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Megacities: Emissions, Impact on Air Quality and Climate, and Improved Tools for Mitigation Assessments (MEGACITIES; MEGAPOLIS ) Brussels, 21.02.2007 Core group meeting of the Megacity proposal Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Megacities core group meeting agenda: The meeting took place in the COST Office at 149 Avenue Louise, B-1050 Brussels, on the 21st floor. Febr 21, Wednesday: 10:00 - 11:00 introduction/ presentations by 3 co-coordinators: Alexander Baklanov, Spyros Pandis, Mark Lawrence (project structure, science questions, WP budget and consortium) 11:00 - 14:30 WP discussions/presentations by WP leaders (proposal structure: tasks and participants in WPs, budget, etc) with a lunch break (~12:30) 14:30 - 17:00 discussion of one megacity in focus for project measurements and 5-7 megacities - for modelling studies; implementation aspects. 14:00 - 17:00 open discussion, any other questions (e.g. RS studies) Febr 22, Thursday (Mark and Spyros leave earlier): 10:00 - 12:00 discussions with WP leaders and partners (WP tasks and partners contributions) 12:00 - meeting stop Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Participants list: 1. Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute 2. Spyros Pandis, University of Patras, Greece 3. Mark G. Lawrence, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Germany 4. Peter Builtjes, TNO-Institute of Environmental Sciences, Netherlands 5. Rainer Friedrich, University of Stuttgart, Germany 6. Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Aristotle University Thessaloníki, Greece 7. Matthias Beekmann, CNRS, France 8. Photios Barmpas, Aristotle University Thessaloníki, Greece 9. Heinke Schluenzen, Hamburg University, Germany (2nd day) 10. Ari Karppinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute (delayed) Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels The 'Megacities' official EC 7FP call: ENV.2007.1.1.2.1. Megacities and regional hot-spots air quality and climate Impacts of air pollution from megacities and large air-pollution’hot-spots’ in Europe and elsewhere. Integrated research on emissions, their local impacts with special emphasis on air quality and associated risks, and their regional to global impacts. Assessment of mitigation options and quantification of impacts from polluted airmasses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics (physics and chemistry, hydrological processes, long-range/hemispheric transport etc.) as well as other important feedbacks between air quality, climate and climate change. The participation of international cooperation partner countries is encouraged. Funding scheme: collaborative projects (small or medium-scale focused research projects) Expected impact: A better quantification of air quality, mitigation options and availability of more reliable tools for prediction of air pollution in cities. Support to EC Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and Air Quality regulation. Better quantification on regional and global links between air pollution, climate and climate change necessary to underpin mitigation and other policy initiatives. Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Project aim The main aim of the project is (i) to assess impacts of growing megacities and large air-pollution “hot-spots” on air pollution and feedbacks between air quality, climate and climate change on different scales, and (ii) to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in cities. The work in this project will include both basic and applied research, and will especially focus on bridging the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather conditions with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. Expected impacts: better tools for cities and better links between scales Pollutants: specific urban aerosols, PM, NOx, O3, others. Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Main Objectives • • • • • • • • • To develop and evaluate integrated methodologies to improve emission data from megacities on local through global scales To analyse urban pollution, other impact factors and physical processes from the street level to megacities 'urban plume' (focus on megacities scale to resolve the local-scale processes) To assess regional to global impacts from mega city plumes, including: atmospheric transport (local pollution buildup and regional to global) and chemical transformation of 'megacity plumes' (gas and aerosol) To determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity aerosols, other precursors and impact factors To quantify impacts from polluted air-masses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics (physics and chemistry, hydrological processes, long-range/hemispheric transport etc.) and to assess mitigation options To assess global megacity aerosol/pollutant forcing and their effects on global climate To examine feedback mechanisms: effects of climate change on megacity environment and emissions To develop improved 'integrated' tools (a hierarchy of up- and down-scaled models <based on existing models> ) for prediction of air pollution in cities and to validate and demonstrate them on case studies for selected megacities To propose assessment and mitigation options for scenarios of megacity developments: Support for EC - TSAP, Regulation, Policy Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Scientific questions to be addressed: • How megacities affects the air quality on regional and global scales? • How large is the impact of megacities on regional and global climate? • How will the growth of megacities affect climate change at global and European scale? • What is the impact of large scale dynamic processes on the air pollution from megacities? • What are the key feedback interactions between the air quality-climate-climate change relevant to megacities? • Which measurement gaps exit? • What improvements are needed in regional-global models? Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels • Megacities: Urban features in focus: • • • • • • • • WMO, GURME • • Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute Urban pollutants emission, transformation and transport, Land-use drastic change due to urbanisation, Anthropogenic heat fluxes, urban heat island, Local-scale inhomogeneties, sharp changes of roughness and heat fluxes, Wind velocity reduce effect due to buildings, Redistribution of eddies due to buildings, large => small, Trapping of radiation in street canyons, Effect of urban soil structure, diffusivities heat and water vapour, Internal urban boundary layers (IBL), urban Mixing Height, Effects of pollutants (aerosols) on urban meteorology and climate, Urban effects on clouds, precipitation and thunderstorms. ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Main effecting links, interconnections and processes in focus •Mitigations •Feedbacks •Emissions •Megacities •Forcing •Climate •Air Quality •UBL •Aerosols •Urban Features Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Identification of Problems to be Solved To better quantify the regional and global links between air pollution, climate and climate change and to meet necessary underpin mitigation and other policy initiatives. The megacities (worldwide) have an impact on the air quality not only locally but also regionally and globally, and can therefore also influence the climate. In Figure above a schematic description of how the megacities, air quality and climate interact is presented. Some separate links, shown in Figure, are already considered and reasonably understood. However, a full set of these interacting links with their feedbacks is crucial to consider in order to fulfil the main goal of the call ENV.2007.1.1.2.1; and these are still poorly understood. Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels WP 8 – Coordination, Management and Dissemination WP 1 - Emissions WP 2 – Local Air Quality and Associated Risks WP 4 – Regional Climate Effects (Self-Impacts of Individual Megacities) Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute WP 3 – Regional and Global Air Quality WP 5– Global Climate Effects (Collective and Cross-Impacts of Megacities) WP 6 – Improved Integrated Tools For Air Pollution Prediction, plus Case Studies for Selected Megacities WP 7 – Mitigation Options Assessment, Policy Support ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Denmark DMI Germany Mark G. Lawrence, Jos Lelieveld, Tim Butler, Uli Poeschl MPIC German Weather Service (to Germany be merged with 4) Barbara Fay DWD Hamburg University (to be merged with 3) Germany Heinke Schluenzen, Michael Schatzmann MIHU Germany Rainer Friedrich, Jochen Theloke, Thomas Pregger USt UK Ranjeet Sokhi , Ye Yu, Charles Chemel UHCL Sue Grimmond, Frank Kelly, Glenn McGregor KCL UK Bill Collins, Boucher, Olivier, Adrian Broad UKMO Regional, Global climate + weather forecast Finland Jaakko Kukkonen, Gerrit de Leeuw FMI Street, local, regional modeling + measurements Finland Markku Kulmala, Sergej Zilitinkevich UH Modeling, satellites, measurements 2 Max Planck Institute for Chemistry 3 4 5 University of Stuttgart 6 University of Hertfordshire College Lane 7 King's College London (to be UK subcontractor to 6) 8 UK MetOffice 9 Integrated models, Air quality + meteorology, Climate, from local to regional (and global) Alexander Baklanov, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselberg Christensen Danish Meteorological 1 Institute / Danish Climate Center Finnish Meteorological Institute 10 University of Helsinki 11 TNO-Institute of Environmental Sciences Nederlands Peter Builtjes, Hugo Denier van der Gon TNO 12 Aristotle University Thessaloniki Greece Nicolas Moussiopoulos, John Doros AUT Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute Climate models Regional air quality modelling Regional air quality Emission models Street, Local and regional air quality Met. Modelling Emissions, regional air quality Street, local, regional air quality ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Nansen Environmental and Remote 13 Sensing Center, Bergen (to be subcontractor to 15 or 14) Norway Igor Esau, Ola Johannessen NERSC 14 Norwegian Institute for Air Research Norway Steinar Larssen, Bruce Denby NILU 15 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norway Viel Ødegaard, Leonor Tarrason, Øystein Hov met.no 16 ARIANET Consulting (to be subcontractor to 23) Italy Sandro Finardi ARIANET Italy Filippo Giorgi, Ashraf Zakey ICTP Schweiz Alain Clappier (+Alberto Martilli) EPFL France CHIMERE team: Laurent Menut, Matthias Beekmann?, Paolo Laj CNRS Austria Markus Amann IIASA Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste 17 (to keep as partner because they are resp. for regional climate modeling) 18 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (to be merged with 24) CNRS /LISA, Ecole Polytechnique, 19 etc ?/ (several groups to be included as one partner CNRS) 20 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Foundation for Research and 21 Technology, Hellas, University of Patras Greece Spyros Pandis FORTH 22 Institute of Tropospheric Research, Leiptzig Germany Alfred Wiedensohler IFT 23 CNR-ISAC, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Italy Sando Fuzzi, M.Ch. Facchini CNRISAC 24 PSI, Paul Scherrer Institute Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute Switzerland Urs Baltensberger PSi LES, remote sensing, China branch Data banks, EMEP Policy, EMEP Po Valley, case study, local and street Regional climate modelling, Cairo case study Urban scale Met. Modelling Regional models, EUSAAR connections Policy models Regional models, organic aerosols, case studies (measurements) Case studies (China), measurements + models Aerosol chemistry, Po Valley Urban measurements, Street scale ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels WPs basic structure • (see also the EC documents and tool from cordis web-site) • 1. Aim and objectives (no more than 3-4-5) 2. Teams involved + estimated person months 3. Basic work plan split into 3-4-5 main tasks and teams responsible 4. Main deliverables 5. Time schedule 6. Estimate of resources - months, equipment/computing, consumables, etc... • We need to discuss WPs and think about wider questions eg: • - How this WP interacts with local and global/climate WP? - How the measurements will feed into the modelling work? - How the WP will assist in the mitigation/policy work? Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels WP leaders • • • • • • • • • WP 1 (Builtjes and Friedrich), New WP2 (Grimmond?, Esau)? WP 2 (Baltensperger and _Moussiopoulos_), WP 3 (Kukkonen and Sokhi), WP 4 (Giorgi and _Pandis_), WP 5 (_Collins_ and _Lawrence_), WP 6 (?,_Baklanov_?), WP7 (Beekmann?, Paolo Laj?), WP 8 (?????). Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Megacities in focus Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels NOx emissions in megacities 250000 NOx Emissions (Tonne/yr) 200000 150000 100000 50000 (d ) Ja ka rta (e ) g Ko n H on g Sa nt ia go (b ) (a ) M on te rre y (a ) ) ua da la ja ra G ic o C ity (c (a ) M ex Lo nd on St oc kh ol m (a ) (a ) M ad rid er da m (a ) (a ) Am st R om e At he ns (a ) (a ) Be rli n Pa ris (a ) 0 Note: (a) is 1995, (b) is 1997, (c) is 1998, (d) is 1999 and (e) is 2000 Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Population trends in megacities (UN2001) Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Megacities in focus • In Europe there are formally 4(5) such defined (>5mln) cities (London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr / Rhine-Ruhr North, Moscow, and Istanbul) • Extra possible mega-urban areas in Europe: - The Netherlands urban agglomeration (Peter) - Milano and the Po valley in Italy (Sandro) • Megacities outside Europe: - Delhi/Bangalore, Beijing/Shanghai, Kairo, Teheran, Singapore - Latin-American cities: Buenos Aires, Mexico, Rio de Janeiro, Santiago de Chile, São Paulo; - US, Japan ???? • The global scale: effect of all megacities Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels US potential partners 2. Prof. Mario Molina Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Responsibilities / interests: Air pollution in/from megacities (e.g. Mexico City) <we didn’t contact yet> 3. Drs. Georg Grell and Sasha Madronich, NCAR Responsibilities / interests: On-line integrated WRF-Chem system with aerosol feedbacks; MILAGRO (Mexico City campaign from earlier this year) <Alexander, Ranjeet and Mark have contacted> 4. Professor Robert D. Bornstein Department of Meteorology One Washington Square San Jose State University San Jose, CA 95192 USA 408.924.5205 work, 5191 fax 415.567.1063 home 415.308.1587 cell phone [email protected] work/home Responsibilities / interests: Urban coastal climate Urban impact on regional climate Concurring: global warming and local cooling in coastal environment Air pollution in coastal urban environment Heat islands <Sergej and Alexander have contacted> Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute 5. Professor H.J.S. Fernando Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Environmental Fluid Dynamics Program Arizona State University Tempe, AZ 85287-9809 USA Phone: 480-965-2807, Fax: 480-965-8746, [email protected] Participate: Vice rector of the University Prof. Jonathan Fink (urban research beyond environmental aspects); Professor J.C.R. Hunt (employed at AZU beginning from January 2007) Responsibilities / interests: Urban climate in a valley (ventilation due to slope winds), socio economical aspects, problems of rapidly growing bid city <Sergej has contacted> 6. Dr. Gabriel Katul Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences Duke Univesrity Box 90328 Durham, NC 27708-0328 USA Tel. +1-919-613-8033, fax +1-919-684-8741 [email protected] Responsibilities / interests: A theoretical model and observations of turbulence in urban canopy <Sergej has contacted> 7. Prof. Greg Carmichael University of Iowa <[email protected]> Responsibilities / interests: Cooperation with GURME project of WMO ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels Budget drafting: Contribution from EC: 3.5 mln Euro Total cost (~60-75% from EC): 5-6.5 mln Euro Management/coordination, end-users and external experts, audit - ~0.5-1 mln Euro (100% from EC) Avarage budget per partner: 5 mln / 20 partners = 250 000 Euro (~150 000 Euro from EC, 50-75%) Project duration: 3 years Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels BUDGET DRAFT BY WPs PM (approx) Personn el Expend ables 108 450 10 460 WP 2 – Local Air Quality and Associated Risks 72 300 10 310 WP 3 – Regional and Global Air Quality 72 300 10 310 WP 4 – Regional Climate Effects: Self-Impacts of Individual Megacities 72 300 10 310 WP 5– Global Climate Effects: Collective and Cross-Impacts of Megacities 72 300 10 310 WP 6 – Case Studies and Observations for a Selected Megacity (or Megacities) 72 300 400 700 WP 7 – Improved Integrated Tools For Air Pollution Prediction 72 300 10 310 WP 8 – Mitigation Options Assessment and Policy Support 72 300 10 310 WP 9 – Coordination, Management and Dissemination 72 300 100 400 684 2850 570 3420 All monetary values in k-Euros WP 1 - Emissions Total Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute Total ‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels