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Restructuring HE System for 50 Million Enrolments in China in 2020 Wu Xiaofeng Chen Xin Wen Dongmao The IFE 2020 leadership Institute 06/0302009 Our Focus: the Challenges from HE Quantity the Gross Enrollment Rate in 2007: – 23% Total HE Enrolment in 2002 – 27 million In 2020 – 50 million or more 1978 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2015 2020 Total Enrollments of Regular HEIs In 2020 (in million) 51 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Outline Background Shifting from dominant paradigm to emerging paradigm – Access – Capacity – Quality Policy Implications Part 1 Background Demands for HE – Demographic change – Expectations to HE Environment for HE – Economic Development – Disparity/Inequality – Globalization – Technology Development HE Structures and Capacity with Dominant Paradigm Background(1): Demographic Change 1.32 billion (2008) 1.39 billion (2020) One Child Policy Population at various age groups from 2004 to 2020 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 小学阶段 Primary(6-11) 2008 2009 2010 2011 初中阶段 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 高中阶段 Junior middle(12-14) Senior middle(15-17) 2017 2018 2019 2020 大学阶段 Tertiary(18-22) Expectations for HE Family Children’s future Government Transform population stress to human resources advantage Knowledge society/economy Background(2): HE Environments Economic Development Disparity/Inequality Globalization Technology Development 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 The GDP per capita Growth 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Central Area 64% of Land 4% of Population 3 East Area West Area Hu HuanYong Line (黑河——腾冲) 2 36% of Land 96% of Population 1 Income difference between rural area and urban area 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.86 1 3.23 0.5 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1985 1980 0 Gini Coefficient 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991 1995 2000 2004 Globalization China and globalization The most fundamental challenge confronting HE in its history Competition locally and internationally Technology development IT development (PPT, Video, direct discussion via Internet); 2. Transportation development; 1. Technology development IT development -we don’t need go to Institutions to have education; 2. Transportation development -we can go to institutions easily to Providing more possibilities for people have education; to get HE. 1. Background(3): HE Structures and Capacity with Dominant Paradigm 2007 Formal/ Informal Public/ private 2020 Institutes Enrolment Institutes Enrolment Formal 1908 20 3530 37 Informal 413 7 764 13 Public 2045 22.7 3783 42 Private 276 4.3 511 8 Expanding without structural change? – Campus? Land Building Facilities – Human Resources ? Another 1million have PHD? Another 1 million Staff? – Funding? – Function? Access & Equity Equity Graduate (job) Study Access Access challenges Largest HE in the world; 2. HE chances for those who need (except 18-22 ages); 3. National exam based to ? 1. Access Equity Income difference Urban-rural Ethnic minorities Gender Age Access Equity Item Solutions Income difference Public and private sectors Urban-rural Ethnic minorities Gender Age More public education resources to rural area Quota Equal chance for secondary education Off-campus study Access Equity Globalization Multi-culture Diversity Access Equity Having more foreign students Sending more Chinese students studying overseas Support international institutions Part 2 Restructuring(2): Capacity Resource sharing – Department/grogram level – Institution level – System level Public-private Partnership Formal-informal Partnership HEIs - Community partnership Global Partnership Department level Institutional level System level Country level Public/Private Partnership for Chinese HE in 2020 public founding High Private Public Sector China China low Capacity Campus Land Building Facilities Human Resources Funding Function Part 2 Restructuring(3): Quality Current policy and practice Quality assurance of undergraduate Education Higher Education Evaluation Center (2002) 592 HEIs evaluated (2003-07) Positive Impact Physical capacity Financial capacity Human resources capacity Managerial capacity Problems Results not convincing Single standard and uniform indicators Burden for HEIs Falsification Restructuring of QA Integration of government and associations Diversified standards and indicators Different stakeholders’ involvement Students focused Part 3: Policy Implications Public funding for Private HEIs/Informal HEIs – Need based Loan/Grant Legislation for Resource sharing – Awards/ Penalty Credits transfer for students mobility Flexible Salary for Faculty mobility One World One Dream http://you.video.sina.com.cn/b/108038721270281574.html One World One Center EWC, Hawaii