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Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Impacts and Solutions for Great Lakes Communities and Ecosystems http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes Reports for California, Gulf Coast States, Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org http://www.ucsusa.org Take Home Messages: 1. Climate change is real, and is changing the character of the Great Lakes region 2. Climate change magnifies existing environmental problems 3. Science-based, common-sense solutions are available now 1. Evidence of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region • Temperatures are rising, especially in winter • Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent • Winters are shorter • Spring comes earlier • Shorter duration of ice cover on small and large lakes especially Plant Hardiness Zones have moved 1990 vs 2006 Extreme rainfall events (24-hr and 7-day) are becoming more frequent Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Ice Cover (Days) 180 142 Years (1856 - 1998) 150 1 Year 120 90 60 30 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 From John Magnuson Magnuson April 2001 Common (but unusual) events on Lakes Mendota and Monona Winter of 2001-2002 Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Ice Cover (Days) 180 142 Years (1856 - 1998) 150 10 Years 120 90 60 30 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 J. Magnuson Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Ice Cover (Days) 180 J. Magnuson 142 Years (1856 - 1998) 50 Years (1949 -1998) 150 120 90 60 Dynamics from El Niño Years 30 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Trend caused by Global Change Ice Cover (Days) 180 142 Years (1856 - 1998) 150 120 90 60 30 Corresponds Corresponds to to ~1°C ~1°C inin Air Air Temperature Temperature per per 100 100 Years Years 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 J. Magnuson Lakes and Rivers are Freezing Later, and Thawing Earlier 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan Freeze 1 Feb (37 of the 39 time series are in the direction of warming) 1 Mar 1 Apr Breakup 1 May Modified from J. Magnuson et al. 2000 for IPCC 2001 1 Jun 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100 • Temperature – Winter 5-12 °F (3-7 °C) – Summer 5-20 °F (3-11 °C) – Extreme heat more common • Precipitation – Winter, spring increasing – Summer, fall decreasing – drier soils, more droughts • More extreme events – storms, floods • Ice cover decline will continue • Boreal Forests likely to disappear in G.L. region Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel” summers The Changing Character of Lakes, Streams, & Fish • Cold-water fish will decline, warm-water species move north • Summer “dead zones” and fish kills will increase • Greater susceptibility to invasive species • Water levels likely to decline Gerald C. Bucher “Dead Zones” & Fish Kills will increase Great Lakes Regional Production ~$2 Trillion What is at risk? (Tourism, recreation) Values in millions of $ 2. Climate Change Impacts Will Not Occur in a Vacuum • Population is growing • Increased urbanization & sprawl • Landscape fragmentation • Air and Water pollution • Social challenges • Geographic limits Michigan Land Use, 1980 Built Agriculture Other vegetation Forest Lake Wetland 2001 Michigan Land Resource Project Michigan Land Use Projections, 2040 Built Agriculture Other vegetation Forest Lake Wetland 2001 Michigan Land Resource Project Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources • Small streams & wetlands likely to dry up – loss of biodiversity • Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes • Lake levels expected to decline • Pollution from PCBs and heavy metals will increase as more dredging is required Exacerbation of Existing Problems Human Health • Cold-related health problems will decline while heatrelated morbidity and mortality will increase • Extreme heat more likely: – 40+ days by 2100 >90°F (32 °C) – 25+ days by 2100 >97°F (36 °C) • Higher ground-level ozone concentrations • Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more frequent and widespread Meeting the Climate Challenge • Avoiding the unmanageable • Managing the unavoidable 3. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable No-regrets solutions available now Three-pronged approach to deal with climate change: 1. Reducing our emissions 2. Minimizing pressure on the environment 3. Planning and preparing to manage the impacts of a changing climate Renewable Portfolio Standards MN: Xcel 1250 MW by 2013 WI: 10% by 2015 NY: 25% by 2013 MT: 15% by 2015 NV: 20% by 2015 IA: 105 MW IL: 8% by 2013 † CO: 10% by 2015 ME: 30% by 2000 VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012 MA: 4% New by 2009 RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 10% by 2010 NJ: 20% by 2020 PA: 18% by 2020 DE: 10% by 2019 MD: 7.5% by 2019 DC: 11% by 2022 CA: 33% by 2020 NM: 10% AZ: 15% by 2011 by 2025 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 HI: 20% by 2020 Barry Rabe; PEW Center †IL implements its RPS through voluntary utility commitments The projected costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels are low in terms of Global Gross Domestic Product We delay the time we become 10 times richer from 2100 to 2102 Global GDP - Business as usual 75-90% reduction in GHG by 2100 costs 1-4% GDP; GDP grows by 2-3%/yr; environmental benefits not included Azar, C. and S.H. Schneider. 2002. Ecological Economics 42: 73–80. Personal Solutions • Be carbon conscious • Look for the Energy Star label • Choose clean power • Unplug underused appliances • Get a home energy audit • Light bulbs matter • Take the stairs • Buy good wood • Let policy makers know you are concerned about global warming Summary • Climate change must be considered in preserving the character of any locality or region. • “Saving” the Great Lakes or the northern forests or the rainforest requires both policy and management initiatives. • Science tells us that the longer we wait, the larger the negative impacts will be. Common sense solutions are available now. Take home point: “Nothing happens in a vacuum…”