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International Environment Forum Conference Ottawa October 12th, 2007 John M R Stone Carleton University What is the “greenhouse effect”? The Greenhouse Effect Into Uncharted Territory: The Earth out of Balance CO2 CH4 The atmospheric concentration of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years Climate Change Is Already Occurring Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Global Mean Temperatures Continue to Increase IPCC 4th Assessment Report Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. IPCC AR4 WGI SPM Arctic Climate Change is Real – Just Ask the Inuit Reduced Arctic Sea-Ice: A Cause for Conflict Little Open Sea 2000 Open All Around 2030 No Ice at All 2095 Is the Climate System Accelerating Model experiments show that even if all radiative forcing agents were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade, due mainly to the slow response of the oceans. IPCC 4th Assessment Report The Arctic: It Will Warm Even Faster Autumn 2006 www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/socc/seaice/seaice_future.html The Northwest Passage The End ??? This is it Jenkins, indisputable proof that the Ice Age caught these people completely off guard Humans…