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A fractal climate response function can simulate global average
A fractal climate response function can simulate global average

... produces estimates of the climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration. 2. Data and methods Temperature and forcing data were mostly obtained from public repositories, as detailed in Appendix 1. All computations in this study concern globally averaged temperatures. For the fits to tempera ...
The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the
The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the

... whether increased search effort would result in increased detection of small whelks at IV Reef and at Naples Reef. Divers increased their search time on transects and expanded the range of microhabitats sampled within the kelp forest (including overturning cobbles, sifting through patches of sand an ...
Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions
Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions

... the injected SO2 was spread globally by the stratospheric winds. The stratospheric meridional circulation transported the aerosols poleward. Ultimately, the sulfate reached the troposphere, where it was quickly washed out. Today, Tambora’s sulfate signal is still preserved in polar ice cores. In fac ...
Natural selection and climate change: temperature
Natural selection and climate change: temperature

... Mitton et al. 1989). Such environmental correlation of molecular marker diversity is interpreted as evidence of adaptive genetic differentiation (Linhart & Grant 1996; Nevo 2001). The opposing view, based on evidence gained from some of the same species, is that these correlations of alleles with pa ...
A Framework for Elucidating the Temperature Dependence of Fitness.
A Framework for Elucidating the Temperature Dependence of Fitness.

... kinetics may be driving the temperature responses of fitness components themselves. For instance, reproductive traits are likely to be affected by temperature effects on hormonal regulation (Nijhout 1994), and the survivorship of free-living stages are likely to be affected by temperature effects on ...
Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and
Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and

... temperatures for the months of February, March, or the entire winter season (defined here as December, January, February, and March [DJFM]); we also considered the number of days per winter with temperatures below −10°C, and the absolute minimum winter temperature, or the temperature of the coldest ...
EXAMINING THE UNINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
EXAMINING THE UNINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE

... assuming that farmers will not adjust their practices in the face of changed circumstances – the far less dramatic impacts after adaptation are hidden in the main report. It shows that the most vulnerable country would pay some ten percent of its annual income towards coastal protection, but omits t ...
Trophic amplification of climate warming
Trophic amplification of climate warming

... the North Sea on a routine monthly basis since 1946. Seawater enters the CPR through a front aperture and the plankton is retained on a moving band of silk gauze of mesh size 270 mm that is slowly wound into a tank of formalin. In the laboratory the silk gauze is cut into sections (a CPR sample), ea ...
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global

... 2. Lewandowsky, S., Gilles, G. & Vaughan, S. (2012). The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science. Nature Climate Change. 10.1038/10.1038/NCLIMATE1720 3. Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Howe, P. (2012) Climate change in the American mind ...
The role of mineral-dust aerosols in polar temperature amplification
The role of mineral-dust aerosols in polar temperature amplification

... predictions. With the example of mineral dust we show that some atmospheric aerosols experience an amplified highlatitude response to global changes as well, a phenomenon generally not captured by the models. Using a synthesis of observational and model data we reconstruct atmospheric dust concentra ...
The Relationship of Cloud Cover to Near
The Relationship of Cloud Cover to Near

... dubious physics yet still do the reconstruction reasonably well. Regretfully, if after such a verification the model is applied to climatic change assessment, the results will be unreliable. It is much better if the interannual variability of these fields and synoptic scale variability are well desc ...
Trophic amplification of climate warming
Trophic amplification of climate warming

... the North Sea on a routine monthly basis since 1946. Seawater enters the CPR through a front aperture and the plankton is retained on a moving band of silk gauze of mesh size 270 mm that is slowly wound into a tank of formalin. In the laboratory the silk gauze is cut into sections (a CPR sample), ea ...
Station Task Cards
Station Task Cards

... 1. As a group, look at graph 1. Talk about what you think they represent prior to looking at the questions for this station. 2. Feel free to ask each other questions about parts of the graph that you don’t understand or point out parts of the graph that you think are important. It is helpful to star ...
- Opus
- Opus

... is correct. Here, as the only difference between the two treatments is temperature, no difference in flowering time when measured in PTUs is expected across treatments if time to flower is a linear function of temperature, and temperature does not alter the threshold. ...
The temperature regimes of dry-season
The temperature regimes of dry-season

... sequence, surface and bottom water temperatures converged overnight, and the surface water layer became a few degrees warmer than the bottom in mid-afternoon. This sequence of waterhole water temperatures is characteristic of well mixed conditions. However, these conditions can change, as shown from ...
Summer 2015
Summer 2015

... the term “hiatus” will be used here to denote that slowdown), when the rate of global warming slowed compared to the previous two decades, was an artifact of problematic sea surface temperature (SST) data (Karl et al. 2015), lack of Arctic data (Cowtan and Way 2014), or both. Such claims indicate th ...
variations - US CLIVAR
variations - US CLIVAR

... the term “hiatus” will be used here to denote that slowdown), when the rate of global warming slowed compared to the previous two decades, was an artifact of problematic sea surface temperature (SST) data (Karl et al. 2015), lack of Arctic data (Cowtan and Way 2014), or both. Such claims indicate th ...
IPCC - unfccc
IPCC - unfccc

...  Higher tier methodologies should be used for Key Sectors  Additional attention to QA/QC of key sources  Resources are focused on sources with significant impact on total emission estimate  Best use of available resources  Reduce uncertainties as much as practical ...
THE ROLE OF LAND - SURFACE PROCESSES IN LOCAL, REGIONAL AND
THE ROLE OF LAND - SURFACE PROCESSES IN LOCAL, REGIONAL AND

... The impact of the drought on our farm, and most around us, is Major for the following reasons: − The late June rains came too late for our short growing season. Short season forage crops were planted or many fields not planted at all this year. These rains were a significant help to dryland pastures ...
Temperature responsiveness of seedlings
Temperature responsiveness of seedlings

... has the advantage of estimating RGRmax and to identify the causes of its variation under standard conditions (Villar et al. 2005). Nevertheless, most of these studies have been carried out at a single growth temperature (typically 20–25°C) or at different temperature treatments (e.g. Loveyes et  al. ...
Potential surface temperature and shallow groundwater temperature
Potential surface temperature and shallow groundwater temperature

... regression-based methods often have difficulty producing the observed variability in local climate predictands, a stochastic generator is used to increase the variance in the datasets. These two methods (i.e. DT and HMLR) were employed in this study. Output from GCMs can also be dynamically downscal ...
Appendix A. Statistical Issues Regarding Trends. From Synthesis
Appendix A. Statistical Issues Regarding Trends. From Synthesis

... Alternatively, there may be some physical process that 1979 through December 2004 (312 months or 2.6 decades). causes a rapid switch or change from one mode of behavior The total change is therefore 0.169x2.6 = 0.439ºC. to another. In such a case the overall behavior might best be described as a lin ...
reportedly biased - Galileo Movement
reportedly biased - Galileo Movement

... concerning climate science. Why? 4. Although Bacon’s ACIJ report was simply a survey and avoided assessing accuracy or factual basis of media reports, in her first submission to the Finkelstein inquiry, Bacon underlines the importance of factual accuracy in the media: “Commercial radio is one sector ...
Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow
Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

... Seattle, WA 98195-2700 Phone: 206.794.7946 Email: [email protected] ...
Present and future responses of growing degree days for
Present and future responses of growing degree days for

... forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and pro ...
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North Report

The North Report was a 2006 report evaluating reconstructions of the temperature record of the past two millennia, providing an overview of the state of the science and the implications for understanding of global warming. It was produced by a National Research Council committee, chaired by Gerald North, at the request of Representative Sherwood Boehlert as chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science.These reconstructions had been dubbed ""hockey stick graphs"" after the 1999 reconstruction by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH99), which used the methodology of their 1998 reconstruction covering 600 years (MBH98). A graph based on MBH99 was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), and became a focus of the global warming controversy over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. It was disputed by various contrarians, and in the politicisation of this hockey stick controversy the New York Times of 14 February 2005 hailed a paper by businessman Stephen McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick (MM05) as undermining the scientific consensus behind the Kyoto agreement. On 23 June 2005, Rep. Joe Barton, chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, with Ed Whitfield, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, wrote joint letters referring to issues raised by the Wall Street Journal article, and demanding that Mann, Bradley and Hughes provide full records on their data and methods, finances and careers, information about grants provided to the institutions they had worked for, and the exact computer codes used to generate their results. Boehlert said this was a ""misguided and illegitimate investigation"" into something that should properly be under the jurisdiction of the Science Committee, and in November 2005 after Barton dismissed the offer of an independent investigation organised by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Boehlert requested the review, which became the North Report.The North Report went through a rigorous review process, and was published on 22 June 2006. It concluded ""with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries"", justified by consistent evidence from a wide variety of geographically diverse proxies, but ""Less confidence can be placed in large-scale surface temperature reconstructions for the period from 900 to 1600"". It broadly agreed with the basic findings of the original MBH studies, which subsequently been supported by other reconstructions and proxy records, while emphasising uncertainties over earlier periods. The principal component analysis methodology that McIntyre and McKitrick had contested had a small tendency to bias results so was not recommended—but it had little influence on the final reconstructions, and other methods produced similar results.
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