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The impact of climate change on dairy production
The impact of climate change on dairy production

... This is a technical report of a research project funded by safe food to investigate the potential food safety, economic and environmental impacts of climate change on the dairy production chain on the island of Ireland. The key objectives of the research were ...
The role played by social-ecological resilience as a method of
The role played by social-ecological resilience as a method of

... In the ‘climate change modeling’ subproject, uncertainty played a crucial role as a major aspect of resilience. On the one hand, there were uncertainties about the future development of climate change, including different scenarios, as well as uncertainties intrinsic to the models because of inadequ ...
The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on
The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on

... Available energy (often expressed in terms of potential evaporation) and precipitation largely determine annual evapotranspiration and runoff rates in a region. The ratio of annual potential evaporation to precipitation, referred to as the aridity index by Budyko, has been shown to describe the evap ...
The use of the aridity index to assess climate
The use of the aridity index to assess climate

... Available energy (often expressed in terms of potential evaporation) and precipitation largely determine annual evapotranspiration and runoff rates in a region. The ratio of annual potential evaporation to precipitation, referred to as the aridity index by Budyko, has been shown to describe the evap ...
Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century
Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

... a global RF for aviation cirrus with a mean value of 30 mW m2 and an uncertainty range of 10–80 mW m2, assuming similar optical properties to very thin cirrus. IPCC AR4 WGI adopted these values with the caveat that 30 mW m2 does not constitute a ‘best estimate’ in the same qualitative sense as ot ...
A Realist Review of Climate Change Adaptation Programme
A Realist Review of Climate Change Adaptation Programme

... These occasional papers from UNDP’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) are a series of ad hoc publications presenting in edited form, papers on evaluation topics. Occasional papers cover one or more of the main themes of the Office’s work, such as assessment of development results, thematic evalua ...
Defining the climate adaptation-migration nexus: what role for
Defining the climate adaptation-migration nexus: what role for

... mobility patterns and of the factors underpinning them point to the crucial importance of local governance systems, institutions and civil society in any such policies and initiatives. This does not mean, however, that regional, national and international levels should be overlooked. The practical i ...
Livestock and Climate Change in the Near East Region: measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change.
Livestock and Climate Change in the Near East Region: measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change.

... overall supervision of Dr. Moujahed Achouri, Deputy Regional Representative, OIC, Assistant Director General and Regional Representative for the Near East. FAO is grateful to Dr. Kaisa Karttunen (FAO consultant of the Regional Office for the Near East), Dr. Sandy Williams (Scriptoria, UK), the anony ...
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats

Ice Age DA - GDI - 2011
Ice Age DA - GDI - 2011

... It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much ...
Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook MODULE 10: Climate-smart fisheries and aquaculture
Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook MODULE 10: Climate-smart fisheries and aquaculture

... According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability to change is a function of the degree of exposure to climate change, the sensitivity of a system to such changes and the adaptive capacity of the system (IPCC, 2001; more on risks, vulnerabilities and resilience in Modu ...
Quantifying Mineral Dust Mass Budgets:Terminology
Quantifying Mineral Dust Mass Budgets:Terminology

... back upon dust emission, these categories are not completely independent. For example, radiative forcing by dust from anthropogenic sources alters the circulation, which feeds back upon dust emission from natural sources. Perlwitz et al.[2001] estimate that this feedback changes the global dust load ...
Cirrus cloud radiative characteristics from continuous
Cirrus cloud radiative characteristics from continuous

... Cirrus clouds, and especially optically thin ice crystal clouds with an optical depth below 0.03 exist globally [1], but are mostly found in the tropical upper troposphere, where the temperature is very low [2]. These sub-visible cirrus clouds (SVC) have been investigated over sever ...
Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions
Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions

... Anthropogenic and natural aerosols represent an additional process that has not yet been fully incorporated into coupled carbon-climate models. Aerosols are solids or liquids suspended in the atmosphere. They interfere with incoming and outgoing radiation, and potentially impact cloud formation (e.g ...
Ehlers and Poulsen, Influence of Andean uplift on climate and
Ehlers and Poulsen, Influence of Andean uplift on climate and

... use modern atmospheric adiabatic lapse rates and mean-annual temperatures in the foreland to reconstruct the paleoelevation of sample deposition. These techniques assume that surface temperature only changes as a function of lapse rate that may or may not vary in response to plateau uplift. These ca ...
Methods in World History
Methods in World History

... transfer of information. That has never happened before: what does it imply for globalization? Globalization is multifacetted, permeating almost all aspects of human life, from the production of material objects to the production of ideas, from social conflict to ideational clashes. Ideas have sprea ...
Methods in World History
Methods in World History

... transfer of information. That has never happened before: what does it imply for globalization? Globalization is multifacetted, permeating almost all aspects of human life, from the production of material objects to the production of ideas, from social conflict to ideational clashes. Ideas have sprea ...
Chapter 4—Adaptation and Mitigation
Chapter 4—Adaptation and Mitigation

... background information for envisioning a range of potential futures rather than to project a single outcome. Using different types of models to address the same area and issue is recommended, such as models built with different assumptions, process interactions, and input data. Quantitative (algorit ...
April 2015 Tayanah O`Donnell and Brian Weir
April 2015 Tayanah O`Donnell and Brian Weir

... So let me just tell you a very quick story. CURF is very small. The United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network is very big. So they came to Australia and said we’d like to have some engagement with Australia. Monash University jumped on board straight away, yes, the Sustainability Inst ...
Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution
Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution

... without delay—and why our inaction to date will lead directly to real costs within this decade. To make our air cleaner, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must strengthen its current standards for ozone and ozone-forming pollutants that come from power plants, industry, and vehicles. Bu ...
Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of
Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of

... mountain tops or polar edges of continents [5, 6]. Secondly, velocity may approach infinity in flat areas, even if similar future climates are found just beyond the focal neighborhood. Because of these factors, a metric based on the actual distance between a location and the location where a similar ...
doc - Canadian Pugwash Group
doc - Canadian Pugwash Group

... START-1. While some problems remain, the accomplishments so far on the CANWFZ offer experience applicable to an Arctic NWFZ. While extensive negotiations are in store, this idea is very timely, and the Russian experience tells us that work should start now. Each denuclearized zone is different9, no ...
Scanning the Conservation Horizon
Scanning the Conservation Horizon

... various aspects of climate projections and vulnerability assessments, we provide specific guidance on understanding, addressing, and documenting uncertainty. Finally, climate change is not occurring in a vacuum, and assessments must be carried out in the context of existing stresses on our species a ...
national adaptation strategy and plan of action on climate change for
national adaptation strategy and plan of action on climate change for

... particular, climate change will impede efforts to years leading up to 2020.” reduce the poverty experienced by the majority - Nigeria Vision 20:2020 of Nigerians. It will retard the drive to ensure equity in the distribution of development benefits, particularly among women and men; and it will chec ...
Scanning the Conservation Horizon
Scanning the Conservation Horizon

... various aspects of climate projections and vulnerability assessments, we provide specific guidance on understanding, addressing, and documenting uncertainty. Finally, climate change is not occurring in a vacuum, and assessments must be carried out in the context of existing stresses on our species a ...
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Scientific opinion on climate change



The scientific opinion on climate change is the overall judgment amongst scientists about whether global warming is happening, and if so, its causes and probable consequences. This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized:Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale. Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative. Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change, however, policy decisions may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its statement to its current non-committal position. Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
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