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Global Tourism Trends and Prospects for 2002 Presentation by Andrei Chlevkov, Assistant to WTO Regional Representative for Europe Prague, Czech Republic, 6th February 2002 MICE Benefits and Costs + + + + + High level of spending by delegates Increased employment Tax revenues Redevelopment of depressed areas Improving the image - High development and operating costs Infrastructure cost Investment alternatives Possible local price increases Worldwide Export Earnings, 1999 Tourism Automotive products Chemicals Food Fuels Computer and office equipment Textiles and clothing Telecommunications equipment Mining products other than fuels Iron and steel 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 US$ billion 400 450 500 550 600 World results, 2001 International Tourist Arrivals (millions) Growth rate 00/99: 7% Growth rate 01/00: 650,2 697 689 - 1.3 % 1999 2000 2001 International Tourist Receipts (USD billions) Growth rate 00/99: 4.9% 455,1 477,3 1999 2000 Purpose of visit International tourist arrivals 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 World Africa Leisure, Recreation, Holidays Americas EAP Europe VFR, Health, Religion, Other Middle East South Asia Business, Professional Year 2001 was affected by: - foot and mouth disease - economic slow-down - stocks sliding - decrease in consumer confidence - slight increase in unemployment -pro- and anti- globalization movements - the antrax scare 11th SEPTEMBER TERRORIST ATTACKS The 11th September Impact on Global Tourism: Worst Hit Segments: • Long-haul tourism • Air carriers • Hotels • Business Travel • Destinations heavily dependent on US traffic Effects on Global Tourism, triggered by 11th September Airlines: • Massive cancellations • Global losses for the year 2001: USD10-12 billion (IATA) • Bankruptcies • Reduction of capacity and staff • Curtailment of routes • Profit warnings and a slump in share prices • Accelerated retirement or sale of aircraft and cancellation or delay of aircraft orders • Major insurance problems Accommodation: • Massive cancellations and job losses • Worst hit: up-market hotels, particularly, hotels catering for individual businessmen, conventions and incentives and which have a high proportion of North American clients • Income per room dropped 19.4 per cent in the US and 8.2 per cent elsewhere in the world • At the end of 2001 occupancy rates were still 13 per cent down on 2000 Sectors and Segments Least Affected by the Crisis •Redistribution of tourist flows in favour of: - destinations perceived as safe - domestic tourism - destinations reached by alternative transport (car) • Special interest tourism (sports, culture, ecotourism) Remedial Actions proposed by the WTO Tourism Recovery Committee • Preserve the industry’s operational capacity • Institutional measures: government coordination • Rebuild consumer confidence • Enhance safety and security • Improve communication • Better targeted products • Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action) • Public-private partnerships • Understanding the economic impact of tourism (by markets, segments, sectors, etc.) The Crisis as a Catalyst: • Encouraging the development of new products • Targeting new market segments • Improving product quality and competitiveness • Eliminating rigidities and inefficiencies • Speeding up changes (direct bookings, Internet, closure of travel agencies, consolidation in the air transport sector) • Underlining the role of tourism as a wealth generator, job creator and promoter of peace and understanding International Tourism Key Words Growth Globalization Vulnerability Resilience Growth / Performance Growth of World Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Real GDP Average 1975-2000 % change over previous year 10,0 Tourist Arrivals Average 1975-2000 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 -2,0 1975 Second oil crisis / crisis (Afghanistan, Poland,...) 1980 1985 Gulf War / Yugoslavia 1990 1995 Asian crisis / Problems in the Eastern Mediterranean 2000 Vulnerability / resilience Egypt: Luxor terrorist attacks (November 1997) Asia: financial crisis (1997-1998) 120 International Tourist Arrivals (millions) International Tourist Arrivals (millions) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Growth Tourist arrivals by receiving regions, 1950-2020 1 800 Actual Forecasts 1 600 1.561 mn 1 400 millions 1 200 1 000 800 South Asia Middle East Africa East Asia/Pacific Americas Europe 1.006 mn 699 mn 600 400 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Internet Use for MICE Organizers Features of a MICE site: • General editorial material to help raise awareness of the destination • Detailed practical information • Information about travel options • Details of the services provided • Full details of MICE products • Access to the full leisure product database • Online reservations • Special promotions for MICE organizers to offer their clients • Details of DMO personnel • Optional registration to receive future information and offers Prospects for Central European Destinations (1) Joining the European Union Huge benefits: - joining most economically and socially developed nations - free movement of capitals, goods, services and people - joining the euro zone Factors to take into account: - increased competition - the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.) Prospects for Central European Destinations (2) • Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-made tourism resources) • Living folk traditions and hospitality • Relatively developed tourism infrastructure • Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer • Proximity to major European markets • Positive image • Institutional support and public awareness www.world-tourism.org [email protected]