Download Climate change in the North Sea – Baltic Sea area

Climate change in the North Sea – Baltic Sea area
Project description – Kristine S. Madsen
Last updated June 2, 2007
The Climate around Denmark is known to have changed during the last century, and is expected to evolve more dramatically the next hundred years. Since Denmark is a small country surrounded by sea, the climate effect on and by the sea is important to most parts of the Danish society.
Further, the Inner Danish Waters make up the transition zone between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The North Sea is the only source of salinity and the main source of oxygen to the Baltic Sea. Also, the Skagerrak and the Norwegian coastal current in the North Sea are greatly influenced by the low­
saline outflow from the Baltic Sea. Any changes in these forcings will be reflected in the conditions in the Inner Danish Waters. The response is two­way – changes in the Inner Danish Waters will also affect the North Sea and Baltic Sea.
This project will examine the climate of the last hundred years in the seas around Denmark by analysis of a large set of observations, including century­long data records from lightships and tide gauges, giving information on temperature, salinity, surface currents and sea level.
For prediction of future climate changes, the two­way nested ocean model currently used for operational forecasting of the North Sea – Baltic Sea area at the Danish Meteorological Institute will be set up and run as a climate model, with forcings from the EU regional climate project Prudence. This modeling approach allows for high spatial resolution and avoids model boundaries in the Inner Danish Waters, as opposed to current ocean climate models used in the area. This allows for studies of the interaction between the North Sea and Baltic Sea, and of the local climate effects in the Danish area.
The main focus areas are
● Validation – can this setup model past events?
● Storm surges and climate change. Will the storm surge pattern change?
● Water exchange to the Baltic Sea
● Climate change in the Inner Danish Waters; changes in currents, water level, temperature and salinity.
The project was initiated in May 2006 and is planned to last for 3 years. My supervisors are Niels K. Højerslev, University of Copenhagen, and Jun She, the Danish Meteorological Institute, and the project is funded by the University of Copenhagen and the Danish Meteorological Institute.