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Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education • Trends analysis – Demography – Technology – Globalisation – Academic research – Labour market • Futures scenarios Outline • Why does demography matter? • What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes? • What are the qualitative challenges? • What will it take to address them? Why does demography matter? Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006) Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points) GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States Source: US Censur Bureau Social inequity over time (father’s education) Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia) Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100) Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ? Addressing the quality access challenges On your memory stick Higher Education 2030 – Volume 1: Demography Forthcoming: – Volume 2: Technology – Volume 3: Globalisation – Volume 4: Scenarios [email protected] THANK YOU www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures