The Value of Using Imprecise Probabilities in
... Interpretations of Probability. Most engineers are familiar with the mathematics of probability, but many have not been formally exposed to the competing interpretations of probability. The philosophical arguments for or against different interpretations can be quite passionate. The interpretations ...
... Interpretations of Probability. Most engineers are familiar with the mathematics of probability, but many have not been formally exposed to the competing interpretations of probability. The philosophical arguments for or against different interpretations can be quite passionate. The interpretations ...
u t c o r R esearch e p o r t
... Throughout our paper larger values of random variables are considered to be preferable. In this context, risk measures are often referred to as acceptability functionals, since higher values indicate less risky, i.e., more acceptable random outcomes. In the literature the opposite convention (where ...
... Throughout our paper larger values of random variables are considered to be preferable. In this context, risk measures are often referred to as acceptability functionals, since higher values indicate less risky, i.e., more acceptable random outcomes. In the literature the opposite convention (where ...
Running head: SIMPLICITY IN EXPLANATION Occam`s Rattle
... simpler alternative (one disease). Lombrozo (2007) found that adults were sensitive to baserate information, but only preferred the complex explanation when it was much more probable than the simpler alternative. However, both Lagnado (1994) and Lombrozo (2007) found that when participants were exp ...
... simpler alternative (one disease). Lombrozo (2007) found that adults were sensitive to baserate information, but only preferred the complex explanation when it was much more probable than the simpler alternative. However, both Lagnado (1994) and Lombrozo (2007) found that when participants were exp ...
General Database Statistics Using Entropy Maximization
... statistical assertions has a well-defined semantics (except, of course, when it is inconsistent); thus, a statistical program is treated as a whole, as opposed to a set of separate synopses. Second, every query has a well defined cardinality estimate; there is no restriction on the query, and the qu ...
... statistical assertions has a well-defined semantics (except, of course, when it is inconsistent); thus, a statistical program is treated as a whole, as opposed to a set of separate synopses. Second, every query has a well defined cardinality estimate; there is no restriction on the query, and the qu ...
Indeterminism and the contrastive theory of explanation Petri
... and non-science. Salmon has not provided us any indication as to how this perennial problem can be solved without the Leibniz principle. Furthermore, it is unclear why we should raise the issue of demarcation at all. An appeal to virtus dormitiva is a bad explanation outside science as well. We shou ...
... and non-science. Salmon has not provided us any indication as to how this perennial problem can be solved without the Leibniz principle. Furthermore, it is unclear why we should raise the issue of demarcation at all. An appeal to virtus dormitiva is a bad explanation outside science as well. We shou ...
Lecture notes on Spatial Random Permutations
... forgetting the precise numbers lying in each cycle. To this end, the following combinatorial exercise is useful. Exercise 2.1. Let∑π be a uniform permutation on n elements. For every r = (r1 , r2 , . . . , rn ) such that rj ≥ 0, nj=1 jrj = n we have ...
... forgetting the precise numbers lying in each cycle. To this end, the following combinatorial exercise is useful. Exercise 2.1. Let∑π be a uniform permutation on n elements. For every r = (r1 , r2 , . . . , rn ) such that rj ≥ 0, nj=1 jrj = n we have ...
The origins and legacy of Kolmogorov`s Grundbegriffe
... also in his philosophy of probability—how he proposed to relate the mathematical formalism to the real world. In a 1939 letter to Fréchet, which we reproduce in §A.2, Kolmogorov wrote, “You are also right in attributing to me the opinion that the formal axiomatization should be accompanied by an an ...
... also in his philosophy of probability—how he proposed to relate the mathematical formalism to the real world. In a 1939 letter to Fréchet, which we reproduce in §A.2, Kolmogorov wrote, “You are also right in attributing to me the opinion that the formal axiomatization should be accompanied by an an ...
Name Date ______ AP Biology Chi
... • The Rule of Multiplication: The chance that two or more independent events will occur together is equal to the product of the probabilities of each individual event. Question: What are the chances of drawing a red nine from a standard deck of cards? Answer: 1/26 (1 chance in 26), because there is ...
... • The Rule of Multiplication: The chance that two or more independent events will occur together is equal to the product of the probabilities of each individual event. Question: What are the chances of drawing a red nine from a standard deck of cards? Answer: 1/26 (1 chance in 26), because there is ...
Reachability in Stochastic Timed Games
... called the 21 -player game model (there are no ♦-locations nor -locations). We assume a stochastic timed game is given, and we play the game as follows. At ♦-locations, player ♦ chooses the next move (delay and transitions to be taken), at -locations, player chooses the next move, and at -locat ...
... called the 21 -player game model (there are no ♦-locations nor -locations). We assume a stochastic timed game is given, and we play the game as follows. At ♦-locations, player ♦ chooses the next move (delay and transitions to be taken), at -locations, player chooses the next move, and at -locat ...
DNA fingerprinting for forensic identification: potential effects on data
... In forensic applications of DNA fingerprints, a specimen's pattern of DNA fragment sizes is compared with a collection of such patterns from some set of people. A measure of similarity between any two such patterns is defined. Then a probability of observing, by chance alone, a given level of simila ...
... In forensic applications of DNA fingerprints, a specimen's pattern of DNA fragment sizes is compared with a collection of such patterns from some set of people. A measure of similarity between any two such patterns is defined. Then a probability of observing, by chance alone, a given level of simila ...
Ars Conjectandi
Ars Conjectandi (Latin for The Art of Conjecturing) is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jakob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way, and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.Bernoulli wrote the text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens, Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, and Blaise Pascal. He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations—the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way—as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of the eponymous Bernoulli numbers, for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value, were also a significant portion of this important work.