson, et al., 2009; Easterling, Hurd, & Smith, 2004; Moser & Luers, 2008; O’Brien, Eriksen, Sygna, & Naess, 2006; Pielke, Prins, Rayner, & Sarewitz, 2 ...
... vulnerability and adaptation not only in poorer, developing nations, but also in developed nations (e.g., Adger, Dessai, Goulden, Hulme, Lorenzoni, Nelson, et al., 2009; Easterling, Hurd, & Smith, 2004; Moser & Luers, 2008; O’Brien, Eriksen, Sygna, & Naess, 2006; Pielke, Prins, Rayner, & Sarewitz, 2 ...
marine, Freshwater, and Terrestrial Ecosystems on
... to lessen, while activity in the WNP will increase significantly (Emanuel, 2005). The projections of potential intensity of tropical cyclones in these areas all show low, but significant, increases over the next 70 years (Yu et al., 2010). Projections for the eastern Pacific, which could affect Hawa ...
... to lessen, while activity in the WNP will increase significantly (Emanuel, 2005). The projections of potential intensity of tropical cyclones in these areas all show low, but significant, increases over the next 70 years (Yu et al., 2010). Projections for the eastern Pacific, which could affect Hawa ...
Australian rangelands and climate change – native species
... 1976 to 2005). The data are then used to project into the future to reveal the distribution expected using future climate data. The projection focuses on a particular year (such as 2030, 2070 or 2085), and the projections of future climate are based on a combination of global circulation models (GCM ...
... 1976 to 2005). The data are then used to project into the future to reveal the distribution expected using future climate data. The projection focuses on a particular year (such as 2030, 2070 or 2085), and the projections of future climate are based on a combination of global circulation models (GCM ...
Fisheries, aquaculture and climate change
... Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture A number of changes already evident can be attributed to the impacts of rising GHG emissions. Global average air temperatures rose by 0.74°C in the period 1906–2005 (IPCC, 2007a). Global average sea surface temperatures have also risen since 1950 as the oce ...
... Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture A number of changes already evident can be attributed to the impacts of rising GHG emissions. Global average air temperatures rose by 0.74°C in the period 1906–2005 (IPCC, 2007a). Global average sea surface temperatures have also risen since 1950 as the oce ...
Uruguay`s iNDC
... Thanks to the removal increase by LULUCF and to low emissions by the energy sector in 2030 Uruguay will be a net CO2 remover. (See Annex) CH4 Emissions - Beef production (78% of CH4 emissions in 2010) The singular biological origin of these emissions, in addition to the fact that the country cannot ...
... Thanks to the removal increase by LULUCF and to low emissions by the energy sector in 2030 Uruguay will be a net CO2 remover. (See Annex) CH4 Emissions - Beef production (78% of CH4 emissions in 2010) The singular biological origin of these emissions, in addition to the fact that the country cannot ...
International Quality Controlled Ocean Database
... quality regional reference data sets. These reference datasets have been quality controlled by skilled operators familiar with the regional oceanography, e.g., the QuOTA dataset (http://www.marine.csiro.au/~cow074/quota/quota.htm). The benchmarking analysis will identify the most effective combinati ...
... quality regional reference data sets. These reference datasets have been quality controlled by skilled operators familiar with the regional oceanography, e.g., the QuOTA dataset (http://www.marine.csiro.au/~cow074/quota/quota.htm). The benchmarking analysis will identify the most effective combinati ...
Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and
... Steep rock walls, slope debris, boulder screes, talus cones and avalanche chutes may limit the forest at relatively low elevation, whereas solitary trees and tree groves may occur far above at sites protected from wasting and avalanches. In cases where orographic factors prevent forest establishment ...
... Steep rock walls, slope debris, boulder screes, talus cones and avalanche chutes may limit the forest at relatively low elevation, whereas solitary trees and tree groves may occur far above at sites protected from wasting and avalanches. In cases where orographic factors prevent forest establishment ...
Response of river flow regime to various climate change scenarios
... Abstract: The potential climatic variability over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin like alterations in precipitation and temperature are expected to have a significant impact on the natural flow regime of its rivers. The Lower Meghna River, being a major drainage outlet of the basin, is likely ...
... Abstract: The potential climatic variability over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin like alterations in precipitation and temperature are expected to have a significant impact on the natural flow regime of its rivers. The Lower Meghna River, being a major drainage outlet of the basin, is likely ...
Modeled current and future soil thermal regime for northeast Canada
... by iteratively running the soil model from chosen conditions, taken as a vertically uniform profile set to the mean annual surface temperature value for the study period (1961 – 1990). Climatological daily values of surface temperature and snow depth for the studied current period are used as bounda ...
... by iteratively running the soil model from chosen conditions, taken as a vertically uniform profile set to the mean annual surface temperature value for the study period (1961 – 1990). Climatological daily values of surface temperature and snow depth for the studied current period are used as bounda ...
ITU and Early Warning
... of electricity consumption in the EU and may grow to 10.5% by 2020.” Source: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0111:FIN:EN:DOC. ...
... of electricity consumption in the EU and may grow to 10.5% by 2020.” Source: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0111:FIN:EN:DOC. ...
Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts on Biodiversity
... current stressors, and adaptive responses will often be constrained by factors like habitat loss and lack of connectivity, invasive species, and hydrologic modifications. Direct effects of temperature increases are likely to be most critical for aquatic species that require cold to cool stream habit ...
... current stressors, and adaptive responses will often be constrained by factors like habitat loss and lack of connectivity, invasive species, and hydrologic modifications. Direct effects of temperature increases are likely to be most critical for aquatic species that require cold to cool stream habit ...
Climate change feedback
Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing, and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state. Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it.The term ""forcing"" means a change which may ""push"" the climate system in the direction of warming or cooling. An example of a climate forcing is increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. By definition, forcings are external to the climate system while feedbacks are internal; in essence, feedbacks represent the internal processes of the system. Some feedbacks may act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system; others may be tightly coupled; hence it may be difficult to tell just how much a particular process contributes. Forcings, feedbacks and the dynamics of the climate system determine how much and how fast the climate changes. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming. The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan–Boltzmann law, the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space changes with the fourth power of the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere.Some observed and potential effects of global warming are positive feedbacks, which contribute directly to further global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report states that ""Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.""