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Why Will CCP Seek Foreign Policy
Pills for Its Domestic Pains
----And Why That Won’t Work
JIAN ZHANG
School of Government
Peking University
The Economy Horse Is Trotting
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The growth rate of GDP slid from 10% to 7.5%
Demographic dividend gone
Structural upgrade tough and unsure
Saddled with state capitalism, the private sector is struggling.
Spur policy is no longer affordable.
Good stabling is what we really need.
But, the obstacles are all political: hukou, one child policy,
privatization of land, SOE reform etc..
The Civil Society is Contentious
• The anti-Pareto optimal reform since late 1990’s
• Incidences of “collective events” increased from 9,000 in 1993
to 100,000 in 2009
• And we all know the number is underreported.
• Not only the down-trodden are protesting,
• The well-to-do are also making noise,
• Or, even worse, they are leaving the country.
• Again, major political reforms are needed to fix the
redistributive structure and protect basis rights.
The Lure of Foreign Policy Stunts
• It is an old trick for politicians, authoritarian or
not.
• Historically, nationalism sells well in China.
• Now, after 35 years growth, increased national
power,
• And inflated pride/arrogance among the
population and the leadership
• Some signs of Xi Jinping pursuing assertive foreign
policy
• If war on terror hurts civil liberties in US, a war
with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam (so many! so
convenient!) etc. would help clamp down civil
society challenges in China.
A Pain Killer Is Not a Cure
• It is not a sure thing for China to win in any game, even with
its smaller neighbors.
• Foreign policy crisis will hurt the external environment for a
continued economic growth of China.
• A mobilized nationalist sentiment is hard to rein back in, and
may well spill over onto domestic topics.
• The morning after the passion, domestic troubles remain.
• In conclusion: assertive rhetoric, unpredictable acts