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Predicting our Climate Future Human Activities and Lifestyles GHG Emissions Climate Change Model Social Science Oriented • Social influences • Human behavior • Affluence • Diet/food, • geography influences • Political aspects • Isolation/globalization • Economic drivers • Environmental regulations • Technology and its implementation • Energy efficiency • Alternative energy sources Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp. etc.) Earth Science Oriented • Physics • Chemistry • Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes Emission scenarios • Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to project what our lives and activities will be for the next century. – What are the possible economic scenarios? – What changes will we have in our society? • How do these changes influence emissions? IPCC SRES • Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Developed “stories” that would define the range of possible social systems that we may develop through the 21st century – Economic growth – Population growth – Technology development and adoption – Commitment to the environment – Globalization A: Economic Focus A1: Global, Economically Oriented A2: Regional, Economically oriented Population growth and decline Population growth Technological advances applied Technological advances, globally resource consumption and Equity in economic development cultural differences among among regions regions Extensive fossil fuel use in A1FI scenario Rapid technology development to reduce fossil fuels (A1T) by 2100: o 15 billion population by 2100: o $250 trillion GDP o 7 billion population o ~850 ppm CO2 o $550 trillion GDP o ~970 ppm CO2 (A1FI), (720 ppm for A1B) B: Environmental Focus B1: Global, Environmentally oriented B2: Regional, Environmentally oriented by 2100: o 7 billion population o $350 trillion GDP o estimated 550 ppm CO2 by 2100: o 10 billion population, o $250 trillion GDP o ~600 PPM CO2 global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability no additional climate initiatives service and information oriented economy reductions in material intensity clean and resource-efficient technologies local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability economic equity within regions, but not between regions less rapid and more diverse technological changes global policies for climate change mitigation Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Model predictions IPCC scenarios 350.org IPCC scenarios IPCC Data • Visualization of IPCC climate model results – http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/