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Chapter 2 Measurement Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1 Measurement versus Theory Measurements of the performance of the economy. GDP, prices, savings, wealth, capital and labor. Build simple models to explain how the economy works. Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 2 Notation GDP Price level Consumption Investment Gov Spending Taxes Exports Y P C I G T X Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Imports Exchange Rate Net Exports Saving Capital Employment Unemployment IM ER NX S K E UE Slide 3 Measuring Gross Domestic Product GDP The dollar value of the final output produced during a given period of time within the borders of the United States. Published on a quarterly basis. Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 4 Three approaches to measuring GDP Value Added Approach (Product Approach) Income Approach Expenditure Approach Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 5 Example Economy Economic Agents Corn producer Hog producer Consumers Government Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 6 Setup Corn Producer Price $2 bushel 10 million bushels 4 m bushels Consumer 6 m bushels Hog producer Price $1.5 lb. 20 m lb. of hogs Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7 Table 2-1 Corn Producer Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 8 Table 2-2 Hog Producer Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 9 Table 2-3 After-Tax Profits After-tax profits = Total Revenue – Wages – Interest – Cost of Intermediate inputs - Taxes Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 10 Table 2-4 Government $ 4.5 m from producers and $ 1 m from consumers Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 11 Table 2-5 Consumers $ 5 m (Corn) + $ 4 m (Hog) + $ 5.5 m (Gov) Sum from Table 2.3 After-Tax Profits Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 12 Table 2-6 GDP – Product Approach How much value to you add to the final product? The sum of value added goods and services in production across all productive units in the economy Evaluate the bridge at the cost of inputs Table 2-2 Hog Producer Value added $ 30 - $ 12 = Value of final goods – value of intermediate goods EXPLAIN WHY? Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 13 Table 2-7 GDP – Expenditure Approach How much did you spend? The total spending on all final goods and services production in the economy Include Inventory Purchased the bridge at $ 5.5 m $ 8 m on Corn + $ 30 m on Hogs Total Expenditure = C + I + G + NX Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 14 Table 2-8 GDP – Income Approach How much did you earn? Add up all incomes received by economic agents contributing to production Taxes paid by producers Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 15 All approaches are equal Total output is ultimately sold. Total Output is also Total Income. Income-Expenditure Identity Y = C + I + G + NX Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 16 Inventories: Redo the same example with 3 million bushels of Corn kept as inventories Corn Producer Price $2 bushel 13 million bushels 3 m bushels 4 m bushels Inventories Consumer 6 m bushels Hog producer Price $1.5 lb. 20 m lb. of hogs Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 17 Table 2-9 Components of GDP Expenditure Approach Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 18 Table 2-10 Real vs. Nominal GDP Nominal year 1 Nominal year 2 Compute Real GDP for year 2 • year 1 as base • Chain-weighted Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 19 Figure 2-2 Nominal GDP (black line) and Chain-Weighted Real GDP (colored line) for the Period 1947-1999 REAL GDP = NOMINAL GDP / PRICE LEVEL Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 20 Table 2-11 Base Year vs. Chain-weighting Methods to Compute Inflation Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 21 Figure 2-3 Inflation Rate Calculated from the CPI (colored line), and Calculated from the Implicit GDP Price Deflator (black line) Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 22 ASSIGMENT II Consider an economy with a widget producer, consumers and a government. The widget producer, produces 100 millions widgets which sell at a market price of $5 per widget. 70 million widgets are purchased by consumers, 10 million are sold to the government and the remainder is stored as inventory. The widget producer pays $150 million in wages and $40 million in taxes. Consumers pay $30 million in taxes. The government spends all tax revenues to hire workers and purchase widgets as an intermediate good into the production of public infrastructure. The widgets total $50 million and wages total $20 million. Calculate GDP using the product approach, expenditure approach and income approach. Copyright © 2002 by O. Mikhail , Graphs are © by Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 23