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Of Rain and Raids: Violent Livestock Raiding in Northern Kenya
Of Rain and Raids: Violent Livestock Raiding in Northern Kenya

... Being revitalized under UNDAF Outcome Working Group on DRR ...
Download paper (PDF)
Download paper (PDF)

... across states. These numbers also reveal that the pattern across states of the payoffs associated with climate change mitigation will have a dramatic effect on the appropriate discount rate. Because the potential benefits from mitigation accrue many centuries into the future, even small changes in t ...
Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past

... overall aim is to quantitatively compare results from climate proxy data with results from several climate model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for the mid-Holocene period and the pre-industrial, conditions for the pan-arctic region, north of 60◦ N. In this first ...
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Crop Pollination
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Crop Pollination

... mutualistic interaction between plants and animals: pollination. The international community has acknowledged the importance of a diversity of insect pollinators to support the increased demand for food brought about by predicted population increases. Insect pollination is threatened by several envi ...
Natural Disasters and Migration: Storms in Central America and the
Natural Disasters and Migration: Storms in Central America and the

... stability (Chase-Dunn & Grimes, 1995). This displacement can lead to migration. When people lose their homes and jobs, elements that gave stability to their life, they may be more likely to migrate and look for stability elsewhere, whether within their own country or abroad. In the 2001 report of th ...
Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of
Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of

... of terrestrial animals, especially ectotherms. Changes in environmental temperature are the most direct and predictable outcome of increased greenhouse gas emissions [2]. Such changes can alter body temperatures (Tb) of ectotherms, and thus their physiological performance and vulnerability [8,10,20– ...
Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming
Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming

... of terrestrial animals, especially ectotherms. Changes in environmental temperature are the most direct and predictable outcome of increased greenhouse gas emissions [2]. Such changes can alter body temperatures (Tb) of ectotherms, and thus their physiological performance and vulnerability [8,10,20– ...
Arctic amplification: can the past constrain the future?
Arctic amplification: can the past constrain the future?

... through western Fram Strait, then along the east coast of Greenland into the North Atlantic through Denmark Strait. A smaller volume of surface water and sea ice flows out through the inter-island channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, reaching the North Atlantic through the Labrador Sea. The l ...
Full list of `Environment` briefings - European Parliament
Full list of `Environment` briefings - European Parliament

... Weather and climate have a profound influence on life on earth, being essential for health, food production and well-being (IPCC, 2001a). Scientific evidence exists which indicates that human-induced changes are being made to the climate, mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases. In particula ...
Briefing report
Briefing report

... That the world’s climate is changing is irrefutable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in its most recent Assessment Report that it is very likely that the changes we have seen and measured are the result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. While there may be some oppo ...
Phoenix Islands Protected Area Climate Change Vulnerability
Phoenix Islands Protected Area Climate Change Vulnerability

... Kiribati is an atoll and ocean nation of some 100,000 people straddling the equator and the dateline, in the Central Pacific Ocean. Its land area is some 811 km2 spread across 3.6 million km2 of ocean. With human populations growing and testing the limits of island resources, climate change is now b ...
Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) publication: Rising to the Urgent
Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) publication: Rising to the Urgent

... We do not bill requesters for FOIA processing fees when their fees are less than $50.00, because the cost of collection would be greater than the fee collected. See 43 C.F.R. § 2.37(g) . Therefore, there is no billable fee for the processing of this request. ...
Climate Change and Variability in the Sahel Region
Climate Change and Variability in the Sahel Region

... he Sahel is highly vulnerable to climate change due its geographic location at the southern edge of the Sahara desert and the strong dependence of its population on rainfed agriculture and livestock. The primary sector employs more than 60 percent of the active population and contributes 40 percent ...
The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions
The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions

... in climate over the past century and for quantifying the response to individual forcings, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, or volcanic eruptions [Bindoff et al., 2013; Hasselmann, 1993]. Estimates of the relative contributions by anthropogenic and natural forcings inform our attempts to constrain ...
Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Pathways toward
Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Pathways toward

... Whether labeled ‘tipping points’ [Lenton and Schellnhuber, 2007; Lenton et al., 2008], ‘large-scale singular events’ [O’Neill et al., in rev.; Smith et al., 2001, 2009; Oppenheimer et al., 2014], or ‘abrupt impacts’ [National Research Council, 2002, 2013], large-scale, non-linear shifts in the Earth ...
Implications of recent sea level rise science for low
Implications of recent sea level rise science for low

... elevation datasets that quantify potential socioeconomic and ecological impacts of SLR, omission of hydrological connectivity may result in overestimations of possible impacts. Exclusion of tidal wetlands landward of specified shorelines also may generate impact estimates that are too high. Incorpor ...
Aviation and Climate Change – the continuing
Aviation and Climate Change – the continuing

... aviation and shipping differently to sectors that do not operate within international airspace or waters, with policies that can allow for high growth rates in some countries. Whilst this may have some traction, it only holds within a climate change context if globally averaged growth rates do not j ...
The Geography of Solving Global Environmental Problems
The Geography of Solving Global Environmental Problems

... In approaching the symposium topic of "solving global environmental problems,"' I faced three dilemmas regarding the problem-climate change-that has occupied much of my time over the past several years. First, I do not regard it as "global." While certainly climate change has global dimensions, whic ...
PDF
PDF

... Global climate change is likely to impact forests and forestry in the United States. Regions in the U.S. may be differentially affected. Forecasts of climatic change and of the biological response to climate change in trees and forests are still largely hypothetical. Though much research is being do ...
"Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from a 9 Million-Field Partition of the Earth"
"Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from a 9 Million-Field Partition of the Earth"

... second counterfactual scenario in which countries can trade, but farmers cannot reallocate production within each field. Under this scenario, we find that the adverse welfare consequences of climate change are significantly larger than in the previous scenario. For the world as a whole, the loss wou ...
Blue Nile Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change
Blue Nile Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change

... immediately followed in August 2006 by some of the most severe flooding seen in the region which was said to be the worst in 50 years. It is likely that more extreme events like these will be observed more frequently in future as a result of global warming [3]. In an attempt to understand climatic s ...
PDF
PDF

... The  Social  Cost  of  Carbon  (SCC)  monetizes  the  damage  from  releasing  a  ton  of  CO2 to the atmosphere today. This is essential information for the determination  of optimal climate policies, as policies that price carbon according to the SCC will  give the correct economic incentive for r ...
Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios

... interventions, two separate designs for the highest and mid-level projected sea level scenarios (RSLR plus storm surge) relevant for the planning horizon of the interventions may be developed. For example, if the design lifetime of a planned flood protection measure is until 2100, then develop two ...
Slide 1
Slide 1

... Low Carbon Strategy for Inclusive Growth Government Nominee as Expert Reviewer for WG3 of AR5 of IPCC Former Additional Director General (Wildlife), Government of India Former Director General, Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education Former Member, Government of India Core Negotiating Grou ...
Energy Makeovers Pty Ltd - Department of Environment, Land
Energy Makeovers Pty Ltd - Department of Environment, Land

... and if so, under what range of mitigation scenarios. EM also believes that engagement with the insurance industry would be instructive in developing a fuller quantitative understanding of the benefits of taking early strong action to avoid the higher future adaptation costs that would accrue to the ...
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Scientific opinion on climate change



The scientific opinion on climate change is the overall judgment amongst scientists about whether global warming is happening, and if so, its causes and probable consequences. This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized:Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale. Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative. Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change, however, policy decisions may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its statement to its current non-committal position. Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
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