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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587021/ Russia Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Recovery Firmly On Course The Russian recovery will continue to strengthen through 2011, with the economy forecast to expand by 4.3%, from 4.0% in 2010. This will be driven increasingly by private consumption and investment, though higher oil prices will also cause exports to make a strong contribution. Government spending should also contribute positively, as the Kremlin attempts to shore up support ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Over the long run, Russia is forecast to remain a strong convergence play, with real GDP growth outstripping that of the global average. Moreover, we expect domestic drivers of growth to become increasingly important over the next decade, which should create opportunities for investors in a number of sectors, including retail, banking, autos and pharmaceuticals. The deadly bomb attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport on January 24 is likely to result in a hefty domestic crackdown, with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin keen to protect his record of improving security ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections. On the social side, we caution that things could get ugly, with tensions between Russian nationalist groups and immigrants from the North Caucasus (where the suicide bomber is thought to have come from) already high. The market reaction will be much more muted, with similar incidents in recent years having failed to significantly concern investors in Russia. Merchandise trade data for November show the surplus continuing to tick higher, and we expect this to remain the case into 2011 on the back of higher oil prices. With the current account also having posted a healthy surplus in 2010 according to a preliminary estimate by the Central Bank of Russia, we reiterate our bullish rouble view. O ur view that the recovery in the Russian banking sector would remain relatively sluggish has played out, with real asset and loan growth rates remaining in the low single digits. We expect this to continue through to end-H111 at least, due to elevated inflation and weak consumer confidence, in line with our expectations for household consumption to struggle through the first half of the year. That said, we reiterate our view that the medium-term prospects for the Russian banking sector look extremely healthy, with credit demand from households and businesses likely to rise substantially. Contents: Executive Summary Recovery Firmly On Course Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Airport Attack: Security Crackdown Ahead The deadly bomb attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport on January 24 is likely to result in a hefty domestic crackdown, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin keen to protect his record of improving security ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections Table: The North Caucasis: Profile Of The Republics Foreign Policy PR Offensive Gathering Steam The US Senate’s ratification of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty on December 22 is a concrete milestone in improving relations between Russia and the United States Table: Political Overview Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Motoring On Into 2015 We hold to our forecast for the Russian economy to grow by 4.3% in 2011, slightly above consensus, driven by elevated oil prices, strong investment, government spending and a pick-up in consumption by the second half of the year Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Monetary policy Gearing Up For A Rate Hike Following the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)’s decision to hike reserve requirements on January 31, we reiterate our view that an increase in the benchmark refinancing rate will occur by end-Q111 Table: MONETARY POLICY Balance Of Payments Higher Oil Prices Boosting Exports Merchandise trade data for November show the surplus continuing to tick higher, and we expect this to remain the case into 2011 on the back of higher oil prices Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT Fiscal policy Oil Prices To Boost Fiscal Accounts We expect Russia to post a 3.1% of GDP fiscal deficit in 2011, revised from 3.6% previously Table: FISCAL POLICY Currency Forecast RUB: Room For Further Gains Industry Forecast Banking: Major Growth On The Cards Our view that the recovery in the Russian banking sector would remain relatively sluggish has played out, with real asset and loan growth rates remaining in the low single digits Table: BMI RUSSIA CURRENCY FORECASTS Table: EXCHANGE RATE Industry Forecast Improved Banking Outlook As Economic Growth Firms Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Russian Economy To 2020 Trend Growth To Settle Lower As Drivers Shift To Domestic Demand Over our 10-year forecast horizon, Russian trend growth is expected to slow markedly, and we project real GDP growth to average average 4.2% between 2016 and 2020 Table: RUSSIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Infrastructure Market Outlook Table: Labour Force Quality Table: Em erging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows Table: Trade And Investment Ratings TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Operational Risk Chapter 5: Key Sectors Consumer Electronics Table: Consumer Electronics Overview Freight Transport Table: Air Freight, 2007-2015 Table: Road Freight, 2007-2015 Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2015 Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CH G Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Chapter 7: Sector Forecast Appendix Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators Table: Freight Key Indicators Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587021/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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