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Moving people strategy: solutions
to the nation’s long term (urban)
transport problems
Professor John Stanley
Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies
Faculty of Economics and Business
The University of Sydney
and Bus Industry Confederation
October 2008.
Scope
1. Summarise urban person transport
problems
2. Suggest a range of solutions
3. Consider delivery responsibilities
4. Some conclusions
1. Urban person transport problems
1.
2.
3.
4.
Congestion/competitiveness
Climate change contribution
Social exclusion
Coping with patronage growth!
1-3 = The externalities problem!
1.1 Congestion/competitiveness
• Economic cost of traffic congestion was $10b in
2005 (BTRE)
– Doubling by 2020
– Economic waste (1% of GDP)
– Austroads data suggests average speeds are declining
• Impacts adversely on livability and competitiveness
for high growth, knowledge-intensive industries
• Also a problem on public transport, with rapid
demand growth
1.2 Climate change
• Land transport third
largest source and
second fastest growing
source
• Road transport accounts
for almost 90%
• Melbourne more than
double London, per capita
(3t cf 1.2t)
Waste
-11.4%
Industrial Processes
+17.7%
Fugitive Emissions
+18.1%
Land Use
-70.7%
Transport
1990
2006
+27.4%
Agriculture
+3.8%
Stationary energy
+47.3%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Emissions (Mt CO2-e)
300
350
1.3 Social exclusion
• The demand for transport (mobility) is primarily a derived
demand
– Derived from a desire to work, shop, meet friends, visit a doctor,
etc (i.e. a desire for accessibility)
• Lack of transport (or poor mobility) can inhibit the
capacity to undertake the activities from which DT derives
• Accessibility differs between locations and groups
• This can contribute to (or even cause) social exclusion,
impacting negatively on well-being
Value judgment
• Social exclusion refers to a person’s inability to
fully participate in society
• Proposition = dealing with specific origins of SE
can increase inclusion and wellbeing
• Value judgment: all people have the right to a
decent basic level of mobility, irrespective of
personal circumstance
- as a fundamental prerequisite for being able to enjoy
the opportunities afforded by our society
Varying trip rates
Trip Rates from BAV Warrnambool
Case Study (2004)
People with disability
Aged in hostel
Seniors
Deakin Residential students
Students outside W'bool
Secondary students
0
0.5
1
1.5
Return trips/day
2
VAMPIRE (Dodgson and Sipe)
1.4 Patronage growth (% 97-07)
(Source: Peter Newman)
2.1 Some solutions: road congestion (1)
• Time to reform road pricing
– Fuel charge (carbon price) to cover GHG costs plus
road damage at light vehicle end
– Mass-distance charge for heavier vehicles
– Differential registration charges for air pollution
– GPS-based congestion pricing
– Abolish excise
• Use congestion charge revenue to substantially
improve trunk PT services as alternatives
– Some targeting of transport disadvantaged
Congestion solutions (2)
• Complement pricing reform with other demand
management techniques (for more efficient use)
– Network operating plans, HOT/HOV lanes,
TravelSmart,etc
• Selective road capacity additions
– e.g. complete ring roads; improve some arterial
capacity in fast growth areas
• Better integrate land use and transport planning
(see below)
2.2 Climate change (GHG) solutions
Climate change solutions (2)
2.3 Social exclusion
• Minimum public transport service levels are a key
element linking transport disadvantage with social
inclusion (delivering a social justice approach)
– Deals with many issues of mobility related exclusion
– But fare levels, physical access, etc may still be issues
requiring attention
• Ultimately a political process to choose MSLs
– Informed by involvement of target groups
• Rural/regional/outer metro areas most concerns
MSL in outer Melbourne
• To give most “at risk” (of TD leading to SE)
people a chance to do most things at most times
– Hourly service frequency within 400m
• Weekdays from 6.00am to 9.00pm
• Saturdays 6.00am to midnight
• Sundays 8.00am to 8.00pm
– Target ~30 minutes
• Longer term, focus much more on urban design
for walking and cycling (Smart growth, urban
densification, etc)
Effectiveness of MSL
59.5%
Patronage Growth (12 months to May 2008)
30%
26.2%
25%
20%
14.3%
15%
9.1%
10%
5.7%
5%
1.5%
6.3%
5.0%
3.0%
0%
-5%
-1.5%
local
(5 days/
week)
local
(6 days/
week)
local
(7 days/
week)
Full
Unchanged routes
SmartBus Peak (city) Safety net Safety net Peak (city) SmartBus
tranche 1 tranche 2
Upgraded routes
2.4 Land use/transport integration
The “linear city” as an
alternative to sprawl:
Curitiba
Melbourne example (Rob Adams) (1)
Melbourne example (2)
Scope to
cater for 2m
extra
people
2.5 Institutional arrangements
• STO model
• The tactical level failure
– Need for well-based strategic land
use/transport plans
• Placement of the T
– Departments when well functioning
– Separate agency, with the $, if major change
needed
2.6 Melbourne Example: Future premium bus routes
Eppi
Epping
ng
Sydenham
Sydenham
D
Doncast
oncaster
er
C
Ciittyy
Werri
Werribee
bee
BRT
BRT
D
DART
ART
C
Com
omm
mut
uter
er Express
Express
New
New Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Non-Orbi
Non-Orbittal
al Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Red
Red Orbi
Orbittal
al Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Green
Green Orbi
Orbittal
al Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Bl
Blue
ue Orbi
Orbittal
al Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Yel
Yelllow
ow Orbi
Orbittal
al Sm
Smart
artBus
Bus
Trai
Trainn
NOTE:
NOTE: Local
Local rout
routes
es not
not show
shownn
Fount
Fountai
ainn Gat
Gatee
Frankst
Frankston
on
Melbourne possible future local bus services
Possible future
Now
Up to 15 mins
16 to 22 mins
24 to 34 mins
34 to 44 mins
48 to 60 mins
Over 60 mins
Train
Role of the Commonwealth
• Time to get involved in urban person transport
– National interest dimension of competitiveness and climate
change impacts (also exclusion)
• NTC to prepare and manage a National Transport Policy
– Through ATC
• Infrastructure Australia funding as a lever to drive change
within this policy framework (watch scope of IA)
– Long term land use/transport plans and reformed road pricing
(study at first) as funding pre-conditions
– Support on capital side, for completing ring roads, major rail
upgrades, BRT, bus fleet upgrade (based on Guidelines) , smart
systems
– Performance monitoring
3. Conclusions
• States to implement integrated land use/transport plans
– TOD, including linear city model to be supported, with high
quality urban design, walkability, etc
•
•
•
•
Prepare for road pricing reform
Complete major ring roads
Supportive demand management
Substantially upgrade urban PT infrastructure and
services (some metros, BRT, increased frequencies)
• NTC (through ATC) and IA as drivers of a national
approach