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x - Royal Holloway
x - Royal Holloway

... outcome of each is ‘success’ or ‘failure’, probability of success on any given trial is p. Define discrete r.v. n = number of successes (0 ≤ n ≤ N). Probability of a specific outcome (in order), e.g. ‘ssfsf’ is ...
Prof. Dr. Somesh Kumar Department of Mathematics Indian Institute
Prof. Dr. Somesh Kumar Department of Mathematics Indian Institute

A Beginner`s Guide to Earthquake Fragility
A Beginner`s Guide to Earthquake Fragility

... Figure 15. Accounting for variability in design within the asset class, one can extend PBEE to estimate seismic vulnerability of an asset class ............................................................................ 27 Figure 16. Example analytical vulnerability function for highrise post-1980 ...
Every Property of Hyperfinite Graphs is Testable
Every Property of Hyperfinite Graphs is Testable

here
here

... be “public”—i.e., known to everyone—and what needs to be “private”—i.e., kept secret. In the classical approach—security by obscurity—all of the above algorithms, Gen, Enc, Dec, and the generated key k were kept private; the idea was of course that the less information we give to the adversary, the ...
STOC2011.
STOC2011.

Symmetry Principles in Polyadic Inductive Logic
Symmetry Principles in Polyadic Inductive Logic

1 Sample Space and Probability
1 Sample Space and Probability

Choosing The More Likely Hypothesis
Choosing The More Likely Hypothesis

Baker, Charles R.; (1971)Zero-one laws for Gaussian measures on Banach space."
Baker, Charles R.; (1971)Zero-one laws for Gaussian measures on Banach space."

Intransitive Dice
Intransitive Dice

pdf
pdf

... as evidence that ϕ is true; the probability that ϕ is true also depends in part on the prior probability of ϕ. Evidence has been widely studied in the literature on inductive logic [Kyburg 1983]. We focus on the evidence contributed specifically by a randomized knowledge algorithm. In a companion pa ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES COMPARING THE POINT PREDICTIONS AND SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES COMPARING THE POINT PREDICTIONS AND SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Dennis Volpano Georey Smith Computer Science Department School of Computer Science
Dennis Volpano Georey Smith Computer Science Department School of Computer Science

... semantics. Finally, we assume that no while command occurs in a protected section. The reason for this is to simplify our probabilistic semantics. With protect, execution of a thread may block: ...
Full Article as PDF
Full Article as PDF

Chapter 4: Simple random samples and their properties
Chapter 4: Simple random samples and their properties

CHAPTER 1 0 Deductive Reasoning
CHAPTER 1 0 Deductive Reasoning

... not the conclusion. If the arguer can show this, then the argument's premises really do imply their conclusion. The two definitions above try to codify these ideas. In criticizing an argument whose conclusion is intended to follow with certainty, the critic might try to show that there is no inconsi ...
Draft Endorsement Advice
Draft Endorsement Advice

Conditional Prediction without a Coarsening at Random condition
Conditional Prediction without a Coarsening at Random condition

... reach conclusions about this data. One possibility of incomplete data is coarse data. This means that one does not observe the real outcome of a random event, but only a subset of all possible outcomes. An example frequently occurs in questionnaires. People have to state if their date of birth lies ...
The aggregation of propositional attitudes: towards a
The aggregation of propositional attitudes: towards a

Comparative Value and the Weight of Reasons
Comparative Value and the Weight of Reasons

... their creations, which they may view as surviving past their death, and hence transcending their welfare. In sum, there are a wide variety of goals and values, both self-interested and other-regarding, that people may value above their own welfare. Now it may be that utilitarianism, with utility int ...
Ethics, Evolution, and the Coincidence Problem: a Skeptical Appraisal
Ethics, Evolution, and the Coincidence Problem: a Skeptical Appraisal

BAYESIAN AND DOMINANT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION IN
BAYESIAN AND DOMINANT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION IN

On the magnitude of asymptotic probability measures of
On the magnitude of asymptotic probability measures of

Full Text - University of British Columbia
Full Text - University of British Columbia

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Ars Conjectandi



Ars Conjectandi (Latin for The Art of Conjecturing) is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jakob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way, and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.Bernoulli wrote the text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens, Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, and Blaise Pascal. He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations—the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way—as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of the eponymous Bernoulli numbers, for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value, were also a significant portion of this important work.
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