Download Prognoses and simulations of aquatic ecosystems

Prognoses and simulations of aquatic ecosystems
in a climate change perspective
CONWOY (Consequences of weather and climate changes for marine and freshwater
ecosystems - Conceptual and operational forecasting of the aquatic environment)
is a Centre of Excellence, which has been granted 23.6 mill DKK by
Forskningsforum, which is part of the Danish Research Agency for the period 1 June
2002 to 31 May 2006. The centre includes 9 partners.
The overall aim of DHI activities is to:

Produce hindcast and nowcast simulations to describe past and present conditions
in different aquatic ecosystems with regard to climate effects

Produce forecast simulations and prognoses for the effect of climate change on
different aquatic ecosystems

Assess climate change impacts on a longer time scale in order to identify possible
future management strategies and needs
Climate change modelling is traditionally based on atmospheric models with regard to
the changes and impacts of the rising CO2 level. The establishment of the 3dimensional hydrodynamic model Farvandsmodellen (http://www.vandudsigten.dk)
by DHI, describing currents and fluxes in Danish waters, is regarded as a unique
opportunity to assess the future impact of climate change on coastal water ecology.
The model has a great potential for climate scenario modelling, because it is able to
calculate the sensitivity of the present system to changes in various input parameters.
In this way the model may be used as a tool for testing the sensitivity of Danish
marine water ecology to the impact of future climate changes.
A wide variety of subjects will be addressed in this study. In the following is a list of
topics that are relevant in this context:
Overall impacts may be:
Changes in precipitation, Changes in primary production, Changes in nutrient supply,
Changes in suspended sediment supply, Coastline replacement, Changes in
morphology in basin/delta/coast
Specific changes include:
Salinity intrusions to the Baltic, Location of haloclines, Location of thermoclines,
Extreme events, Sea level rise, Fluxes through the Danish straits