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Climate Access Roundtable Friday, April 11, 2014
Climate Access Roundtable Friday, April 11, 2014

... What is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)? • USGCRP’s 13 federal agencies have worked for the past 23 years to coordinate their science and research investments (including satellite systems, on-the-ground measurements, modeling, and data management) and to understand, predict, assess a ...
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change

... The results shown here are based on simulations by 19 global climate models. This so-called CMIP3 data set is described by Meehl et al. (2007). The probabilistic forecasts are constructed using simulations for SRES A1B scenario (Naki enovi and Swart 2000). A resampling technique described by Räisäne ...
Our climate out of order?
Our climate out of order?

... also those who would dispute that we humans have any effect on the climate. The debate sometimes descends into trench warfare, where nuances are not tolerated. Hence the need to better differentiate between natural and anthropogenic climate change arises. This has now been accomplished through compa ...
Poster template
Poster template

... Introduction ...
Report of the Working Group on Climate Change
Report of the Working Group on Climate Change

... o Action area 2: All members: IPCC A1B Scenario data will be taken for SPATIAL trend analysis. Efforts will be made to use IPCC AR 5 scenarios Action area 3: GxExM: Studies to continue on locally released clones/cultivars for elevated Carbon dioxide and temperature under different moisture regimes. ...
Globalization_CR - Department of Geological & Atmospheric
Globalization_CR - Department of Geological & Atmospheric

... with natural variations over the last 400,000 years Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latt ...
Clouds Have Made Fools of Climate Modelers
Clouds Have Made Fools of Climate Modelers

... Clouds have made fools of climate modelers. A detailed analysis of cloud behavior from satellite data by Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville shows that clouds actually provide a strong negative feedback, the opposite of that assumed by the climate modelers. The modelers confus ...
Eos, Vol. 87, No. 52, 26 December 2006
Eos, Vol. 87, No. 52, 26 December 2006

... enhanced water infiltration. The removal of hundreds of thousands of beavers during early Dutch and English colonial rule led to the extensive desiccation of wetlands in New England. The Long Island Sound sediment may show a record of these changes brought about by the beaver pelt trade, although co ...
Climate Change, Uncertainty and Precaution
Climate Change, Uncertainty and Precaution

... • Knowledge base is characterized by large (partly irreducible, largely unquantifiable) uncertainties, multi-causality, knowledge gaps, and imperfect understanding; • More research  less uncertainty; unforeseen complexities! • Assessment dominated by models, scenarios, assumptions, extrapolations • ...
Nine Facts About Climate Change
Nine Facts About Climate Change

... concentrations beyond current levels will have no discernible effect on global temperatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colourless, odourless, tasteless, non-toxic gas which is essential to all life on earth. (Carbon monoxide, however, is extremely toxic and will cause death very quickly if inhaled.) ...
unpacking the ipcc fifth assessment report
unpacking the ipcc fifth assessment report

... is approved line-by-line by member countries prior to its release. Working Group I of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), covering the physical science, was released on 27 September 2013. The report found that warming of the climate system was unequivocal, with scientists more certain than ever befor ...
ITER_Feb2012 - Australian ITER Forum
ITER_Feb2012 - Australian ITER Forum

... seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases.’ These findings are fiercely disputed by other solar experts. ‘World temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’ said Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climat ...
Effects of Climate Change on Human Health
Effects of Climate Change on Human Health

... included. The baseline simulation period is 1961-1990 and the simulation experiments period is 2071-2100. The precipitation and temperature observation data (CRU20) from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom is used to validate the model performance in simulating the c ...
CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate: COMMENT
CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate: COMMENT

... Royer et al. (2004) citing the standard references from the IPCC (2001) volume assert that CO2 is the principal climate driver on modern as well as geological time scales. Although some of these cited publications (e.g., Mann et al., 1998) were questioned recently (Soon and Baliunas, 2003; McIntire ...
Analysis of trends in temperature and rainfall in selected
Analysis of trends in temperature and rainfall in selected

... Crowley (2000) observed that 41-64% of the decade-scale temperature variations in pre-1850 were due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities. However, greenhouse gas (GHG) effects accounted for most of the late 20th century climate changes which are manifested in global temperature inc ...
Framing Science
Framing Science

... in ways that remain true to the science but makes it personally meaningful to various audiences. They can also go beyond the fragmented media system by recruiting volunteer "science navigators," a national system of people armed with facts and recommendations who can create "word-of-mouth buzz." The ...
Slide 1
Slide 1

... alarmism and assumptions on CO2 and global temperature, we understand that the ongoing deforestation of the Amazon rain forest may have significant impacts in the regional climate system. It is also our understanding that alternative sources of energy should be promoted and Brazil has for over 30 ye ...
Modes of the wintertime Arctic temperature variability Report No. 343
Modes of the wintertime Arctic temperature variability Report No. 343

... rate in the Arctic as well as its seasonality (most pronounced wintertime SAT increase) is in agreement with anthropogenic climate change scenarios simulated by climate models [Räisänen, 2002]. At the same time, the very strong early century warming anomaly in the Arctic, which has only recently bee ...
Communication of V&A in national communications
Communication of V&A in national communications

... The National Communication (NC) needs to clearly communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings  Fine to describe methods and results of analyses  But, needs to synthesize and integrate results The NC needs to clearly communicate  Who and what is vulnerable  How that may vary across time and ...
Days(T1)
Days(T1)

... season even within the AEZ ...
PDF
PDF

... rose by 0.2% one period after the shock happened. The curve continues descending however, until about 12 years later it shows a significant negative influence on the temperature. The confidence band of sun activity is wide and includes zero for all time periods so it does not have a significant effe ...
Change - hvonstorch.de
Change - hvonstorch.de

... There are other perceptions of change: it provides opportunities; it is natural and integral part of the environmental system we live in. The environmental system is a system with enormous many degrees of freedom, many non-linearities – is short: is a stochastic system, which exhibits variations on ...
Stronger Evidence of Human Influence on Climate
Stronger Evidence of Human Influence on Climate

... inordinate amounts of time. The final from one chapter and group cannot be wording stated, “Many hundreds of scienreadily used by the others, the impacts of tists from many countries participated in climate change, for example, might be its preparation and review.” These kinds of assessed based on d ...
Using Model Output: Uncertainties and Probabilities
Using Model Output: Uncertainties and Probabilities

... run, and those same observations combined with perturbations from the future AOGCM for the scenario run. ...
Wage   et to fall unle     warming i   tackled
Wage et to fall unle warming i tackled

... with a 13°C peak for the ear when economie did et. “The data tell u that there are particular temperature where we human are reall good at producing tu ,” Dr urke a. “In countrie that are normall quite cold – motl wealth northern countrie – higher temperature are aociated with ...
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North Report

The North Report was a 2006 report evaluating reconstructions of the temperature record of the past two millennia, providing an overview of the state of the science and the implications for understanding of global warming. It was produced by a National Research Council committee, chaired by Gerald North, at the request of Representative Sherwood Boehlert as chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science.These reconstructions had been dubbed ""hockey stick graphs"" after the 1999 reconstruction by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH99), which used the methodology of their 1998 reconstruction covering 600 years (MBH98). A graph based on MBH99 was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), and became a focus of the global warming controversy over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. It was disputed by various contrarians, and in the politicisation of this hockey stick controversy the New York Times of 14 February 2005 hailed a paper by businessman Stephen McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick (MM05) as undermining the scientific consensus behind the Kyoto agreement. On 23 June 2005, Rep. Joe Barton, chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, with Ed Whitfield, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, wrote joint letters referring to issues raised by the Wall Street Journal article, and demanding that Mann, Bradley and Hughes provide full records on their data and methods, finances and careers, information about grants provided to the institutions they had worked for, and the exact computer codes used to generate their results. Boehlert said this was a ""misguided and illegitimate investigation"" into something that should properly be under the jurisdiction of the Science Committee, and in November 2005 after Barton dismissed the offer of an independent investigation organised by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Boehlert requested the review, which became the North Report.The North Report went through a rigorous review process, and was published on 22 June 2006. It concluded ""with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries"", justified by consistent evidence from a wide variety of geographically diverse proxies, but ""Less confidence can be placed in large-scale surface temperature reconstructions for the period from 900 to 1600"". It broadly agreed with the basic findings of the original MBH studies, which subsequently been supported by other reconstructions and proxy records, while emphasising uncertainties over earlier periods. The principal component analysis methodology that McIntyre and McKitrick had contested had a small tendency to bias results so was not recommended—but it had little influence on the final reconstructions, and other methods produced similar results.
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