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Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points Alexey Gromov PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy «EU-Russia cooperation: Energy and Climate Changes» October, 23, 2009 Moscow Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years 2009-2030 Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 ES-2030 General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030 Eastern Gas Program General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year 2030 Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation Investment programs of Program of longterm development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East State program of energy saving Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far East energy companies 2 Aim and Goals of the ES-2030 Aim Innovative and efficient energy development Stable institutional environment in the energy sector Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure Goals Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy and energy sector Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing of energy resources Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the global energy system Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic crisis 3 Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy Complex’s Role in the Russian economy 2030 2005 30% 19% Energy sector in GDP Energy sector’s export in GDP Energy resources in export 64% 27% Investment in energy sector in total investment 18% 5% 34% 11% 4 Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources 5 Key priorities in the Russian energy sector Energy Security Energy Efficiency Economic Efficiency Ecological Security 6 Energy security Strategic indicators First stage Second stage Third stage Growth of energy consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005 no less than 10% no less than 20% no less than 40% Growth of electricity consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005 no less than 13% no less than 43% no less than 85% Growth of petrol consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005 no less than 23% no less than 41% no less than 70% Decrease of the current level of equipment’s run-out (in 2005 – 60%): by 10% by 10% by 5% Elimination of deficit and maintenance of the sufficient reserve of the power and heat generating capacities Maintenance of power generating reserves at the level of 17% of the total installed capacity of the United Energy Systems (UES) of Russia. Maintenance of normative heat generating reserves of heat stations and boiler-houses. 7 Energy efficiency of the economy Strategic indicators First stage Second stage Third stage Specific energy intensity of GDP, % of the 2005 level no more than 80% no more than 62% no more than 46% Formation of additional energy potential for economic development: 100 mln. t c.e./y 200 mln. t c.e./y 300 mln. t c.e./y Development of high-technological energy services with volume of: 200 bln. RUR/y 300 bln. RUR/y 400 bln. RUR/y Mean decrease in specific losses and auxiliaries in FEC’s enterprises, % by the level of previous year no less than 1% no less than 1% no less than 0,5% Decrease in specific fuel rate for heat generation of heat stations and boiler houses, % by the level of 2005 no less than 2% no less than 6% no less than 10% 8 Economic efficiency of the energy sector Strategic aim: Efficient relationship between government and energy business Principles and mechanisms of realization Creation of favorable economic environment Support of strategic initiatives Optimization of tax burden Development of the insurance system of long-term investments’ risks Rationalization of amortization policy Formation of united leasing companies Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in the sphere of natural monopolies Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC Completion of liberalization processes in power generation System of prospective regulations, standards and norms Perfection of license policy, elimination of inadequate administrative barriers Stimulation of modernization and innovative development of FEC Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuff’s skills in FEC Strategic indicators of economic (budget) efficiency of FEC First stage Second stage Third stage Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC Financial stability of FEC and national economy 9 Ecological security of the energy sector Strategic indicators First stage Second stage Third stage Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, % by the level of 2005: no less than 15% no less than 30% no less than 50% Volume of greenhouse gases emission, % of 1990 level: no more than 83% no more than 92% no more than 105% Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 – 75%): 95% % by the level of 1990 110 95% 100 100 95% 105 Forecasted dynamics of СО2-emissions 89 90 80 80 70 73 92 82 76 69 70 60 50 1990 1995 2000 2005 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage 10 Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore Non-fuel energy Energy saving 11 Energy infrastructure: development and diversification OIL NATURAL GAS Baltic Pipeline System - 2 – 50 mln. т/y Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean – 80 mln. т/y North Stream – 55 bln. cub. m/y South Stream – 30 bln. cub. m/y 12 Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to satisfy the domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of export 13 Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources of New Regions (including Arctic offshore) Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia 600,0 1000 885-940 700 641 4 600 46 3 500 400 85-87 45-65 500,0 67-68 400,0 185220 470,1 24,5 49,1 52,2 30-32 300,0 4,4 5,3 0,2 new regions 3 530-535 mln. t bln. cub. m 800 new regions 900 300 Shift in oil extraction in Russia 32-33 69-75 21-22 42-43 25-29 34-36 131-137 200,0 585 334,3 200 317323 100 0 2005 2030 Nadyum-Pur-Taz Region European part of Russia Bolshekhetskaya valley Yamal Ob-Taz estuary Eastern Siberia Far East Others 301-303 100,0 0,0 2005 2030 Far East Eastern Siberia Northern Cacauses and Caspian region North and North-West of Russia Urals region Volga region Western Siberia 14 Non-fuel energy 35 Priority development: Forecasted development of renewable power generation 87 100 90 30 POWER GENERATION Renewable mln. kilowatt Hydro 25 70 61 20 60 50 15 40 25 10 30 20 18 5 Putting into operation installed capacity of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of renewable energy in power generation from 0,5 to 4,5% bln. kilowatt-hour 80 Nuclear 9 0,5 10 5 0 0 2005 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage Installed capacity, mln. Kilowatt Power generation on the basis of renewable energy resources, bln. kilowatt-hour 15 Energy Saving Potential of energy saving in Russia is estimated at level of 45% of the current consumption of energy resources Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by: 20% in heat supply Expected results of energy saving and increase in energy efficiency in Russia 1 Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln. kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products 2 Improvement in competitiveness of national economy under conditions of growing tariffs for energy resources 3 Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD 4 Decrease in governmental expanses: 3-5 bln. USD 5 Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/y Improvement in ecological situation in the country 30% in power generation 40% in industry and transportation 50% in living apartments 16 State Energy Policy in Russia Rational market environment Advanced standards and regulations Strategic initiatives Management of state property Development Formation of Subsoil of home rational resources energy energy management markets balance Social policy in the energy sector Regional energy policy External energy policy Scientific, technical and innovative policy 17 Export of primary energy resources up to 2030 18 Forecasted dynamics and structure of oil and oil products export Forecast of oil and oil products export 400 350 mln. t 328,1 20,2 339-341 332-349 30-33 47-55 Strategic directions of external energy policy Diversification of the commodity composition of export 306-329 300 70-80 Diversification of the directions of export 250 Support of Russian energy companies (from upstream to downstream) abroad 200 264,1 265 249 150 200 Stimulation of transit flows of oil through the Russian territory 100 50 43,8 264265 248249 194207 2005 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage 0 CIS Europe Formation of new Russian marker oil brand REBCO and promotion of its international trade Asia-Pacific 19 Forecasted dynamics and structure of Russian gas export Strategic directions of external energy policy Forecast of gas export 400,0 353-390 Diversification of export directions 336-359 350,0 300,0 310-311 256,0 24-36 159,8 158168 55 7075 Support of Russian energy companies (from upstream to downstream) abroad bln. cub. m 250,0 200,0 150,0 189194 201 100,0 50,0 95,8 88-90 8792 7892 2005 1 этап 2 этап 3 этап Import of natural gas from Central Asia and its re-export to the CIS mainly Production and transportation of LNG. Expansion into the new markets: the USA and Asia-Pacific 0,0 CIS West East 20 Forecast of investment in energy sector and energy supply of the national economy for the year of 2030 3000 2356-2763 Energy saving 242-253 2500 147-154 40-45 Autonomous energetics 113-134 Centralized heat supply bln. USD (2007) 2000 572-888 1311-1552 Renewable energetics 1500 158-160 29-34 1000 534-551 8-9 41-43 500 0 55-59 122-125 8-9 82-97 24-27 565-590 42-47 110-234 150-155 12-13 131-136 14-16 162-165 134-139 1st Stage 2nd Stage Coal industry Gas industry 24-28 7-9 Power generation 68-72 340-529 516-660 38-39 68-76 284-299 609-625 313-321 3rd Stage Oil industry Total 2008 -2030 24-32% of investment in FEC will be directed in power generation, 22-26% - in oil industry, 21-24% - in gas industry and 3% - in coal industry. The sphere of energy supply will receive 22-23% of investment, forecasted in ES-2030 21 Expected results of ES-2030 1) Guaranteed energy security of Russia and its regions 2) Competent participation of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of diversification of export 3) Gradual decrease in dependency of national economy from oil and gas sector and respective decline of FEC’s share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18% 4) Decrease in specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times 5) Optimization of fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in energy consumption from 52 to 46-47% and increase in the share of non-fuel energetics from 11 to 13-14% 6) Exploration and exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions 7) Development of the social partnership between energy companies and society 8) Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and investment prosperity of energy companies 9) Innovative renovation of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of new energy technologies 10) Ecological security and efficiency of FEC, limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to 100-105% by the level of 1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving 24 Thank you for your attention! 25