Estimates of Oil Price Elasticity - International Association for Energy
... oil-price coefficients at the second, third, and fourth lags are Figure 1 -0.082, -0.170, and -0.177. For the period 1973 to 1980, those Real GDP Impact 4 quarters after a 10% Oil Price Increase coefficient values are -0.038, -0.078, and -0.115. An article by Hamilton in 2000 provided clear evidence ...
... oil-price coefficients at the second, third, and fourth lags are Figure 1 -0.082, -0.170, and -0.177. For the period 1973 to 1980, those Real GDP Impact 4 quarters after a 10% Oil Price Increase coefficient values are -0.038, -0.078, and -0.115. An article by Hamilton in 2000 provided clear evidence ...
Economic Forecast Update
... may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about th ...
... may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about th ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from... Research Volume Title: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
... perceived both current interest rates and current inflation, they used their beliefs regarding (1 – ) to compute vt, with the result that this always turned out to equal t. For the parameters used in this chapter the effect of 0 is to make firms raise their prices too much in response to o ...
... perceived both current interest rates and current inflation, they used their beliefs regarding (1 – ) to compute vt, with the result that this always turned out to equal t. For the parameters used in this chapter the effect of 0 is to make firms raise their prices too much in response to o ...
lecture notes
... conditions as with previous shocks. C. In 2005, conflict in the Middle East, combined with rapidly rising demand for oil in India and China, pushed oil prices above $60 per barrel (and over $70 per barrel in July 2006). U.S. inflation rose in 2005, but not core inflation (inflation rate minus price ...
... conditions as with previous shocks. C. In 2005, conflict in the Middle East, combined with rapidly rising demand for oil in India and China, pushed oil prices above $60 per barrel (and over $70 per barrel in July 2006). U.S. inflation rose in 2005, but not core inflation (inflation rate minus price ...
the Report
... especially petroleum. This power had caused many conflicts over the years that were sometimes as big as global crises and as destructive as coups. Oil has been the primary source of energy for the countries that are located in the LAC region for years. Correspondingly, major part of their economies ...
... especially petroleum. This power had caused many conflicts over the years that were sometimes as big as global crises and as destructive as coups. Oil has been the primary source of energy for the countries that are located in the LAC region for years. Correspondingly, major part of their economies ...
Modelling Challenges for the Near Future
... • Our empirical model combines both approaches. We find: — Geological limits are key for the upward trend in oil prices. — But demand shocks, through higher prices, can increase production. ...
... • Our empirical model combines both approaches. We find: — Geological limits are key for the upward trend in oil prices. — But demand shocks, through higher prices, can increase production. ...
10123481 Oil Prices in FSI
... other financial institutions. However, for some US regions and financial institutions, lower oil prices may generate formidable headwinds to growth and performance. Banks with large global operations, while enjoying the benefits of lower oil prices, may also face some additional challenges flowing f ...
... other financial institutions. However, for some US regions and financial institutions, lower oil prices may generate formidable headwinds to growth and performance. Banks with large global operations, while enjoying the benefits of lower oil prices, may also face some additional challenges flowing f ...
Economic Insight
... a result of the country’s nuclear programme. An interim resolution was reached in late 2013 – the first formal agreement between Iran and the US in 34 years. Limited sanctions relief has been provided for six months from 20 January 2014, in return for a freeze in Iran’s nuclear programme and dilutio ...
... a result of the country’s nuclear programme. An interim resolution was reached in late 2013 – the first formal agreement between Iran and the US in 34 years. Limited sanctions relief has been provided for six months from 20 January 2014, in return for a freeze in Iran’s nuclear programme and dilutio ...
Oil Price Analysis: November 2014
... As of January 2014, China held about 24.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the highest in the Asia-Pacific Region and the country’s total oil and liquids production, which the fourth largest in the world, only serves its domestic market. Production has not kept up pace with consumption. The E ...
... As of January 2014, China held about 24.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the highest in the Asia-Pacific Region and the country’s total oil and liquids production, which the fourth largest in the world, only serves its domestic market. Production has not kept up pace with consumption. The E ...
Macroeconomic impacts of peak oil: implications for growth in the 21 century st
... Despite continuous gains in energy efficiency, global energy consumption has risen exponentially, closely mimicking patterns of economic growth. In response to the meteoric rise of oil prices during the mid-2000s, there have been fresh concerns over the world’s ability to maintain a growing energy s ...
... Despite continuous gains in energy efficiency, global energy consumption has risen exponentially, closely mimicking patterns of economic growth. In response to the meteoric rise of oil prices during the mid-2000s, there have been fresh concerns over the world’s ability to maintain a growing energy s ...
U.S. Spotlight - Securing America`s Future Energy
... efficiency, lower per capita oil consumption, increasing domestic oil production, and somewhat lower global oil prices since the “Arab Spring” (and in particular, Libyan outages) in early 2011 (which resulted in the most recent low point for the score). These changing underlying dynamics have seen t ...
... efficiency, lower per capita oil consumption, increasing domestic oil production, and somewhat lower global oil prices since the “Arab Spring” (and in particular, Libyan outages) in early 2011 (which resulted in the most recent low point for the score). These changing underlying dynamics have seen t ...
View Extended Abstract
... revenue from oil during the periods of the oil windfalls and rising oil prices to grow its output. This is evident by the discrepancy between the contribution of the oil and gas sector to the total federal government revenue and the national GDP respectively. According to the Nigerian National Burea ...
... revenue from oil during the periods of the oil windfalls and rising oil prices to grow its output. This is evident by the discrepancy between the contribution of the oil and gas sector to the total federal government revenue and the national GDP respectively. According to the Nigerian National Burea ...
CHANGES IN FUEL OIL PRICES IN TURKEY: AN ESTIMATION OF
... gradually became dominant, and understanding the original Philips curve was considered to be invalid in the long-run. Inflation is defined as the continuous increase of general price levels in a country. Inflation may arise as a result of the pressure of demands in an economy or pressure caused by a ...
... gradually became dominant, and understanding the original Philips curve was considered to be invalid in the long-run. Inflation is defined as the continuous increase of general price levels in a country. Inflation may arise as a result of the pressure of demands in an economy or pressure caused by a ...
Devaluation of the Naira: Implication for Businesses in Nigeria
... Generally, crude oil price is determined in the international market by the interacting forces of demand for crude and the supply of crude oil. When global demand for crude oil is greater than supply of crude oil prices will rise in the international market. When global supply is greater than ...
... Generally, crude oil price is determined in the international market by the interacting forces of demand for crude and the supply of crude oil. When global demand for crude oil is greater than supply of crude oil prices will rise in the international market. When global supply is greater than ...
global recession, oil sector and economic growth in nigeria.
... respond to the likely effects of this crisis was meek initially, either they did not understand the crises or underestimated its magnitude. In general, they thought of the crisis as a financial issue that could be solved shortly without leading to economic crisis; however the effects on the oil sect ...
... respond to the likely effects of this crisis was meek initially, either they did not understand the crises or underestimated its magnitude. In general, they thought of the crisis as a financial issue that could be solved shortly without leading to economic crisis; however the effects on the oil sect ...
Oil and the Macroeconomy - University of California San Diego
... t reflected a surge in crude oil prices 20% above their previous 3-year high. Nevertheless, there was no discernible drop in GDP. Another surge in o# t of 18% occurred in 2004:III, accompanied by a 1.3% increase in world production, and a third surge of 21% in 2005:I, accompanied by a 0.2% increase ...
... t reflected a surge in crude oil prices 20% above their previous 3-year high. Nevertheless, there was no discernible drop in GDP. Another surge in o# t of 18% occurred in 2004:III, accompanied by a 1.3% increase in world production, and a third surge of 21% in 2005:I, accompanied by a 0.2% increase ...
The US Economy in 1980: Shockwaves from 1979
... then, oil prices are higher because oil demand is higher. Data on oil production and inventories are perhaps less reliable than the supply of oil itself, so the data cannot confidently be used to reject either one of these explanations. To the extent the data can be trusted, however, it appears that ...
... then, oil prices are higher because oil demand is higher. Data on oil production and inventories are perhaps less reliable than the supply of oil itself, so the data cannot confidently be used to reject either one of these explanations. To the extent the data can be trusted, however, it appears that ...
Modeling and Forecasting Residential Electricity
... Oil and the Macroeconomy of Kazakhstan Prepared for the 30th USAEE North American Conference, Washington DC By Ferhat Bilgin, Ph.D. Student and Fred Joutz Department of Economics George Washington University ...
... Oil and the Macroeconomy of Kazakhstan Prepared for the 30th USAEE North American Conference, Washington DC By Ferhat Bilgin, Ph.D. Student and Fred Joutz Department of Economics George Washington University ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES James D. Hamilton Working Paper 16186
... The energy expenditure share is a small number. In 2009, the U.S. consumed about 7.1 billion barrels of petroleum products, which at the current $80/barrel price of crude corresponds to a value around $570 billion. This would represent only 4% of U.S. GDP. Moreover, the short-run price-elasticity of ...
... The energy expenditure share is a small number. In 2009, the U.S. consumed about 7.1 billion barrels of petroleum products, which at the current $80/barrel price of crude corresponds to a value around $570 billion. This would represent only 4% of U.S. GDP. Moreover, the short-run price-elasticity of ...
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1
... OPEC Members concerning reduction of petroleum extraction by one million barrels a day since April together with immediate prohibition of over limit oil extraction 1.5 million barrels began to show only in the second half of February and did not have a big influence on monthly average of petroleum p ...
... OPEC Members concerning reduction of petroleum extraction by one million barrels a day since April together with immediate prohibition of over limit oil extraction 1.5 million barrels began to show only in the second half of February and did not have a big influence on monthly average of petroleum p ...
Aggregate Supply
... 5. Gov’t spending increases 6. giant natural gas discovery decreases energy prices 7. low birth rate will decrease the labor force in the future. ...
... 5. Gov’t spending increases 6. giant natural gas discovery decreases energy prices 7. low birth rate will decrease the labor force in the future. ...
An Analytical Study on the Impact of Fluctuating Oil Prices on OPEC
... and sold at a future date [1]. Oil prices dropped sharply in the second half of 2014 by 40 percent when it was $115 a barrel bringing an end to the four year period of relative price stability. Oil prices are expected to remain low in 2015 and increase marginally in 2016. The causes of sharp decline ...
... and sold at a future date [1]. Oil prices dropped sharply in the second half of 2014 by 40 percent when it was $115 a barrel bringing an end to the four year period of relative price stability. Oil prices are expected to remain low in 2015 and increase marginally in 2016. The causes of sharp decline ...
Global oil industry and Indian economy
... Table2. again given in appendix throws light on the major oil producer countries. Here too India tops the chart but India is nowhere. While India is the fourth largest consumer when it comes to production it lags behind. Other important factor affecting oil supply is the risk introduced by geopoliti ...
... Table2. again given in appendix throws light on the major oil producer countries. Here too India tops the chart but India is nowhere. While India is the fourth largest consumer when it comes to production it lags behind. Other important factor affecting oil supply is the risk introduced by geopoliti ...
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2016
... Lower oil prices strain the fiscal positions of fuel exporters and weigh on their growth prospects, while supporting household demand and lowering business energy costs in importers, especially in advanced economies, where price declines are fully passed on to end users. Though a decline in oil pric ...
... Lower oil prices strain the fiscal positions of fuel exporters and weigh on their growth prospects, while supporting household demand and lowering business energy costs in importers, especially in advanced economies, where price declines are fully passed on to end users. Though a decline in oil pric ...
Drivers of Demand for Capital in Global Energy
... 12) Security of supply as an enhanced geopolitical consideration as key supply states use energy as an economic weapon to leverage consumer states 13) Market distortions caused by increased government intervention through mandates, subsidies, taxes, and regulation 14) Fragility of the energy supply ...
... 12) Security of supply as an enhanced geopolitical consideration as key supply states use energy as an economic weapon to leverage consumer states 13) Market distortions caused by increased government intervention through mandates, subsidies, taxes, and regulation 14) Fragility of the energy supply ...
2000s energy crisis
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports from the United States Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves worries over peak oil, Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile tests, the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, worries over Iranian nuclear plans in 2006, Hurricane Katrina, and various other factors. By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of the global recession. The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices falling from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. Oil prices stabilized by October 2009 and established a trading range between $60 and $80.