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Building Blocks (and the Devil) in
Commercial Assessment and Planning
Richard W. Martin, President and Chief Operating Officer
The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
April 2008
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution
outside the client organization without prior written approval from The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
 Multiple slides
Confidential
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The Devils of Commercial Assessment and
Planning
Epidemiology
Patient Behavior
Treatment Protocols
Commercial Environment
Competitive Set
Regulatory Environment
Commercialization Strategy
Partner Coordination
Logistics and Supply
Financial Considerations
Confidential
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Epidemiology is the starting point in the pharmaceutical
commercial market assessment and planning process.
 How many patients have the disease or condition and are eligible to be
treated?
• Drug discovery prioritization
• Clinical trial planning
• Licensing
• Additional indications for in-line products
• Resource allocation and investment decisions
• Go / no-go decisions all along the way
 Too often, too little attention is paid to this critical element of business
planning.
• Epidemiology is the first potential major “trip up” in the commercial
assessment and planning process
• The impact of errors here are multiplied throughout the planning process
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4
Epidemiology non-oncology examples
 Multiple slides
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5
Changes in core disease rates can trip up the best
planners.
 The previous examples show the effect of demographics when the rate of
disease is static. What happens when the disease rate also changes?
 One must analyze the “age-adjusted” disease rate.
• An overall disease rate is dependent on demographic composition at the time
the rate was determined.
• An age-adjusted rate corrects for changes in demographic composition.
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Epidemiology oncology examples
 Multiple slides
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Co-Morbid Considerations
 Why is it important to consider co-morbid diseases / conditions?
• To prevent “double counting” resulting in over- or under-estimating market size
• For example, many individual compounds are used to treat multiple psychiatric conditions
 Where should one be most careful regarding co-morbid diseases /
conditions? (And, let’s not forget about severity)
• Respiratory disease (asthma, COPD, allergic rhinitis)
• Multiple indications for a single product (e.g., Sanofi-Aventis’ rimonabant
originally considered for smoking, obesity, hypertension and diabetes together)
• Psychiatric illnesses (depression, anxiety, others)
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Co-morbidity examples
 Multiple slides
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And so it goes
Patient Behavior
Confidential
10
Treatment Protocol
Confidential
11
Commercial Environment
Confidential
12
Competitive Environment
Confidential
13
Regulatory Environment
Confidential
14
Commercialization Strategies
Confidential
15
Partner Coordination
Confidential
16
Logistics and Supply
Confidential
17
Financial Considerations
Confidential
18
Thank You!
Richard W. Martin
President and COO
The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
11960 Westline Drive, Suite 180
St. Louis, MO 63146
Tel: 314.469-7600
Fax: 314.469.6794
E-mail: [email protected]
www.mattsonjack.com
Confidential
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