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James Gregory Public Lectures
Future Programme:
1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller
“Life: Creation or Evolution?”
2. October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward
"God, Science and the New Atheism"
3. February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson
"God and the Big Bang”
4. April 29, 2010 -- Bill Newsome
"The Mind: Brain or Spirit?"
By
John
John Houghton
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Global Warming is it real and what can we do?
John Houghton
James Gregory Lecture
University of St Andrews
19 February 2009
SPACESHIP EARTH
• Spaceship Economy
or
• Cowboy Economy
after Prof Kenneth Boulding 1966
Sustainability
• Not cheating our children
• Not cheating our neighbours
• Not cheating the rest of creation
The Science of Global Warming
The underlying physics of global warming
(known for 200 years)
Solar radiation
Long-wave
radiation
The Greenhouse Effect
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Changes in CO2 over 10,000 years
from ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red line)
From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Scenarios of Future Changes in Climate
From IPCC AR4 2007
Some main impacts of climate change
• More intense heat waves
• Sea level rise
• More intense hydrological cycle
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European Heatwave 2003
- JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90
From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
European heat-wave 2003 - 20,000 died
Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003
Analysis shows it likely that most of the
risk of the event is due to increase in
greenhouse gases - also likely that
extremely
rare
event
- by 2050, average summer
- by 2100, a cool summer
(Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336,
Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614)
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Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
More rain for some; less rain for others
Jun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
From Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Floods and Droughts
- the most damaging of world disasters
Over the period 1975-2002:
•
Over 200,000 lives lost through flooding from rainfall &
2.2 billion people affected
•
Over 500,000 lives lost due to drought & 1.3 billion affected
Jonkman, S.N. 2005 Natural Hazards 34, 151-175
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Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century
• Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC
• Rise in average sea level for many centuries
• More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts
• Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down
(complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise)
• Poor nations worst affected
• Many millions of environmental refugees
• Loss of millions of species
How sure are we about
Global Warming?
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www.ipcc.ch
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
• Founded in 1988
• Many hundreds of scientists involved from different countries &
ideologies
• Under discipline of science - honesty, accuracy & balance
• In June 2005, Academies of Science of all G8 countries
with India, China & Brazil, issued a joint statement,
“Global response to climate change”
endorsing the international scientific consensus of the
IPCC.
- a remarkably strong endorsement from the world’s top scientific
community
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What can we do about
Global Warming?
International Action
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UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
Rio de Janeiro : June 1992
ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention
.... is to achieve, .… stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere
… the level to be chosen should
enable economic development
to proceed in a sustainable manner.
•
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Stabilization Target of
2ºC
above preindustrial
• First proposed by EU Council in 1996
• Reiterated by Chancellor Merkel at G8 in
2007
• Widely urged by many at Bali Conference
2007
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon
emissions
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon
emissions
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon
emissions
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from IEA WEO 2007
What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon
emissions
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Concentrated
Solar
Power
Thousands of
mirrors focus
sunlight on to
gas or steam
engines to make
electricity
Energy from Biomass & Waste
• From Waste - domestic and agricultural
• From Biocrops to power stations
• From Biocrops to Biofuels
• Local rather than centralized energy so
valuable in rural areas
• Energy from agricultural & forestry
wastes could meet at
least 10 % of the
World’s total energy needs.
from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6
Local energy for rural areas in
the developing world
Local solar energy supply
Solar
cell array
Light
~1 m2
~100 W peak power
T.V.
+
Refrigerator
Car battery
from IEA ETP 2008
The International Challenge
per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004
from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007
Climate Change: the Moral Imperative
• Growth of wealth in rich world
through cheap coal, oil, gas
• No realization of damage caused,
especially to poor countries
• Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist
poor countries develop sustainably
Are we good at Sharing?
• Yes - in our families
• Yes - in our communities
• Yes - in our national social programs
• No - internationally with poorer nations
- net flow of wealth from poor to
rich
We have to learn to SHARE
From everyone who has been given
much,
much will be demanded
Jesus in Luke 12 v 48
How long have we got?
Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to
2050
Investment in Energy to 2050
• Under business-as usual ~ 6 trillion $/year
• With emissions reductions under 2 deg target
~ extra 1 $trillion /year or 1% of world GDP
• Extra investment recovered through savings
on fuel
» from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
The world’s energy system is at a crossroads
Current global energy..trends..are unsustainable
There’s still time to change the road we’re on
What’s needed is nothing short of an
energy revolution
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Executive Summary
Action on Climate Change
“Mostly we know what to do,
but we lack the will to do it”
Sir Crispin Tickell
in the Doomsday Letters
Reasons for optimism
- Commitment of scientific
community
- Necessary technology available
- God’s commitment to his creation
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Intelligence behind universe?
Where do ‘laws’ of nature,
awe & wonder come from?
‘a deeply religious non-believer’
Albert Einstein
God is Creator
Science is God’s science
God is our partner in
caring for Creation
“Noone made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because
he could do so little”
Edmund Burke
Everybody can do something
Caring for the Earth – a Scientific, Moral & Spiritual Challenge