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NOAA Climate Program The NOAA Climate Program: Research and Climate Services Chet Koblinsky Director of the NOAA Climate Program, and Acting Director of the Office of Global Programs Climate Prediction Assessments and Services Workshop, March 9-11, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 5/24/2017 1 NOAA Climate Program • Ten years ago NOAA’s climate services were primarily focused on the dissemination of coarsely resolved national seasonal forecasts. • Over the last ten years NOAA has, in close collaboration with decision-makers, conducted research that has enhanced the relevance, value, and accuracy of its data and forecasting tools. • Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change? Need to develop a vision and roadmap for the future. 5/24/2017 2 NOAA Climate Program • The current program stems from NOAA’s commitment to develop a cohesive system that links research, operational climate services, and decision-makers needs. 5/24/2017 3 NOAA Climate Program Vision NOAA’ s MISSION To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs. BENEFITS TO THE NATION Consistent with its results-oriented approach to strategic planning, NOAA is committed to maximizing the benefits of its products and services to our Nation’s: •Environment •Public Safety •Economy 5/24/2017 4 NOAA Climate Program Mission Goal 2 - Climate Climate is one of the four strategic themes within NOAA. “Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond” Climate Services (NAS): The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers. Anticipated Outcomes (Build an end-to-end system) – Increased use and effectiveness of observations and climate information – show the benefit of the observations, provide feedback on what works, what doesn’t work, and what needs to be changed and how. 5/24/2017 5 NOAA Climate Program Research to Delivery Information Gathering and Dissemination Operations/ Decision-makers Research NOAA Climate Transition Program 5/24/2017 6 NOAA Climate Program Organizational Ideas Interagency Climate Office OAR OGP, COSP Sea Grant CDC, GFDL NMFS NOAA Climate Program Office NOS CSC, OCRM, CWISE Matrix Link External Advisory Groups NESDIS Climate Board Matrix Link NWS NGDC NCDC NODC NCEP OCWWS RCCs CWISE EMC CPC CSD Regions WFOs/ RFCs Regional Manager RISAs, IRI, Extension 5/24/2017 7 NOAA Climate Program Elements 1. Climate Observations and Analysis (T. Karl - NESDIS) 50% Observations Data Stewardship Understanding Climate Variability and Change 2. Climate Forcing (D. Albritton - OAR) 20% Global Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition 3. Climate Predictions and Projections (A. Leetmaa - OAR) 25% Climate Prediction Climate Change Projections Reducing Model Uncertainty 4. Climate and Ecosystems (N. Cyr - NMFS) 1% 5: Regional Decision Support (R. Livezey NWS, C. Nierenberg - OAR) 4% 5/24/2017 8 NOAA Climate Program Goal 5 Regional Decision Support: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services. Outcome – Enhance NOAA’s operational decision support tools to provide climate services for national socioeconomic benefits Performance Measure – Provide NWS forecasters scientific training to understand and use NOAA climate forecasts and other climate products, and adapt these products for regional delivery. 5/24/2017 9 NOAA Climate Program Milestones for Goal 5 Exploratory workshops to identify climate sensitive issues at regional scales. Regional forums to identify research priorities and transfer to operations Develop prototype methods for application of climate information to practical management Transition research products to operations Social science-based studies for context and use of climate information 5/24/2017 10 NOAA Climate Program Examples • Operational wildfire forecasting a federal and state partnership with NOAA. • Climate implications for estuarine rehabilitation, the CALFED example. • NWS partnerships with FEMA to improve disaster management in Montana. • Climate based risk management NOAA-USDA researchextension partnership. 5/24/2017 11 NOAA Climate Program • Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change? 5/24/2017 12 BACKUP 5/24/2017 13 • Ecosystem sciences • Ecosystems restoration • Endangered species • Extreme events • Recreation • Estuarine restoration • Mississippi Great Lakes shipping (variable water volume) • Extreme events & infrastructure • Extreme events & public safety (insurance) • Flood Control • Water quality • Consumption PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND DECISION SUPPORT Problem Identification And Formulation Policy Contexts and Decision-making Processes Characterizing & Communicating Outcomes Increase Response Options Development of Decision Resources (across scales & communities) Scientific Resources And Knowledge Expanded Regional Adaptive Capacity • Risk management • Yield, supply, price expectation • Trade implications Identification of key Knowledge gaps • Fisheries populations • Production • Energy demand Conditions for wind & solar • Health • EPA air quality regulation 5/24/2017 • Wildfire management • Reforestation options • Controlled burning • Vector borne diseases • Asthma 14