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File - Glorybeth Becker
File - Glorybeth Becker

... semester of Calculus, and the rest have taken two or more semesters of Calculus. The professor randomly assigns students to groups of three to work on the project for the course. What is the probability that the first groupmate you meet has studied a) two or more semesters of calculus? b) some Calcu ...
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... Although simple enough, Bayes’ theorem has an interesting interpretation: P(A) represents the a-priori probability of the event A. Suppose B has occurred, and assume that A and B are not independent. How can this new information be used to update our knowledge about A? Bayes’ rule in (1-46) take in ...
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... the P (A). Let’s say I toss a fair coin. I tell you that I got a tail. I then give you the coin to toss. Does the knowledge that I got a tail affect what you think the chance is that you will get a head? Intuitively, two events A and B are independent if the event B does not have any influcence on t ...
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... sheet of paper, writing heads as “1” and tails as “0”. The second group is instructed to create a sequence of 100 “0”s ans “1”s that are intended to look like the result of coin flips- but they are to do this without flipping any coins or randomization device- and to write this sequence on a sheet o ...
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Ars Conjectandi



Ars Conjectandi (Latin for The Art of Conjecturing) is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jakob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way, and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.Bernoulli wrote the text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens, Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, and Blaise Pascal. He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations—the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way—as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of the eponymous Bernoulli numbers, for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value, were also a significant portion of this important work.
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