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Moving people strategy: solutions to the nation’s long term (urban) transport problems Professor John Stanley Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies Faculty of Economics and Business The University of Sydney and Bus Industry Confederation October 2008. Scope 1. Summarise urban person transport problems 2. Suggest a range of solutions 3. Consider delivery responsibilities 4. Some conclusions 1. Urban person transport problems 1. 2. 3. 4. Congestion/competitiveness Climate change contribution Social exclusion Coping with patronage growth! 1-3 = The externalities problem! 1.1 Congestion/competitiveness • Economic cost of traffic congestion was $10b in 2005 (BTRE) – Doubling by 2020 – Economic waste (1% of GDP) – Austroads data suggests average speeds are declining • Impacts adversely on livability and competitiveness for high growth, knowledge-intensive industries • Also a problem on public transport, with rapid demand growth 1.2 Climate change • Land transport third largest source and second fastest growing source • Road transport accounts for almost 90% • Melbourne more than double London, per capita (3t cf 1.2t) Waste -11.4% Industrial Processes +17.7% Fugitive Emissions +18.1% Land Use -70.7% Transport 1990 2006 +27.4% Agriculture +3.8% Stationary energy +47.3% 0 50 100 150 200 250 Emissions (Mt CO2-e) 300 350 1.3 Social exclusion • The demand for transport (mobility) is primarily a derived demand – Derived from a desire to work, shop, meet friends, visit a doctor, etc (i.e. a desire for accessibility) • Lack of transport (or poor mobility) can inhibit the capacity to undertake the activities from which DT derives • Accessibility differs between locations and groups • This can contribute to (or even cause) social exclusion, impacting negatively on well-being Value judgment • Social exclusion refers to a person’s inability to fully participate in society • Proposition = dealing with specific origins of SE can increase inclusion and wellbeing • Value judgment: all people have the right to a decent basic level of mobility, irrespective of personal circumstance - as a fundamental prerequisite for being able to enjoy the opportunities afforded by our society Varying trip rates Trip Rates from BAV Warrnambool Case Study (2004) People with disability Aged in hostel Seniors Deakin Residential students Students outside W'bool Secondary students 0 0.5 1 1.5 Return trips/day 2 VAMPIRE (Dodgson and Sipe) 1.4 Patronage growth (% 97-07) (Source: Peter Newman) 2.1 Some solutions: road congestion (1) • Time to reform road pricing – Fuel charge (carbon price) to cover GHG costs plus road damage at light vehicle end – Mass-distance charge for heavier vehicles – Differential registration charges for air pollution – GPS-based congestion pricing – Abolish excise • Use congestion charge revenue to substantially improve trunk PT services as alternatives – Some targeting of transport disadvantaged Congestion solutions (2) • Complement pricing reform with other demand management techniques (for more efficient use) – Network operating plans, HOT/HOV lanes, TravelSmart,etc • Selective road capacity additions – e.g. complete ring roads; improve some arterial capacity in fast growth areas • Better integrate land use and transport planning (see below) 2.2 Climate change (GHG) solutions Climate change solutions (2) 2.3 Social exclusion • Minimum public transport service levels are a key element linking transport disadvantage with social inclusion (delivering a social justice approach) – Deals with many issues of mobility related exclusion – But fare levels, physical access, etc may still be issues requiring attention • Ultimately a political process to choose MSLs – Informed by involvement of target groups • Rural/regional/outer metro areas most concerns MSL in outer Melbourne • To give most “at risk” (of TD leading to SE) people a chance to do most things at most times – Hourly service frequency within 400m • Weekdays from 6.00am to 9.00pm • Saturdays 6.00am to midnight • Sundays 8.00am to 8.00pm – Target ~30 minutes • Longer term, focus much more on urban design for walking and cycling (Smart growth, urban densification, etc) Effectiveness of MSL 59.5% Patronage Growth (12 months to May 2008) 30% 26.2% 25% 20% 14.3% 15% 9.1% 10% 5.7% 5% 1.5% 6.3% 5.0% 3.0% 0% -5% -1.5% local (5 days/ week) local (6 days/ week) local (7 days/ week) Full Unchanged routes SmartBus Peak (city) Safety net Safety net Peak (city) SmartBus tranche 1 tranche 2 Upgraded routes 2.4 Land use/transport integration The “linear city” as an alternative to sprawl: Curitiba Melbourne example (Rob Adams) (1) Melbourne example (2) Scope to cater for 2m extra people 2.5 Institutional arrangements • STO model • The tactical level failure – Need for well-based strategic land use/transport plans • Placement of the T – Departments when well functioning – Separate agency, with the $, if major change needed 2.6 Melbourne Example: Future premium bus routes Eppi Epping ng Sydenham Sydenham D Doncast oncaster er C Ciittyy Werri Werribee bee BRT BRT D DART ART C Com omm mut uter er Express Express New New Sm Smart artBus Bus Non-Orbi Non-Orbittal al Sm Smart artBus Bus Red Red Orbi Orbittal al Sm Smart artBus Bus Green Green Orbi Orbittal al Sm Smart artBus Bus Bl Blue ue Orbi Orbittal al Sm Smart artBus Bus Yel Yelllow ow Orbi Orbittal al Sm Smart artBus Bus Trai Trainn NOTE: NOTE: Local Local rout routes es not not show shownn Fount Fountai ainn Gat Gatee Frankst Frankston on Melbourne possible future local bus services Possible future Now Up to 15 mins 16 to 22 mins 24 to 34 mins 34 to 44 mins 48 to 60 mins Over 60 mins Train Role of the Commonwealth • Time to get involved in urban person transport – National interest dimension of competitiveness and climate change impacts (also exclusion) • NTC to prepare and manage a National Transport Policy – Through ATC • Infrastructure Australia funding as a lever to drive change within this policy framework (watch scope of IA) – Long term land use/transport plans and reformed road pricing (study at first) as funding pre-conditions – Support on capital side, for completing ring roads, major rail upgrades, BRT, bus fleet upgrade (based on Guidelines) , smart systems – Performance monitoring 3. Conclusions • States to implement integrated land use/transport plans – TOD, including linear city model to be supported, with high quality urban design, walkability, etc • • • • Prepare for road pricing reform Complete major ring roads Supportive demand management Substantially upgrade urban PT infrastructure and services (some metros, BRT, increased frequencies) • NTC (through ATC) and IA as drivers of a national approach