Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
... well as estimate the combined response of climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol abundance (of sulphate, black carbon and organic carbon, for example), ozone concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric), land use (for example, deforestation) and solar variability. By averagi ...
... well as estimate the combined response of climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol abundance (of sulphate, black carbon and organic carbon, for example), ozone concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric), land use (for example, deforestation) and solar variability. By averagi ...
Using Model Hierarchies to Better Understand Past Climate Change* Masa K
... over Europe. The range of the model results, in temperature as well as in precipitation, is fairly large (sometimes up to 10°C for the temperatures). However, when compared to the pollen-based thermal and hydrological estimates from Peyron et al. (1998) and Tarasov et al. (1999), all models simulate ...
... over Europe. The range of the model results, in temperature as well as in precipitation, is fairly large (sometimes up to 10°C for the temperatures). However, when compared to the pollen-based thermal and hydrological estimates from Peyron et al. (1998) and Tarasov et al. (1999), all models simulate ...
Model-simulated CO2-induced changes in seasonal precipitation
... • Patterns of simulated climate change remain quasi-constant in time, when the forcing is dominated by increasing GHGs and internal variability is filtered out e.g. by averaging over a large number of models. ...
... • Patterns of simulated climate change remain quasi-constant in time, when the forcing is dominated by increasing GHGs and internal variability is filtered out e.g. by averaging over a large number of models. ...
hurrellhighlights
... and Triassic periods at 251 Ma (1). This boundary marks the largest extinction recorded in Earth’s history. Kiehl and Shields are carrying out the first fully coupled climate simulation for this time period. They find the western tropical Panthalassic ocean has a warm pool of water with SSTs reachin ...
... and Triassic periods at 251 Ma (1). This boundary marks the largest extinction recorded in Earth’s history. Kiehl and Shields are carrying out the first fully coupled climate simulation for this time period. They find the western tropical Panthalassic ocean has a warm pool of water with SSTs reachin ...
how to deal accurately with both the core and valence electrons
... “…It therefore becomes desirable that approximate practical methods of applying quantum mechanics should be developed, which can lead to an explanation of the main features of complex atomic systems without too much computation.” Goal of modern atomic simulations: implement that dream ...
... “…It therefore becomes desirable that approximate practical methods of applying quantum mechanics should be developed, which can lead to an explanation of the main features of complex atomic systems without too much computation.” Goal of modern atomic simulations: implement that dream ...
Atmospheric Science
... Definition of climate, physical factors of climate, earth-sun relationship, ecliptic and equatorial plane, rotation of the earth, seasons, climatic controls. Climatic classification: methods of Koppen and Thornthwaite. Microclimate- basic concepts. Radiation climatology of the earth's atmosphere, ge ...
... Definition of climate, physical factors of climate, earth-sun relationship, ecliptic and equatorial plane, rotation of the earth, seasons, climatic controls. Climatic classification: methods of Koppen and Thornthwaite. Microclimate- basic concepts. Radiation climatology of the earth's atmosphere, ge ...
Results - SIITME
... We calculated the similarity of the documents to a query test (variable), by applying the Jaccard coefficient and the Euclidean distance. In the case of the Jaccard coefficient (dJ), the similarity is maximum for dJ=1, whereas for the Euclidean distance (dE) the similarity is maximum when the distan ...
... We calculated the similarity of the documents to a query test (variable), by applying the Jaccard coefficient and the Euclidean distance. In the case of the Jaccard coefficient (dJ), the similarity is maximum for dJ=1, whereas for the Euclidean distance (dE) the similarity is maximum when the distan ...
Regional climate simulation with a mosaic of RCMs
... With the polar stretching technique, the area of maximum resolution is a spherical cap. The higher the stretching factor, the smaller the area of high resolution (e.g. the area with more than 80% of the maximum resolution). An alternative to the use of a low stretching factor to cover a large area i ...
... With the polar stretching technique, the area of maximum resolution is a spherical cap. The higher the stretching factor, the smaller the area of high resolution (e.g. the area with more than 80% of the maximum resolution). An alternative to the use of a low stretching factor to cover a large area i ...
PPT presentation - Upper San Pedro Partnership
... • Models still do not simulate El Niño well… • “Best” models showed smallest changes ...
... • Models still do not simulate El Niño well… • “Best” models showed smallest changes ...
Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Importance to Sahel Precipitation
... range of atmospheric general circulation models • Regions with significant land-atmosphere coupling are identified from multi-model average (including West Africa) • These hot spots indicate where greater monitoring of soil moisture could yield the greatest return in seasonal forecasting • Results s ...
... range of atmospheric general circulation models • Regions with significant land-atmosphere coupling are identified from multi-model average (including West Africa) • These hot spots indicate where greater monitoring of soil moisture could yield the greatest return in seasonal forecasting • Results s ...
An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the
... The focus in this paper is on probability forecasts, specifically on contrasting the skill of simulation model probability forecasts with empirical model probability forecasts. On weather forecast time scales and in the medium range, simulation model–based probability forecasts clearly have more ski ...
... The focus in this paper is on probability forecasts, specifically on contrasting the skill of simulation model probability forecasts with empirical model probability forecasts. On weather forecast time scales and in the medium range, simulation model–based probability forecasts clearly have more ski ...
List of Abstracts
... if G is hyperconnected, then ” X is hyperconnected if and only if X/G is hyperconnected”; and if G is compact and ultraconnected, then ” X is ultraconnected if and only if X/G is ultraconnected”. Fadi Awawdeh and Wasfi Shatanawi, The Hashemite University- Jordan, [email protected] Homotopy Analysis ...
... if G is hyperconnected, then ” X is hyperconnected if and only if X/G is hyperconnected”; and if G is compact and ultraconnected, then ” X is ultraconnected if and only if X/G is ultraconnected”. Fadi Awawdeh and Wasfi Shatanawi, The Hashemite University- Jordan, [email protected] Homotopy Analysis ...
PeterBajcsy_SP2Learn_v2 - PRAGMA Cloud/Grid Operation
... Currently, there is no single method that could estimate R/D rates and patterns for all practical applications. Therefore, cross analyzing results from various estimation methods and related field information is likely to be superior than using only a single estimation method. ...
... Currently, there is no single method that could estimate R/D rates and patterns for all practical applications. Therefore, cross analyzing results from various estimation methods and related field information is likely to be superior than using only a single estimation method. ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.