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COMPILING QGDP OF THE SERVICES SECTOR ACTIVITIES DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Ramesh Kolli Additional Director General Central Statistical Organisation, India 1 DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN BEFORE STARTING QNA • GVA by industry and/or GDP expenditures • Compilation level • Sources of data • Method of compilation • Current or constant prices first • Release timeliness 2 GVA by industry and/or GDP expenditures • In developing countries, it is easier to produce production GDP • Can also produce GDP expenditures, using same sources of data (GFCF-construction and output of services), and external sector transactions 3 Compilation level • Assess the available data sources at as disaggregated industry level as possible – QNA estimates to be compiled at that level – With computerization, the process should not be time-consuming • However, will be less detailed than annual estimates 4 Sources of data • Same sources as those used in ANA • Quarterly surveys/Admn. records • Proxy indicators 5 Sources • • • • • • • • Quarterly economy-wide enterprise surveys Quarterly retail trade surveys Quarterly labour force surveys Tax data – disaggregated by industries Quarterly financial results of companies Government expenditures Administrative data Foreign trade 6 Proxy indicators • Can be several – which are closer to the reality? – Index of industrial production – Building materials for construction – Service production/turnover index – Labour input – Sometimes even population data – Quantity indicators – Labor input – Other input indicators (government) 7 Method of compilation • Current or constant prices first? – Depending on source data being from • enterprise surveys and financial results of corporations or tax data or generally in nominal prices – Current prices first and using a corresponding price index to get constant prices • Quantum or volume indicators – labour input, IIP, production of building materials, agriculture production – Constant prices first and use price indices as inflators to get current price estimates • Is there any systematic bias? – generally upward 8 Release timeliness • Definitely before the end of next quarter • Preferably 45 days 9 Most common indicators for service industries • Wholesale and retail trade and hotels & restaurants – – – – Quarterly enterprise survey/retail trade survey-turnover Quarterly financial results of corporations Tax data – taxes collected from this industry number of guest nights for establishments providing accommodation • India – extrapolating with – Gross trading index for informal sector – Deflated Quarterly financial results of corporations for others – Sales of motor vehicles 10 Railways • Passenger kilometers • Freight tonne kilometers • Revenue earnings 11 Other transport and storage • Quarterly surveys/financial results • Volume of transported goods India • Road – Number of commercial vehicles on road and passenger kms • Air – Domestic and international passenger and freight kms • Water – Cargo handled in major ports • Services – Combined growth rates of above three • Storage – One fourth of annual forecast 12 Communication • Administrative data on number of telephone calls, postal articles – number of minutes of telephone service, number of letters handled, number of telegram words, etc • Quarterly financial results/enterprise surveys • India – Stock of telephone connections and postal revenue 13 Banking and insurance • Volume of loans and deposits • Financial results • Insurance premiums collected • India – Aggregated deposits and credits – Net insurance premium collected for both life and non-life 14 Ownership of dwellings • Stock of dwellings • India – Extrapolated stock of dwellings 15 Real estate and business services • Quarterly enterprise surveys/financial results • Labour input • India – Software companies – financial results – Exports of software – Quarterly financial results of companies 16 Public administration and defence • Government expenditures • Labour input • India – Government revenue expenditures, excluding interest payments 17 Other services • Expenditures on education and health • Labour input • Population growth • India – Extrapolated expenditures on education and health – Population growth (some of the personal services) – 1/4th of Annual extrapolations 18 References • System of National Accounts 1993 (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp) • IMF (2001): Quarterly National Accounts Manual—Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/2000/Textbook/) • OECD (2001): Quarterly National Accounts: Sources And Methods Used By OECD Member Countries (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/36/1909562.pdf) • Francois Lequiller and Derek Blades, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (2006): Understanding National Accounts • Central Statistical Organisation (2007): National Accounts Statistics: Sources and Methods (http://mospi.gov.in/mospi_cso_rept_pubn.htm) 19 Thanks 20