Download 2009-PIK-Additional Study-WP1

Research for the Sustainable Development of the Megacities of
Tomorrow - Energy and Climate efficient Structures in Urban
Growth Centres
Hyderabad as a Megacity of Tomorrow: Climate and Energy in a
Complex Transition towards Sustainable Hyderabad – Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies by Changing Institutions, Governance
Structures, Lifestyles and Consumption Patterns
Project funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF),
Germany.
QUALITATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT NETWORKS FOR HYDERABAD /
INDIA
Diana Reckien, Sonja Hofmann, Oleksandr Kit
(Nr 2009 / PIK / Supplement)
Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad
Hyderabad as a Megacity of Tomorrow: Climate and Energy in a Complex
Transition towards Sustainable Hyderabad – Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies by Changing Institutions, Governance Structures, Lifestyles and
Consumption Patterns
Project funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany:
“Research for the Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow”
Humboldt University Berlin
Leader of the Project Consortium:
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Konrad Hagedorn
Coordinator of the Project:
Dr. Ramesh Chennamaneni
Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences
Division of Resource Economics
Philippstr. 13, House 12
10099 Berlin
Germany
Phone: ++49 30 20936305
Fax: ++ 49 30 20936497
Email: [email protected]
[email protected]
Web: http://www.sustainable-hyderabad.de
http://www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/wisola/fg/ress/
Background Studies / Stakeholder Analysis / Concept Papers
(Supplementary analysis to qualitative climate change impact networks for
Hyderabad / India)
Qualitative Climate Change Impact Networks for
Hyderabad / India
Diana Reckien, Sonja Hofmann, Oleksandr Kit
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Research Domain II: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Pappelallee 20, 14469 Potsdam
Postal address:
Postfach 601203, 14412 Potsdam
Tel.: +49 331 288 2628
Email: [email protected]
TYPE: Background Study / Concept Paper
May 2009
Abstract
In this report we unearth the potential impacts of climate change on the city of Hyderabad/
India and mainly do so along a discussion of the five thematic fields: transport, energy, water,
food and health. We start with an overview of India’s vulnerability to climate change in
general and proceed with a closer look on the thematic fields. We address their current state,
infrastructure development, the supply and demand structure, social access to and related
problems of the thematic fields. Then, the five areas are analyzed in terms of their current
climate impacts and vulnerability as well as with respect to their potential impacts under an
on-going, future climate change. Mainly, three methods were used for data generation, i.e.
literature review, expert interviews and newspaper analysis. All climate impacts, as
ascertained to date, were pictured in three climate impact path networks (influence diagrams)
that provide an overview of the impacts of climate on the strongly interrelated themes
transport and infrastructure, energy and water, food and health. Next to the on-going
consolidation of the climate impact analysis, future work will focus on deriving adaptation
options for different thematic fields, social structures and layers of governmental or spatial
jurisdiction.
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1 Outline, Aims of the task, Deliverable1 PIK: WP1
The first year’s focus of WP1 within the research network “Energy and climate
in a complex transition process towards sustainable Hyderabad” was to
statistically analyze the climate projections of Atmosphere-Ocean-GeneralCirculation-Models and to assess their uncertainty, as well as to start developing
potential climate change impact paths and networks of the urban subsystems
transport/built infrastructures, health, food provision and security, and water,
energy and natural resources (the in-depth issue areas of other work packages) in
a qualitative manner. Whereas the first two foci are specified elsewhere (Lüdeke
and Budde, 2009), this paper draws on the latter elaborating potential climate
impact relations in the regional and local urban context allowing to derive
successful adaptation options for Hyderabad under progressive climate change.
Understanding the interactions between climate and various subsystems of the
city is a necessary prerequisite for the quantitative modeling envisaged in a latter
stage of the project. We are preparing the urban assessment modeling exercise
with CATHY, the climate assessment tool for Hyderabad. A brief
characterization of the climate change impact debate and adaptation discourse in
India is given in the beginning.
2 Introduction
2.1 Climate Change in India
The subcontinent India is a rapidly growing nation with about 1131 million
inhabitants in 2005 (UN, World population prospects, 2008) and 1027 million as
on 1st March, 2001 (year of last census; Government of India, Ministry of
Urban Development, 2008). At that time about 742 million people lived in rural
and 285 million in urban areas. Although the absolute increase of population in
rural areas was higher than in urban areas (113 million against 68 million,
respectively; 1991-2001), the percentage decadal growth rate in towns and urban
agglomerations was much higher (17.9% rural versus 31.3% urban population
growth, respectively). 27.8% of all Indians live in urban areas, trend increasing
(2.1% increase in comparison to former census; Government of India, Ministry
of Urban Development, 2008). In 2030, Indian’s urbanization rate is projected to
account to about 40.7% (UN, State of the World’s cities 2008/2009). Indian
cities are growing rapidly; more and more megacities1 emerge. There is a
substantial need for adaptation to climate change in both, rural and urban areas.
1
A megacity is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10
million people.
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However, the concentration of people in towns and cities can make them places
of successful and efficient adaptation and of high need for mitigation efforts.
Compared to high income countries India’s carbon emissions are still relatively
low, especially when looking at its per capita emissions (about 1.31 metric tones
of CO2 per capita and year in 2006; Germany 10.70, USA 18.10 for the same
period and unit; UNSTATS, August 2009). However, the total CO2 emission
equivalents account to about 1.1 billion metric tones per year (see Figure 1 and
2) and are projected to rise substantially. Until 2030 India’s total CO2 emissions
might reach close to the European Union’s (EU) level of about 4 billion metric
tonnes (UN, 2009). Other sources estimate an even stronger increase with up to
7 billion metric tonnes per year in 2031/2032 (TERI’s business as usual
calculations presented at Poznan 2008; CSE India). Globally, India is therefore
projected to become a big emitter of CO2 emissions in the near future.
Discussions about India’s mitigation perspective are not far-fetched.
Figure 2-1: Carbon Emissions in the USA, the EU, China and India, 2005
and 2030
Source: UN (2008), p.136
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Figure 2-2: Total CO2 Emissions by country, in 2000
Source: Marland et al. (2003)
Looking at impacts and adaptation, India’s situation is different. It has currently
a high, above average vulnerability and might be able to lower its vulnerability
to a modest, below average state by 2050. Figure 2.3 shows India’s vulnerability
in a global comparison and for a high emission scenario in 2050. Figure 2.4
pictures one indicator of its current vulnerability, climate change related death.
We need to point out however that the non-accountable or non-measurable
impacts can expected to be much higher.
Figure 2-3: Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 without
mitigation and a static representation of current adaptive capacity along
an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C
Source: IPCC, AR4 WGII TS, p.77
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Figure 2-4: Estimated death attributed to climate change in the year 2000
compared to baseline climate 1961-1990, by sub-regions
Source: McMichael, JJ et al. (2004); http://www.news.wisc.edu/11878
Despite India’s significant vulnerability to climate change, the present discourse
on climate change impacts, sensitivity and adaptive capacities seems to be small.
Reusswig et al. (2009) discourse analysis also show that climate change in India
is mainly discussed against the background of mitigation possibilities and needs.
The impacts and potential adaptation options have so far gained limited
attention.
India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change (Prime Minister’s Council
on Climate Change, 2008) supported this presumption. The technical document
covers 41 pages in total. Three out of these 41 pages describe current programs
on impacts and adaptation, 2 out of 8 missions under climate change address
impacts and adaptation whereas 5 are looking at mitigation issues. On the
national policy level, climate change was assigned to the Ministry of
Environment and Forests formerly and has been moved to the Prime Ministers
(PM) Office in 2007. There and then, the PM’s Council on Climate Change was
launched. Since, the issue of climate change has gained importance within the
national, political arena, but aspects of impacts and adaptation seem to be
handled as subordinate issue, still. The national Ministry of Urban Development,
which is of interest for our focus on Hyderabad, does not have a particular focus
on climate change (yet), and this position or circumstance trickles down to the
state, the district and the local level, where most impacts are felt hardest. If it
would be true that climate change in India is mainly discussed with respect to
the mitigation of climate change and carbon emission reductions, there is a high
need for impacts and adaptation studies.
India’s increasing urbanization adds another reason for a rising need of impact
assessments in cities. The UN has estimated that urban inequalities (Ginicoefficient for consumption) in India are still relatively low compared to other
countries in Asia, and that they remained constant since about the 1970s. This is
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an achievement especially under the consideration of India’s recent
developmental trends and average income gains. However, noting that India’s
slum prevalence is between 25.1-50% (UN Habitat, 2008) with Hyderabad being
at about 30% (MCH, 2005) this achievement in relative urban equality translates
into a huge part of the population being poor and living in slums. Providing
them and other vulnerable groups of the society with sound information of
climate change impacts and adaptation options is the central aim of WP1 in the
Hyderabad megacities network. The identification of the overall impacts of
climate on the natural and anthropogenic environment of Hyderabad as a
megacity of tomorrow and the development of qualitative impact networks as
graphical representation for the impact on selected urban subsystems is the first
in a number of steps to do so and the aim of this paper. More precisely, the
following key questions will be answered:
• What are the principal climate variables that drive and constrain the
transportation as well as water and energy sector, health and food availability
in Hyderabad?
• What are the principal impacts of the identified key climate variables and
processes on transport, water, energy, health and food in Hyderabad?
• What are the interactions between various impacts and how do they
contribute to Hyderabad’s aerosol and greenhouse gases emissions?
Before we introduce the methodology and present the results we will give a
short overview of Hyderabad, its economic, demographic and social context and
its role in the Indian urban hierarchy. We will also reflect on the status of the
issue areas: transport, water, energy, health and food.
2.2 Introduction to Hyderabad and its urban subsystems
2.2.1 Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh/ India)
Hyderabad is a fast growing megacity in the central south of India. After
Bangalore, situated about 500km to Hyderabad’s South, it is the second most
important economic centre for the Indian IT-industry. Another strand of the
local economy lies on the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry.
Hyderabad is one of the fastest growing cities in India. With a population of
5,530,000 million people in 2001 it is the sixth largest city in India (Ministry of
Urban Development, Census of India). The Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration
(HUA) consists of the Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad (MCH), 12
peripheral municipalities, Secunderabad Cantonment, Osmania University and
other areas. The population of HUA increased from 4.3 million in 1991 to 5.7
million in 2001. The population grew by more than 50 % during 1981-91 and by
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about 27% during 1991-2001. However, several well established urban
components of the city are located well beyond the Urban Agglomeration
(MCH, 2005). The population density was 7,393 people/km² (2001) in the whole
urban agglomeration (HUA) and about 21,048 people/km² in the core area of
MCH (MCH, 2005). For comparison, Berlins population density is about half of
that with 3831 people/km² and 13381 people/km² in the core area of
Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg, 2008).
Hyderabad’s future population was given with an estimated 6.5 million people
in 2005, with 7.7 million people in 2011 and 10.8 million in 2021 (MCH, 2005).
The urban agglomeration can therefore be called a megacity by around 2020,
whereas the scenarios for the wider urban agglomeration (HMDA area) project a
crossing of the 10 million mark by 2015 (MCH, 2005).
Due to its central location within India and the fact that Hyderabad is situated on
the Deccan Plateau its climate is rather mild. The monsoon climate brings rain
from June to October (with two peaks in July and September)(see Lüdeke and
Budde, 2009). Hyderabad has a hilly and rocky orography, compared to other
regions in India it is rather dry and far away from bigger rivers.
2.2.2 State of the transport sector in Hyderabad: supply and demand
Hyderabad’s transport situation is overshadowed by the enormous number of
motorized vehicles on the roads causing protracted traffic jams and air pollution.
The rapid increase in two- and four-wheelers in recent years is mainly made
responsible for the burgeoning traffic situation (see Schäfer et al., 2009). Figure
5 shows the development of motorization in India as a whole. Figure 6 and 7 set
this development into perspective by comparing the so called Tier1 cities. The
Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board (discussion at the APPCB) estimates
that 2.2 Mio. vehicles exist in Hyderabad, and 600 are added each day.
Figure 2-5: Sale of
cars and twowheelers, 19932001 (in thousand)
Source, all: 3iNetwork
(2006), p.107.
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Figure 2-6: Percentage Growth in Figure 2-7: Share of two-wheelers
Population and Vehicles (1981-2001) in total registered vehicles, 31
March 2003
in selected metro cities
Key: 1 lakh = 100,000
Hyderabad’s transportation requirements are largely met by four transportation
modes: buses, the rail based Multi Modal Transport System (MMTS), the paratransit of three and seven seated autos, and private vehicles. Buses serve most of
the public transport holding a modal share of 42% and a 4% fleet, while serving
98.3% of all trips made by public transport. The MMTS provides a share of
1.7% of the public transport offered, while the Para transit contributes to nearly
10% of all vehicles. The mode share of private vehicles (two and four wheelers)
sums up to about 50% of the total vehicular traffic (MCH, 2005).
Due to the increase in traffic, walking and cycling has almost become
impossible on many major roads in the city. Flyovers (elevated roads to serve
faster traffic flows) dominate the city skyline and the bus transportation system
is rather insufficient. Hyderabad is in the same situation as other cities in India
in that respect, i.e. the share of buses in relation to the total registered vehicles in
India was constantly decreasing since 1952 (3iNetwork, 2006). Urban/suburban
trains are serving commuters and intra-urban passengers, but the overall
acceptance in Hyderabad is low (Schäfer et al., 2009). The MMTS serves only
1.7% of commuting passengers (35,000 passenger trips per day; MCH, 2005),
while the rest of the trips are taken by bus. A very low frequency of about 40 to
80 minutes between two successive trains during peak periods is one reason,
lack of integration with the bus-system and high fares (for many households in
absolute terms, but also as compared to transport in other urban agglomerations
of India; 3iNework, 2006) being others (MCH, 2005). A metro line was planned
and its construction started but has now been differed due to unethical business,
corruption and bankruptcy of the construction company. There are strong
protests against such metro line as the prices would be even higher than the
existing systems and would therefore only serve a very small proportion of the
society. However, only 30% of all commuters in Hyderabad use public transport
for commuting anyway (discussion at the APPCB).
10
Public road transport in Hyderabad is still operated by diesel and petrol (only).
The taxis, auto rickshaws and buses, have not yet been converted to run with
compressed natural gas (CNG) as seen in other big cities of India, e.g. in Delhi,
nor to alternative energy sources such as hydrogen. But, the introduction is
planed for next year (discussion at the APPCB). However and despite the
advantages that CNG brings to decreasing air pollution levels, its health effects
are still under discussion. It is not clear whether a reduction in the size of
particular matter results in a positive or negative impact on respiratory diseases
(Bose and Sundar, 2005). Moreover, using CNG in motorized transport does not
gain in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Much in contrast, CNG seems to
cause slightly higher CO2 emissions/kilometre of driving in the Indian context
(ARAI, 2007). This is certainly an aspect to keep in mind when focusing on the
climate impacts on Hyderabad’s transport sector.
Despite the massive increase in motorized individual traffic and registered
vehicles in India and Hyderabad, projected future mode shares are clearly
pointing towards an increase in public transport and cycling (see Figure 8). It is
a testimony for strong motivations and challenging visions.
Figure 2-8:
Projected mode
share of vehicular
trips per day
Source: 3iNetwork
(2006), p116.
For a detailed view on Hyderabad’s transport situation see Schäfer et al. (2009).
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2.2.3 State of the water sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
At the beginning of the 21st century Hyderabad received approximately
25million m3 of water/month from rivers and reservoirs plus an extra of about
3.3million from ground sources (van Rooijen et al, 2005). However, those
numbers should be handled with care as up to 30-50% of water is lost during
transportation and a significant amount of groundwater extraction cannot be
documented (van Rooijen et al, 2005; Zérah, 2005). Groundwater resources are
extremely stressed as exploitation and recharge are highly mismatching. In some
areas of Hyderabad such as the Rasoolpura slum only 15% of the groundwater is
naturally recharged, with the remaining fraction coming either from leaking
water mains (50%) or sewers (35%)(Mondialogo, 2007).
The Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (HMWSSB) is
a statutory authority in charge of providing and maintaining water supply and
sewerage facilities in Hyderabad and surrounding municipalities. According to
the HMWSSB, the following external water sources are used to augment the
water supply in Hyderabad:
Table 2-1: External water supply sources for Hyderabad
Source Name
Osmansagar
Himayatsagar
Manjira –
Phase I & II
Manjira –
Phase III & IV
Krishna
Phase-I
Krishna PhaseII
Total
Year of
Commission
Distance from the
city, km
1920
1927
15 (gravity)
9.6 (gravity)
1965 & 1981
58 (pumping)
1991 & 1994
80 (pumping)
2004/05
2006-08
116
(pumping/gravity)
116
(pumping/gravity)
Capacity
Installed
(Mgd)
27
18
45
(15+30)
75
(37 + 38)
Present
Supply
Quantity
(Mgd)
Storage
(TMC)
3.90
2.967
18
10
1.500
45
30.00
75
90
90
1.50
90
345
90
39.816
328
Source: MCH (2005) Hyderabad City Development Plan.
Key: Mgd – Mega gallons per day; TMC - thousand million cubic feet
The main sources of surface water for Hyderabad are therefore from the
following four rivers:
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• Osmansagar on River Musi
• Himayatsagar on Esi River
• Manjira River
• Krishna River
Despite the partly long distances of water transportation, the water availability
for drinking purposes is insufficient and, according to Savage and Dasgupta
(2006) rapidly deteriorating over time. In the early 1980ies, the Hyderabad
population was served with water on average 19 hours per day. Challenged by
the explosion of population numbers and an ageing infrastructure this level
could not be hold. The result is a decrease of the average water delivery to about
2.5 hours per day in the 1990ies and to 1.5 hours per day after 2000 (Savage and
Dasgupta, 2006). Any variability in precipitation, let alone extreme climate
events, further aggravates that situation as it has a direct impact on the drinking
water supply in Hyderabad.
Man-made water tanks and small reservoirs are a potential answer to the
deteriorating situation, but their water holding capacity is also fluctuating over
time. The ageing reservoirs are filled up with sediments and do not reach the
designed holding capacity anymore, e.g. like the Osmansagar and Himayatsagar
reservoirs. At the same time, ancient reservoirs such as Hussainsagar are
unusable at all due to the accumulation of toxic sediments. The water storage
capacity of the reservoirs is further constrained by the construction of check
dams and encroachments in their catchment areas (Ramachandraiah, 2007).
Access to external water resources incurs in significant costs which have to be
met by HMWSSB and ultimately by the population. Due to Hyderabad’s
orography, water resources from the Krishna river basin need to be pumped into
the city, leaving HMWSSB with an electricity bill of Rs. 18/m3. At the same
time, one m3 of free-flowing water from Osmansagar and Himayatsagar costs
the board only Rs 3.50. Further, the board is faced with the debt-servicing
burden of the Krishna water project, amounting to several crores per month
(Veda Kumar et al., 2007).
The water-related constraints of a sustainable development of Hyderabad cannot
be considered a natural or technological phenomenon alone. Often, it is the
discriminatory access and a lack in quantum that deprives a certain sections of
the population. Hence, the droughts that periodically affect Hyderabad are better
understood as a result from alternative patterns of demand and not always as a
decrease in water as such (Jairath and Mustafa, 2008).
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2.2.4 State of the energy sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
India’s energy industry is characterised by an almost constantly occurring
“energy-crunch” (3iNetwork, 2006). This does not only but most urgently count
for electricity. Electricity is the major source of energy for most of the urban
middle and upper class households, as its use increases with social status and
income. The urban poor mainly rely on other fuels such as coal, kerosene,
petroleum or firewood to cover their most urgent energy needs, e.g. for cooking.
They are often undersupplied with electricity. However, high-energy consuming
equipment is frequently seen among all household classes and in industrial
plants in particular, often because of the lack of capital to replace it with energyefficient ones and partly because of a lacking need to care due to power theft
(3iNetwork, 2006).
The increasing need for electricity on the demand side collides with a
widespread mismanagement of the electricity distribution system on the supply
side. This leads to a suffering of the poorer households, who often need to buy
their energy in form of inefficient fuels. Although the government subsidizes
energy, it is not likely to reach them. Big-scale electricity theft, mainly of big
industries, aggravates the energy crises. Frequent power cuts are the norm,
energy efficiency is very low and energy conservation rare. The substantial gap
between electricity supply and demand raises big concerns about energy
security. In 2001, the gap between electricity demand and supply was 7.8%,
with peak power shortage being as high as 13%. About 70% of electrical
capacity in India as a whole is based on the use of coal resources; nearly 75% of
the coal consumed is used for power generation purposes (3iNetwork).
Renewable energy sources are seen as one viable option to meet the increasing
energy demand in urban areas although they are yet little explored. Table 2-2
shows a comparison between the potential and the already implemented capacity
of various renewable energy sources (national averages). Solar-assisted energy
generation seems to be most appropriate and viable for the implementation in
urban areas (3iNetwork), although the suitability might differ from city to city.
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Table 2-2: Renewable
energy potential and
achievements in India
Source: 3iNetwork (2006),
p194.
Viability of renewable energy sources is one major component of WP3.2 and
WP2.1 of the research network. For a detailed view on that and other issues of
energy provision, demand and security in the Hyderabad region see therefore
also Rommel et al. (2009) and Reusswig et al. (2009).
2.2.5 State of the health sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
Reliable data on health and food security is hard to ascertain as the official
authorities, e.g. the Indian Ministry of Health and Welfare, do not collect data
on health care (Rastogi, 2006) and food related aspects. There is no uniform
organizational structure for health services and no efficient public health care
system. Municipal and private sector hospitals, including those of voluntary
organizations, exist parallel and most of these services are not intended to serve
the urban poor and slum population. This is particularly fatal as the high poverty
levels coincide with appalling slum conditions and a climate conducive to the
occurrence of communicable diseases and its multiplication (Rastogi, 2006).
This means that for about 30% of the slum population in Hyderabad (MCH,
2005) no effective health care system is available. To improve the situation 64
primary health care centres were newly established in Hyderabad’s slums
recently (MCH, 2005).
Without disregarding the incomplete picture concerning the health data, Prasad
and Ramachandraiah (2007) have indicated major tendencies in the health sector
in Hyderabad. They found that communicable diseases and infections are on a
renascent trend in previous years. Especially the high numbers of diarrhea and
15
enteric fever among children in slum colonies are distressing. MCH (2005) has
recorded that gastro-enteritis, dysentery, liver enlargement, malnutrition,
ringworm, scabies and other skin diseases are frequently found in Hyderabad’s
slums. A point of concern is also the abrupt rise of Chikungunya2 cases in 2006.
Tuberculosis, Diphtheria and Malaria are the most frequent causes for morbidity
in Hyderabad.
The ground water supply and its quality play a crucial role in the health aspects;
groundwater is an important source of water for the Hyderabad’s population and
industries. A rapid industrialization and uncontrolled exploitation of ground
water resulted in a fast depletion of these resources in the last decades (see
above). In many areas close to industrial plants, for example Katedan,
Sanathnagar, Patancheru, Saroornagar and Jeedimetla groundwater is infiltrated
with hazardous chemical substances and not suitable for human consumption
(MCH, 2005). In Table 2-3 the basic services, including drinking water supply
and sanitation facilities for all slum colonies of the MCH area are displayed
(third row). Please note the number of toilets for the slum population. About one
third of the slums have individual water service connections and the rest depend
upon public taps.
2
Chikungunya virus is an insect-borne virus that is transmitted to humans by virus-carrying
Aedes mosquitoes and causes an illness with symptoms similar to dengue fever.
16
Table 2-3: Basic infrastructure in Slums
Source: MCH (2005).
Health concerns in India also relate to air quality. The Andhra Pradesh Pollution
Control Board has estimated recently that the citizens of Hyderabad breathe in
691 tons of air pollutants every day. Of this, CO has a share of 392 tons, HC 240
tons, NOX 44 tons, SO2 6 tons, and SPM 10 tons and lead 0.162 tons (MCH,
2005).
2.2.6 State of the food sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
In India, the food supply chain is generally operated at two levels, the farmer’s
and the food processor level. Due to natural characteristics, monsoon patterns,
particularities of crops, market characteristics, etc. the supply chain in India is,
unlike in Europe, disjointed. The food supply chain(s) on the farmer’s level
depends on people, their machines, vehicles, vessels, containers, tools and other
tackles that help to distribute the food. On the processor level it depends on a
multitude of other infrastructural facilities, i.e. roads, ports, railway lines,
airports, pipelines and ropeways, but also on storage possibilities and
warehouses that only provide support in time (Acharyulu, 2006).
Urban food demand has recently seen two trends in food consumption and
security. First, more purchasing power in the middle class leads to more fast
food and to eating at chains. This leads to the “rich-country” health problems
such as obesity among children and diabetes moving forward. Second, at the
same time there are still plenty of marginalized urban dwellers that suffer from
food insecurity, malnutrition and poor health. “Among them, hunger is
17
increasing and there is a lack of access to health centers” (Christoph Dittrich).
Declared state-level food security does not necessarily translate into householdlevel food security. “The urban poor, particularly, rely on street foods to
provide them with a variety of food items that otherwise would not be accessible
to them in close proximity to their place of residence” (Smith et al., 2007).
As a consequence of both trends, the overall percentage of household money
spent on food has dropped steadily in Andhra Pradesh during the last decades
(see Table 2-4). Among many households, the enormous price increases for rice
(“to historical highs globally”, BBC News, 13 April 2008) in recent years might
be one factor; employment loss can be another. As unstable jobs result in
unstable incomes and urban households, unlike many rural households, need to
earn money to procure their food, especially the urban households are vulnerable
to hunger and malnutrition. The amount of money available per day and
household is often so little that food has to be bought on a day by day basis. This
translates into higher prices per unit (as compared to buying larger volumes) and
is felt as an enormous increase in food insecurity among the urban poor (Smith
et al., 2007). The urban middle and upper classes on the other hand earn more
and spend less, if it comes to the percentage of income used for food. Both
trends might lead to a decrease of expenditure for food.
Table 2-4: Per capita consumption expenditure in urban areas
Source: Planning Commission of India (2001), p.152.
A pattern of food consumption in a peri-urban area of Hyderabad is shown in
Figure 2-9.
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Figure 2-9: Food consumption pattern in the peri-urban Uppal area
Source: Buechler and Devi (2003)
Collective data to the food supply of Hyderabad’s population does to our
knowledge not exist. Thus, it is not clear where the food is produced. 12% of the
MCH area is used as open ground and for agricultural purposes (MCH, 2005).
The so produced crops are consumed by the members of the farmer’s household
directly or sold on the city markets (Buechler and Devi, 2003). The most
common crops cultivated within the city area are para grass for animal feeding,
green leafy vegetables, banana and coconut palms (Figure 2-10). Surpluses of
agricultural products from Hyderabad’s peri-urban areas are also commonly
brought into the city and marketed there. Distances up to 60 km for fresh fruits
and vegetables and up to 100 km for wheat are commonly daily crossed to
deliver agricultural products to Hyderabad’s markets (Interview partner of
AFPRO, 2009).
Figure 2-10:
Proportion of crops
grown in
Hyderabad urban
area
Source: Buechler and
Devi, 2003
19
2.3 Methods
We follow an Integrated Assessment (IA) approach on the local and regional
levels as adopted from Kapshe et al. (2003). Figure 2-11 pictures the IA
framework when adapted to the regional situation and specifies details of
responsibility in the project.
WP2.1
Global
Emissions and
Atmospheric
Change
Lokal/regional
Emissions:
Enegy systems, other
emissions
F
Mitigation
Combined scenario exercise
Global Policy
Regimes and
International
Agreements
Temperature rise,
precipitation change,
drought and flood
e
Socio Economic
Development Paths:
d
population, economy,
technology, governance
a
Adaptation
Climate Change:
Adaptation
WP1
e
WP1
b
c
k
Figure 2-11:
Integrated
Assessment
framework
for the local
and
regional
level
Adopted from:
Kapshe et al.
(2003);
modified
Impacts:
Human (and natural) urban
systems
To derive conclusions about the impacts of future climate change on human (and
natural) systems we start with an analysis of present and recent climate impacts
on urban subsystems in Hyderabad. In general, an impact analysis demands
three steps: (1) evaluate future climate change stresses (part of WP1’s task to
evaluate climate change scenarios), (2) detect the direction (and, if possible, the
magnitude) of influence of climate variables on certain subsystems, and (3)
identify potential thresholds for its functioning, the boundary of the subsystems’
coping capacity and a means for its inherent sensitivity, i.e. when the risk of a
climate change impact becomes “dangerous” (Shukla, 2003). The latter two
aspects are part of this investigation, whereas in our view a threshold of coping
capacity as mentioned in (3) is crossed, when an impact is reported in the news
or literature. We therefore do not only account for dangerous impacts, but also
for damages in general. We employed an extensive literature review (scientific
papers), conducted expert interviews and searched the newspapers. We will
shortly explain each of the methods used.
20
2.3.1 Literature
An extensive literature research was accomplished for all relevant topics of WP1
on the basis of scientific papers, books and web articles. A keyword search in
the ISI Web of Knowledge and different internet search machines was used to
identify relevant articles and books. Then, an iterative search of references
within these papers resulted in a wide range of literature being used.
2.3.2 Indian News
We analyzed regional and national Indian newspapers that are published in
English language. The Hindu (5.3 million readers) and the Times of India (13.5
million readers), which are both nationwide, and the Deccan Chronicle (5
million readers; all figures: Media Research Users Council, 2008), which is a
regional newspaper in Andhra Pradesh were used for investigation. The news
was inspected in various ways:
1. Reading the daily news online (newspapers version) – starting 3 April 09
(including weekends, when articles are still available on Monday).
2. Using the paper version of newspapers collected in India for two complete
weeks (23 January to 5 February).
3. Selecting archived news from The Hindu online (starting 1 Jan 2000).
4. Daily news of the Deccan Chronicle, The Hindu, The Times of India, The
Hindustan Times was skim-read for relevant topics during our stay in
India. The pages with relevant articles were taken back home and
reviewed intensively. News from the collected newspaper as well as the
daily news gives an insight into the topics discussed in the newspapers
during a non-monsoon time with no specific occasion.
5. A database of articles from The Hindu archive had been compiled by
WP2.1 based on a keyword search. This was made available to us. A
review of all relevant articles was accomplished. Here, the news articles
are used as a source of information on relevant topics.
Furthermore, a list of precipitation events during the time period 2000-2008 was
used for an in-depth analysis of news. For the strongest 3% of all precipitation
events, which are 20 events altogether, the news in The Hindu was examined
(see Figure 2-12). All news in the context to these precipitation events was
collected and the discussed topics summarized in a table (Appendix III). We
started collecting news on the day of rainfall and proceeded along the days until
no more news with relevance to the precipitation event were found. This
approach can be extended for heat wave or drought events.
21
Begumpet/Hyderabad Precipitation Records
Prc [mm]
30 per. Mov. Avg. (Prc [mm])
250
200
150
100
50
Figure 2-12: Daily precipitation records in Begumpet/Hyderabad
Source: own work
2.3.3 Interviews
During a research stay in Hyderabad stakeholder interviews were conducted.
Relevant stakeholders from administrations, NGOs and community groups
working with climate change, its reduction and potential impacts and adaptation
options were approached and asked for an interview. Many contacts existed
from the pre-phase of the Hyderabad project; other key persons were found
through internet research. WP1 could profit from the stakeholder analysis in
WP2.1.
The interviews were conducted face to face with either, potential experts in a
certain subsystem of the urban area (e.g. a medical doctor for the respective
impacts on health), or experts in climate change studies (e.g. the founders from
The Climate Alliance). Both views can help answering our research questions.
We developed an open interview guideline to assure a certain degree of
comparability of the results and minimize subliminal interference/manipulation
by the interviewer. The interview guideline is attached as appendix, as well as
the list of interviewees.
2.4 Results
Four climate variables with relevance to the impacts on urban functions (see also
Satterthwaite et al., 2007, McMichael et al., 2003) have been identified (see
Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). These are:
22
20.11.2007
10.09.2007
01.07.2007
21.04.2007
09.02.2007
30.11.2006
20.09.2006
11.07.2006
01.05.2006
19.02.2006
10.12.2005
30.09.2005
21.07.2005
11.05.2005
01.03.2005
20.12.2004
10.10.2004
31.07.2004
21.05.2004
11.03.2004
31.12.2003
21.10.2003
11.08.2003
01.06.2003
22.03.2003
10.01.2003
31.10.2002
21.08.2002
11.06.2002
01.04.2002
20.01.2002
10.11.2001
31.08.2001
21.06.2001
11.04.2001
30.01.2001
20.11.2000
10.09.2000
01.07.2000
21.04.2000
10.02.2000
01.12.1999
21.09.1999
12.07.1999
02.05.1999
20.02.1999
11.12.1998
01.10.1998
22.07.1998
12.05.1998
02.03.1998
21.12.1997
11.10.1997
01.08.1997
22.05.1997
Jahr
12.03.1997
0
• the frequency distribution of daily precipitation, e.g. heavy rain events which
cause urban flooding,
• the frequency and length of heat waves,
• the total annual precipitation,
• the mean annual temperature in the region. From these four major climate
variables a multitude of impacts follow for the Hyderabad transport sector,
i.e. the users of certain transport modes and the infrastructure to sustain it
(Lüdeke and Budde, 2009).
In the following the impacts of these variables on the sectors of interest are
looked at in detail.
2.4.1 Impacts of climate change on the transport sector in Hyderabad
The transport sector provides mobility, which is the service to enable a
translocation of goods and people in space. Climate can impact on mobility in
mainly three ways by (1) reducing passenger safety and the transportation of
goods due to a direct damage of passengers or infrastructures, (2) impacting on
the reliability of the transport, and in the case of passenger transport, (3)
reducing the comfort of travel (Reckien et al., 2009).
Infrastructure is typically designed to tolerate a reasonable level of variability
within a climate regime that existed when it was designed and built. However,
climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme
events, which may influence the infrastructure in the long run. As direct impacts
on the transport system following issues can be named:
• the (potentially increasing) exposure to flooding, rain water runoff and
landslides
• the (potentially increasing) exposure to heat and heatwaves in the city
particularly under consideration of the heat island effect
• the change of evapotranspiration and soilwater content
Hereafter, these impacts and their effects are discussed in more detail.
23
Exposure to flooding, rain water runoff and landslides
Effects for passengers
Flash floods and heavy rain during the monsoon season can in its simplest way
cause chaos on the roads, traffic jams, diversion of traffic (e.g. buses (e.g.
26.07.2006, The Hindu), trains (e.g. 23.08.2000, The Hindu) and related delays
or the failure and disruption of transportation, e.g. train cancellation (e.g.
27.10.2005; 30.10.2005, The Hindu). Particularly, if roads are blocked or
bridges submerged certain parts of Hyderabad are cut from services and
deliveries (Vikram Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Alliance). In a more severe
manner floods are causing road accidents (e.g. 07.08.08, The Hindu), train
derailing (e.g. 11.07.2005, The Hindu), injuries of passengers and fatalities.
However, impacts on the transport system do not only depend on climate
variables but also on the state of the system. Patch work repairs are often blamed
to help little, where new sewage lines would be needed. As an example, an
Exec. Engineer from GHMC blames the Water Supply and Sewage Board for
faulty sewage lines that periodically damage roads. He states that a “new sewage
line [is the] only way out”, but the board has not responded (The Hindu,
30.01.2009). A member of the Center for Economic and Social Studies (CESS)
claims that rainwater is always drained over the roads because the drainage is
poor and there is no difference between little or more heavy rain (Mr.
Ramachandraiah, CESS).
Effects on infrastructures
Infrastructures are expected to be more affected by flooding or landslides than
by (rather) graduate temperature changes (Shukla et al., 2003). Hyderabad has a
hilly orography where landslides and water can pour down the slopes after
heavy rain, potentially damaging the roads, trains or other infrastructure.
Mainly during the monsoon season and especially when rainfall occurs
consecutively enormous amounts of rainfall bring such amounts of rainfall that
the coping capacity of roads and rail tracks is exceed. Many roads in the older
city parts of Hyderabad are afterwards damaged and washed away, particularly
bitumen roads. Other built infrastructures can be damaged and washed away as
well (The Hindu, 07.08.08), train tracks are washed out. Electronics in transport
infrastructure, e.g. track switches i.e., can be affected by increasing humidity.
All of this causes higher maintenance costs.
In terms of the spatial distribution of damages throughout the city, it is said that
during the monsoon the whole city is badly affected (AFDC). Already under
normal rain conditions Panjagutta is one of the most affected junctions, because
it is badly constructed and situated in a low lying area of the city (Poonam
Pandit, Greenpeace India).
24
Exposure to heat and heatwaves in the city
Effects for passengers
Periods of heat become more complicated to bear the longer they last and night
temperatures are slowly rising as well. Then the human body is more stressed
and effects on health are more probable. During heatwaves many passengers feel
a strong discomfort to travel, the human body gets tired rapidly, and incidences
of heat stroke increase. Temperatures in closed vehicles or with no air
movement are particularly dangerous. The passengers but also the drivers, e.g.
bus drivers or rickshaw driver when they park to wait for customers, are
particularly affected (Reckien et al., 2009). People waiting for buses in the sun
with regularly no shelter that is being provided will feel the extreme heat.
Policemen might not be able to do their jobs on road crossings in the complete
sun (Dr. Sh. S. Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor). Traffic jams will increase and
roads be blocked. Delays would need to be expected for air travel when airports
have to close because of a decrease in "lift" under extremely hot air (Shukla,
2003).
Due to the expected increasing use of air conditionings (ACs) people might
loose immunity against small diseases. Further, ACs with insufficient filter
systems help to spread diseases among a large number of people (Dr. Sh.S.
Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor).
Effects on infrastructures
Under increasing temperatures asphalt roads will be softened and experience
more deformation. Concrete roads are known to "explode" or buckle. Train
tracks will warp and experience more lateral buckling. Under these conditions
there is an increased risk for trains derailing. Trains have to go slower with
likely impacts on travel time for passengers.
An increase of mechanical failures in automobiles and trucks is also likely.
Engines will heat up fast; especially the buses will face significant problems
(Dr. Sh. S. Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor).
Change of evapotranspiration and soilwater content
Effects for passengers
Heat waves are often connected to drought periods. Under drought conditions
problems with dust pollution rises. Long-lasting road works, which are frequent
on Hyderabad’s roads, cause an increase in dust and related air pollution, pose a
major health risk to the population, minimize the drivers view and rise the risk
of accidents (Deccan Chronicle; 24.01.2009).
25
On the contrary, under rather wet and rainy conditions air travel at the new
Shamshabad airport near Hyderabad is affected by foggy weather, because many
flights from and to Europe arrive or start in the morning hours. Delays for
several hours are common when take-off and landing is impossible. It is said
that these conditions are recently increasing and that it also happens in winter as
“unseasonal” rains occur nowadays (approximately in the last 10 years) (Shalini
Sharma, CCC ESCI). Further challenges might occur in future seasons, in
months when the soil moisture is high and the rain is increasing.
Effects on infrastructures
When the soil moisture content is decreasing under drought conditions, road
surfaces can scarify with likely effects for the built infrastructure on top.
Maintenance cost increase. If heavy rain events occur after drought conditions
there is an increased risk for flash floods.
The impacts on the transport sector and infrastructures are shown in Figure 2-13.
26
Figure 2-13: Climate Impacts on transport and infrastructures.
Source: own work
Mitigation and adaptation problems
There exists a variety of cross-relations between potential adaptation and
mitigation aspects in the transport sector. An obvious cross-relation is the
increased need for cooling of transport means and the related increase in energy,
(potentially) fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions. Another connection refers to the
use of public transport in general. If it is not upgraded substantially in the future
people might use it less and less, as the increase in temperatures, heat and
overcrowding make it less comfortable to travel. People underline that using the
27
buses is particularly stressful already under current conditions. A decrease in
public transport will negatively impact on Hyderabad’s CO2 emissions.
Other problems for adaptation occur due to the multitude of agencies involved in
the transport sector in Hyderabad. E.g., GHMC and HUDA are in charge of the
provision and maintenance of the road infrastructure, while the public transport
and the MMTS system is taken care of by APSRTC, a parastatal agency. No
single agency is solely responsible and accountable for traffic and transport
management. This results in overlapping functions, spatial and functional
fragmentation (MCH, 2005).
2.4.2 Impact of climate change on the energy sector in Hyderabad
The energy sector is more sensitive to changes in temperature than to a change
in precipitation and its patterns. Due to the heat island effect in urban areas,
Hyderabad will be more affected than its rural surrounding. The enormous
reduction in urban green spaces and tree cover over the last decades has already
contributed to it and will continue to do so.
Direct impacts and effects on the energy sector are expected as follows:
• Potentially reduced intra-annual water availability, although annual mean
precipitation might increase (very high uncertainty, see Lüdeke and Budde,
2009)
• Increasing seasonal temperatures and exposure to heat waves
They entail indirect impacts, such as:
• Increasing events of floods and flash floods
• Reduced energy generation capabilities
• Increased energy demand for residential and industrial cooling
These impacts are described in more detail hereafter.
Potentially reduced intra-annual water availability
Effects for the population
The problems of energy availability and distribution in Hyderabad are directly
linked to climate variables. Andhra Pradesh is heavily reliant on thermal (coal
and gas) sources of power for electricity production. According to APGENCO,
from April 2008 to March 2009 thermal power contributed to the majority of the
28
total power supply in the state (APGENCO, 2009). Given the current energy
generation patterns in Andhra Pradesh, a significant increase in energy
generation (especially during water-scarce months) would be produced by
thermal power plants running on fossil fuel. Thermal power plants hence play a
major role in Hyderabad aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite the strong reliance on thermal power plants, any shortage of water in
reservoirs is by the local media immediately perceived as a threat to energy
supply and security. E.g., the failures of Srisailam und Nagarjunasagar
hydropower stations due to insufficient water flows are considered as one of the
key causes of the electricity shortages in Hyderabad during the summer months
of 2008 (The Hindu, 15.08.2008).
The local stakeholders and the scientific community state that peak energy
demand in Hyderabad takes place in summer, particularly in the dry months
before the rainy season. The energy is increasingly consumed by water
extraction and distribution facilities as well as by industrial and residential
cooling installations. As the economic boom in Hyderabad progresses, more and
more participants enter the energy market with their electricity demands for
cooling purposes – a demand, which is not always possible to fulfil by current
infrastructure and generation capacities (Sivak, 2008). At the moment 4 energy
distribution companies operate in Hyderabad, generally meeting the demand
during the monsoon and post-monsoon months, but failing to do so in the
summer (Jawahar Reddy).
The increase in population and economic activity make power cuts a common
phenomenon in Hyderabad nowadays (e.g. The Hindu, 10.08.2008); under a
future climate people expect this situation to deteriorate drastically, although it
is still highly uncertain whether the mean annual amount of precipitation
decreases in the future for the area around Hyderabad. It is possible that annual
averages increase (Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). However, irregular patterns of
precipitation with more extreme events, potentially higher run-off and flash
floods are expected to result in proportionately lower inflow and lower water
tables in the reservoirs (Poona Pandit, Greenpeace India) impacting negatively
on hydropower supply. More power cuts are expected for the future (B Mukesh,
STP Amberpet/Hyderabad, HMWSSB). Also power rationings seem likely (V.
Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Change Alliance).
Effects on infrastructures
As with all built forms extensive rain water run-off and flash floods can cause
damages to the energy infrastructure. Heavy rains connected with strong
windstorms can damage electricity wires (Shalini Sharma, CCC ESCI; The
29
Hindu, 10.08.2008) and other electricity transmission infrastructure. Especially
during the monsoon season when flooding is common this can have lethal
impacts on the population. Broken, electrified wires are dipping in puddles,
where people get hit by high-voltage.
Extensive rain would have minor impacts on thermal power generations plants
itself, which might also be a reason why it is expected to serve future demands
more than hydropower. Kapshe et al. (2003) blame the long gestation period of
projects, high investment costs and the total system’s capacity limitation due to
natural resource constraints being responsible for the slow growth and declining
share of hydropower in India. They do not expect hydropower to increase with
further climatic change.
Exposure to heat and heatwaves
Effects for the population
The very likely increase in energy demand due to increasing population,
changing lifestyles, economic development and increasing mean as well as
extreme temperatures will all contribute to an even stronger increase in
electricity demand. With a need for more A/C for space cooling in buildings and
transportation this will be acerbated and power rationing might follow (V.
Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Alliance) particularly in summers and under
conditions of heatwaves.
The energy demand will increase further when the current agricultural practices
are pursued in the future. The agricultural practise is potentially only profitable
with a plus on water input. This will increase the energy demand further as
many farmers rely on ground water for irrigation.
As a response to power cuts many industries use generators, which increase air
and noise pollution. An increase in energy demand in general will result in
higher energy prices, probably more theft and the undersupply with energy of
the most vulnerable in the urban area.
Mitigation and adaptation problems
In India and Hyderabad too, energy production, transmission and use is not very
efficient. It is estimated that approximately 5kW of energy have to be generated
to supply the end user with 1kW (Ch.V. Rao). In these figures lies a huge
potential for both adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. Another
problem relates to theft, which is not confined to small private end-users but also
exists with big industries and firms.
30
2.4.3 Impact of climate change on water, energy and industries in Hyderabad
The complexity of the issues of water availability, increasing demand and
reduced supply, the interaction between agricultural practices and energy use (to
pump up water from aquifers) but also the interactions between water
availability and water use for energy production and other industries and their
response to climate impacts cannot be overestimated. The key impacts in
Hyderabad are generally situated in the area of supply and demand of a
particular resource, be it water, energy or goods and services for industry, and
very often have the potential to cause conflicts for the resource or suffering as
the resource is not available. The following direct impacts have been identified
for the water sector:
• Seasonally reduced water availability, although annual mean precipitation
might increase (very high uncertainty, see Lüdeke and Budde, 2009)
• Increasing seasonal temperatures and exposure to heat waves
• Increase of extreme flood events
Indirect impacts and effects on the water sector are expected as follows:
• Reduced groundwater refill
• Reduced surface water storage
• Increased water demand
• Decrease of surface and groundwater quality
Seasonally reduced water availability
Spatial and temporal changes of precipitation patterns affect quantity and quality
of surface and ground water distribution and hence their availability. The
Krishna river basin has been predicted to undergo severe drought conditions
under a GHG (Greenhouse Gas) scenario, caused by reduced levels of
precipitation, increased evapotranspiration and water yield (Gosain et al, 2006).
Reduced annual river flow coupled with increased water extraction from rivers
during the hot months turns the appropriate filling of surface reservoirs into an
almost unreachable ambition. While the amount of water provided through the
Nagarjuna Sagar irrigation project might be sufficient for the supply of urban
Hyderabad as it uses approximately 2% of irrigation canal flows under normal
conditions (van Rooijen, 2005), this might not be true in the case of agriculture
and general sustainable groundwater recharge. It is also acknowledged that the
increase in urbanisation and the construction of a metro line have very negative
impacts on the groundwater recharge in Hyderabad. This is due to decreased
permeability of the soil because of a sealing of the city’s surfaces and the
31
alteration of flow/discharge patterns (P Adi Reddy, as quoted by The Times of
India, 17.09.2008; interview with Dr. Shalini Sharma, 2.02.2009). Increased
annual temperatures widen the gap between the supply of (sooner drying-up of
surface water bodies) and demand for (human consumption) water resources in
Hyderabad (interview with Dr. Ramachandraiah, 26.01.2009).
Increasing seasonal temperatures, exposure to heat waves and increased
water demand
India is water-stressed today and is likely to be water-scarce by 2050 (Gupta and
Deshpande, 2004). The country needs 6% of the global freshwater supply to
sustain its population, agriculture and industry, but has access to only 4% of
global freshwater resources (interview with Ch.V.Rao). As a rapidly growing
city with about 10 Mio. people in 2015 (MCH, 2005) and being situated in a
semiarid zone, Hyderabad has an enormous demand for water resources. Water
is used for drinking purposes, but also in agriculture, as a resource or cooling
agent in the industrial sector. In the hot and dry summer months Hyderabad also
competes (and usually wins) against the neighbouring agricultural sector for the
available drinking water resources. While the urban poor have very little
opportunities to access safe drinking water during the months of overall water
scarcity, the more socially superior groups enjoy the boom of bottled water
supply (Zérah, 2005). Depleting local groundwater resources further increase the
dependence of Hyderabad on external sources of water. Increased groundwater
demand in various areas of Hyderabad such as Rasoolpura slum often causes the
occurrence of depression cones, which not only reduce the amount of extractable
water resources, but also influence the direction of groundwater flow
(Mondialogo, 2007).
Private water extraction companies, which operate without due control and
licensing, often further reduce the overall availability of ground water resources
(Zérah, 2005). During the heat wave of April 2007, the average groundwater
level in Hyderabad dropped from 6.66 metres below sea level (BSL) to 8.04
metres, with some areas such as Marredpally suburb experiencing a drop from
14.63 to 21.29 metres BSL (The Hindu, 14.04.2007). This phenomenon
decreases the general groundwater availability and increases the energy demand
for water extraction.
Under projected climate change there will be a higher need for water still, as all,
drinking water requirements, cooling of industrial plants, irrigation needs for
agricultural practices go up. The effects will be acerbated under conditions of
heatwaves.
32
According to a general manager of one of Hyderabad’s wastewater treatment
plants, there is a great risk of severe water supply shortage if catastrophic events
such as 1983 drought reoccur. Although the technical capabilities of water
supply from Krishna river might be sufficient to meet the demand, a significant
portion of water supply would be diverted to the rural communities living along
the pipelines and channels, as they would not allow HMWSSB to bring water to
the cities otherwise (interview with B. Mukesh, 29.01.2009). The socioeconomic arrangements of water supply for Hyderabad are therefore at great risk
during heat waves and droughts.
Increase of extreme flood events
Climate extremes are a normal feature of the Indian subcontinent. Extreme
rainfall events and total monsoon rainfall heavily impact water availability with
further consequences for energy and industry. Historically, such events were
taking place fairly regularly and did ultimately shape the life of Indian society.
Catastrophic floods go hand in hand with extreme drought events in Hyderabad
and directly impact drinking water availability, causing infrastructure damage
and water contamination by sewerage components. Climate change has the
potential to further amplify the scale and frequency of catastrophic events,
although the range and even the sign of change are very uncertain. For instance,
a study based on the Hadley centre regional climate model HadRM2 suggests
that river basins belonging to Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are
expected to experience seasonal or regular water-stressed conditions. River
basins belonging to Godavari, Brahmani and Mahanadi shall not have water
shortages but are predicted to face severe flood conditions (Gosain et al, 2006).
The summer monsoon rainfall contributes to 70-90% of the rainfall in the
Krishna and Godavari river basins, and the monsoon patterns are likely to
change too. The intensity and the number of extreme weather events are
predicted to increase, particularly in the Godavari river basin, raising issues of
flood control and wastewater capacity capabilities in urban settlements such as
Hyderabad (DEFRA, 2005). A redistribution of rainfall towards more extremes
is as disruptive as an absolute reduction of rainfall, if not more; the capacity
limits of natural and artificial storage systems on the land portion of the
hydrological cycle are frequently met (Vairavamoorthy et al., 2008).
Encroachments of water bodies lead to extreme floods in the city as the
watercourses lack the capacity to carry rainwater, thus inundating the areas in
the vicinity (Prasad and Ramachandraiah, 2007). Although the quantum of water
during the flood is far more than sufficient, it is the quality of water and the
possibility to store it, which ultimately impacts the availability of water
resources.
33
Insufficient industrial and residential wastewater treatment severely endangers
the suitability of surface and ground waters for irrigation and drinking purposes,
further reducing the pool of available water resources.
Nevertheless, the contamination of surface and groundwater with sewage during
flood events is not considered as an important issue in Indian media. The
overflows of sewerage lines and subsequent contamination of water resources
have been reported in a limited number of cases and areas, e.g. Karkhana and
Saroornagar districts during the March 2008 flood (The Hindu, 24.03.2008). The
relative lack of national media attention to the problem of non-catastrophic
floods could be explained by the fact that the most affected areas are low-lying
areas and ‘illegal colonies’ (interview with V. Venkateshwarlu, 30.01.2009),
such as Amberpet, Kawarigoal and all areas around lake Sagar (interview with
V. Aditya, 3.02.2009).
Figure 2-14 summarises the explanations made about the impacts of climate
change on the water sector and its relation to energy and industries.
34
Relevant climate dependent physical variables
Relevant climate variables
Emissions Global aerosol emissions Global
radiation balance Global
atmospheric & oceanic circulation Global greenhouse gas emissions Extreme
rainfall events Heat
waves Total
monsoon rainfall averaged Averaged
seasonal temperature
Drainage Urban heat island effect
River regulation Hyderabad aerosol emissions Hyderabad greenhouse gas emissions Flooding
Soil water content Runoff
Exposure
Freshwater supply from reservoirs Groundwater refill Water
quality
Drinking water availability Water availability for energy production Drinking water demand Water demand for energy production Increased
energy demand
Extreme
rainfall events Heat
waves Water availability for industrial production Water demand for industrial production
Increased demand for cooling/kWh Total
monsoon rainfall Averaged seasonal temperature Figure 2-14: Climate impact on water, energy, industry.
Source: own work
2.4.4 Impact of climate change on the health sector in Hyderabad
Climate variables can either have a direct or an indirect effect on the human
body; the latter, e.g., through complex biochemical or environmental processes
(Mitra et al., 2003).
We have identified the following key impacts of climate change on the health
sector:
35
Direct:
• Exposure to heat
• Exposure to flooding
• Insecure freshwater supply
Indirect:
• Public health infrastructure damages
• Increased cooling
• Air pollution
• Food poisoning
• Contamination of drinking water with bacteria or industrial waste
• Favorable conditions for other disease vectors
• Groundwater drawdown through contaminated wells
Many of these impacts are related and interlinked; some of them mutually
influence each other. In the following, we present them separately for structural
reasons, only.
The direct exposure to heat will become an increasing health risk with the
increased occurrence of heat waves. The so-called “urban heat island effect”
aggravates the situation. A dense built environment increases the temperature as
compared to surrounding rural areas (Bitan, 2003). In many Indian cities, the
urban heat island effect is increasing, especially with a changing style in
architecture and more high-rise buildings. This effect is, e.g., described by Alam
(2007) for Dhaka in Bangladesh and can be expected to apply to Hyderabad in a
similar fashion.
Dehydration and heat-related illnesses (Koppe et al., 2004), such as cardiorespiratory diseases, increase with high temperatures (Kovats and Hajat, 2008).
These illnesses often lead to an increase in short-term mortality particular during
heat waves (Mitra et al., 2003), which is a problem already in recent years. For
example in 2002, a heatwave has killed more than 1,000 people in Andhra
Pradesh, mostly laborers in smaller urban settlements and people working under
the open sky (heatisonline, 2002). Only one year later, the Government of
Andhra Pradesh (2004) announced in an official statement that the heat waves in
2003 caused the death of more than 3,000 people. Although hot summers are
common in Hyderabad, news of the last years tells about more and longer heat
waves and people’s suffering. “The temperatures are peaking much to the
discomfort of the general public” and the “temperature shoots up six to seven
36
degrees above normal [in Andhra Pradesh]” was news in 2009 (The Hindu 30
Jan and 26 Feb 2009).
A vast problem is indeed the increased health risk for daily wage earners, such
as laborers and rickshaw drivers (Kovats and Hajat, 2008), and other people that
work under the open sky. Although limited in comparison to, e.g. rural areas,
this also relates to urban farmers and people helping on the field in urban
environments. These groups are especially vulnerable, as they are not able to
react accordingly. Heat-wave alerts and official calls to stay inside or in the
shadow can often not be respected, as these people rely on their daily wage (The
Hindu, 22 April 2009). People in slums are affected badly also as they have no
air conditioners and coolers (AFDC interviewee, 2009). Most of the slums are
situated in the suburban areas where temperatures are generally a bit lower
(Bitan, 2003), but still a substantial number of people live in the numerous small
informal settlements in the inner city. Daily wage earners cannot afford to be far
away from their place of work and long commuting. With an increase in
temperatures in the future, heat related problems are very likely to increase.
On the other hand might a general rise in temperatures and more frequent heat
waves result in an increase of cooling. Dr. Sheikh from the Tarnaka Residence
Welfare Association in Hyderabad points out that colds and other respiratory
diseases have already become a typical middle class problem during summer
due to overcooled office buildings.
The second direct impact, exposure to flooding, can result in serious injuries.
Drowning is a commonly reported consequence (Mitra et al., 2003), although it
cannot be stated with certainty whether an inability in swimming or the
nescience of proper behaviour has a stronger explanation power. Already at
present conditions, strong rain results in frequent flooding of low-lying areas of
the city. In 12 of the 20 strongest precipitation events in Hyderabad (upper most
3% in the years between 2000 and 2008; 55mm rain and more) the news
reported about inundation of houses and roads. In 9 of these events lives were
claimed, either by drowning or by lightening stroke (The Hindu). Whereas
dramatic injuries can cause deaths directly, also damages to the public health
infrastructure, such as hospitals and other health care centres, and the
disturbance of ambulance services can become a health risk during flooding.
Health care itself might deteriorate when personal is missing, as do disease
control measures (DEFRA, 2005). With a potential increase in serious
precipitation events, related problems might increase as well.
Flooding can also lead to a contamination of water with chemicals, heavy
metals or other hazardous substances that were either already present in the
environment or result from damages to storage facilities (Young et al., 2004). In
37
Andhra Pradesh, the contamination of water sources with bacteria is a
consequence of poor sanitation associated with a lack of toilets, inadequate
drainage and poorly designed septic tanks. Exposure levels tend to be highest
during the initial monsoon flush, especially in flooded areas (World Bank,
2001). A problem is also the intermittence of water supply, which accelerates
bacterial cultivation and boosts the contamination of the supply infrastructure.
Another problem of intermittent supply is the resulting underpressure in pipes as
soon as the water keeps off. Then, water from outside the pipes is soaked in
through leaks carrying contaminants and other waste. The situation is
particularly severe in areas of Hyderabad where sewage flows in open ditches
close to water distribution pipes (Vairavamoorthy, 2008) and where people live
in industrial areas close to factories (Kovats and Akthar, 2008). Although there
is no particular data available for Hyderabad, a study conducted by NEERI
states that 27 to 76 per cent of drinking water samples are tested positive for
faecal coliforms under intermittent supply (NEERI, 1994). Next to the problem
with drainage infrastructure, the survival of bacterial pathogens is also related to
temperature (Kovats and Akhtar, 2008).
The consumption of contaminated water can result in diarrheal diseases, cholera
and intoxication (DEFRA, 2005) as studies from other cities in India reveal after
flooding and intermittent water supply (Mondal et al., 2001). After the Mumbai
flood in 2005, the leptospirosis cases, a bacterial disease, increased by a factor
of eight (Maskey et al., 2006). The same was reported for the floods in 2000 and
2001, this time mainly affecting children in slums (Karande et al., 2002).
A three-day incessant rain event in Hyderabad in 2006 has put health officials
on an alert for a possible outbreak of water-borne diseases (The Hindu, 6 Aug
2006). The authorities worried about the risk of water contamination and an
outbreak of large-scale health problems. As a consequence, they started a survey
in particularly vulnerable areas, tested people for their health conditions and
eventually distributed Chloroquine, Paracetamol and others in different localities
of the city. In 1996, an intermitted water supply was also suspected to have
caused a paratyphoid fever outbreak in Delhi (Yepes et al., 2000). As waterborne diseases are already one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in
developing countries as a whole (WHO S-E Asia, 2005), problems are likely to
deteriorate with more frequent flooding under future climate change.
An insecure freshwater supply can become a serious problem in mainly two
ways, the decreased water availability in itself and the related contamination
discussed above. One important problem is, e.g. the excessive drawdown of well
water and the potential mixing with industrial waste water, which in turn leads
to contaminated well water. The impact of climate change on the availability
of water is seen to be one of the most important impacts for the health of
38
populations (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Estimations by Singh (2000) imply that,
allowing for population growth, half of India’s urban population will be living
with acute water shortages by the year 2050. Staff members of ICRISAT (group
member of PhD Suhas P. Wani) noted the same for Hyderabad, saying that
health conditions are highly dependent on water quality. According to news
reports the freshwater supply is already extremely irregular during normal, nonmonsoon time in several districts in Hyderabad (The Hindu, 5 Feb09). Thus,
adding further irregularities in water availability in a future climate, this would
entail serious problems for the city. Climate change is expected to put more
stress on the water supply situation (Revi, 2008).
Air pollution can become a further increasing health problem in response to
climate change, because a proportion of the formation of certain air pollutants
depends on temperature and humidity (Satterthwaite et al., 2007). The recent
increase in new industries and motor vehicles brings along a massive
degradation of the air quality in Indian cities (Agarwal et al., 1999). With 2.2
Mio vehicles in Hyderabad and 600 vehicles more each day, the situation in
Hyderabad is similar. 60% of all air pollution is resulting from individual
vehicles (discussion with APPCB). Next to the increase in vehicle numbers,
particularly the ageing of public transport means and freight vehicles is a major
health problem, as they are emitting high levels of particulate matter (The
Hindu, 30 Jan 2009); advances in efficiency are not followed. In the near future
and under mean growth estimates in individual traffic air pollution problems
will rise unless drastic measures are taken.
Due to the geographic setting of Hyderabad the impact of air pollution is lesser
in summer and after the monsoon, whereas the impact in winter is higher,
mainly due to a temperature inversion (APPCB, 2009). More frequent
precipitation events would slightly lessen the problems with air quality in
relative terms; particulate matter can be washed out.
As mentioned in the beginning of this chapter, many of the impacts named are
interrelated. Often, the combination of different climate variables (and
sometimes particular social conditions), not a single variable alone, is
responsible for the spread of diseases and their vectors. With respect to, e.g.,
Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya, which are very climate sensitive (Dhiman,
2008), optimal climatic conditions of temperature, humidity and breeding places
of water (Gigers, 1999) are necessary to accelerate the rate of the breeding cycle
of the Anopheles (Malaria) and Aedes aegypti/albopictus (both Dengue,
Chikungunya) mosquito. Intermittent rainfalls, such as in June and July in
Hyderabad, provide perfect breeding grounds in stagnant urban water like wells,
cistern, sumps, car tires, bottles and cans (The Hindu, 4 July 2004). Official
government clinics’ state a decrease in malaria cases in Hyderabad in recent
39
years. In 2005, 367 cases were reported much in contrast to the 877 cases in
2000. In 2007 official figures decreased further and witnessed 253 cases,
whereas in 2008 incidences rose again slightly to 275 cases (Times of India, 26
Dec 2008). We have to assume that these numbers comprise only a small
fraction of the actual incidences, but other figures are unachievable (Prasad and
Ramachandraiah, 2007). The small increase in the last two years is explained
with long-time gaps of rainfall, long enough to give adequate breeding time to
the mosquitoes in stagnant water (MCH health and sanitation additional
commissioner D. Jaganadha Rao in Times of India, 2002). During those months
with long time intervals between rainfalls, the Hyderabad municipality is
running anti-larval operations in conducting house-to-house spraying of
insecticides and larvicides (The Hindu, 4 July 2004). Bhattacharya et al. (2006)
find a positive correlation of October rainfall in Andhra Pradesh with malaria
incidences in the following year, whereas other sources, such as the Times of
India (29 Jan 2009), report a constant prevalence of mosquitoes year round, at
least for some parts of the city, e.g. Old Safilguda, where open drainage systems
exist. The total annual rainfall does not seem to have an influence; flooding and
drought seem to be more influential (Bhattacharya et al., 2006).
Given that Indian cities have become major reservoirs of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever, it can be expected that the morbidity risk will
increase in the future (Bhattacharya et al., 2006). Dhiman et al. (2008) give an
in-depth analysis of potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of
malaria in India and conclude that, in general, malaria is expected to spread and
conquer new areas. Models indicate that the number of people at risk of malaria
infection in developing countries as a whole will increase by 5-15%, depending
on the model and climate change scenario (Martens et al., 1995).
A warming of the climate may also increase the risk of dengue outbreaks,
particularly in those cities and areas where a present limiting factor is exceeded
(Kovats and Hajat, 2008). Dengue cases have reached alarming levels in
Hyderabad. As many as 90 cases were reported in 2008; in 2007 57 cases were
reported. This accounts for 30% of the total dengue cases (307) in the state of
Andhra Pradesh and occurred only in this city. Interestingly, while the trend of
Dengue is going down in the state as a whole, it is going up in the city (Times of
India, 26 Dec 2008).
2.4.5 Impact of climate change on food production in Hyderabad
We have further identified the following key impacts of climate change on food
security:
40
Direct:
• Food stock destroyed
• Crops destroyed
Indirect
• Malnutrition, hunger
• Less irrigation water
• Crop diseases
The rather poor data availability makes it particularly difficult to analyze the
potential impacts of climate change on in the field of food security, e.g. as
compared to the health sector.
A direct impact of flooding events on food security represents the destruction
of the food stock itself, e.g. through water but also through drought.
Satterthwaite et al. (2007) note that for India’s economy and people, an increase
in the intensity, frequency and geographical coverage of drought are the most
serious climate-change related risks. Destroyed food crops have short- and longterm consequences. The former particularly affect small peri-urban, but also
urban farmers that directly rely on their food for reasons of subsistence or on
their income from selling the crops (Buechler and Devi, 2003). For larger, statewide flooding, with large-scale devastation of crops, the effect on food security
can be even more severe and affect the whole population. Damages to crops in
2000 and 2005 were topic in the news. In 2000 the crop loss was 1.770.000 ha,
as stated by the Chief Minister, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu (The Hindu, 26 Aug
2000).
Also the interruption of the supply chain due to infrastructural damages, e.g.
caused by inundations, can cause immediate food and drinking water shortage in
the city. This is particularly pronounced for daily-wage earners; they have
serious problems during and after heavy rain events when normal life and work
is disrupted. “For people like us no work means no food” says V. Jangaiah, a
migrant laborer (The Hindu, 8 Nov 2008).
Alarming are the longer term impacts on malnutrition and hunger. Frequent in
slum quarters nowadays, they are expected to intensify with climate change and
its impacts in the future. Gahukar (2009) assumes that the steadily increasing
number of people, particularly undernourished people, could bring the situation
to a collapse; food might be even less available in the future.
The potential changes in agricultural production in Asia, including India, were
analysed and projected by the IPCC (2001). They found that the time of the
41
cropping season as well as the growing period is affected by variability of
temperature and precipitation. Mendelsohn (2000) has calculated an agricultural
loss of $86 billion in India under a future warming of 2°C in global mean
temperature (UIUC11 climate model, allowing for carbon fertilization). And the
FAO has estimated that India will lose up to 125 million tons of cereals by 2020
(Gahukar, 2009). As a secondary effect, this would increase global food and
cereal prices enormously and will again particularly hurt the urban poor
(Satterthwaite et al., 2007). Parry et al. (2004) calculated an increase in cereal
prices until 2080 of up to three-fold (different scenario calculations).
Hyderabad’s ability to provide sufficient food to its inhabitants partly depends
on the food availability in the surrounding rural areas of Andhra Pradesh (Smith
et al., 2007). Those areas in Andhra Pradesh that are already drought-prone will
become especially vulnerable in the years to come (Lal, 2009) and the need for
irrigation increases. For example, depleting water levels of the Godavari in
combination with the failure of irrigation authorities to augment the water
supply has recently upset the farmers. They are worried that newly planted crops
fall dry if the water supply stops for more than a week (Times of India, 23 Jan
09). Ch.V. Rao of the Energy Conservation Commission sets a note of caution to
the current cultivation practices when he remarks in an interview that the
production of 1 kg of rice needs 2000 litres of water. Without irrigation, new
water harvesting systems or alternatives to, e.g., groundnuts and other crops, dry
land farmers in Andhra Pradesh are highly vulnerable to climate change (Lal,
2009).
Another secondary effect is the potential increase in crop diseases, which is
likely when the plants level of heat-tolerance is exceeded. The IPCC (2001)
notes that a “damage from diseases may be more serious because heat-stress
conditions will weaken the disease-resistance of host-plants and provide
pathogenic bacteria with more favorable growth conditions”. As an answer, new
seeds and varieties need to be developed to suit the future weather conditions,
says environmental scientist R. Pachauri in a public lecture in Hyderabad (The
Hindu, 3 Feb 2009).
Figure 2-15 summarizes the impacts of climate change on health and food
production.
42
relevant climate dependent physical variables
global
radiation
balance
relevant climate variables
emissions
global
aerosol
emissions
global
atmospheric
& oceanic
circulation
global
greenhouse
gas emissions
extreme
rainfall
events
total
monsoon
rainfall
heat
waves
urban heat
island effect
drainage
soilwater
content
river
regulation
Hyderabad
aerosol
emissions
Hyderabad
greenhouse gas
emissions
Direct exposure effect
●
Contamination of
drinking water w/
bacteria/industrial
waste
●
Crops destroyed
●
Food stock destroyed
●
Contamination of
irrigation water
●
Public health
infrastructure damaged
●
flooding
freshwater
supply from
reservoirs
exposure
Direct
exposure
● Occupational
health effect
●
HEALTH effects
● Diseases related to water contamination
(diarrhoea, cholera, respiratory infection)
● Increase of vector-borne diseases
(Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya)
● Long-term health problem due to exposure
to chemical/microbiological/heavy metal
load in water/food
● Health security (infrastructure damaged)
● Injuries/drowning
● Heat shock/ short-term mortality increase
● Well-being disturbed during heat
averaged
seasonal
temperature
groundwater
refill
Insecure
freshwater
supply
● Rainfed
agriculture:
aridity, crop
diseases
●
● Wells
contaminated
(groundwater
draw-down)
● Heat-tolerance
of crop varieties
exceeded
● Increased
cooling demand
● Favourable conditions for disease
vectors (breeding, transmission
window)
.
FOOD security
Shorter growing season
Less availability of food
● Higher prices
●
Insecure drinking water
●
Decreased food quality
●
●
Figure 2-15: Climate impacts, health and food production.
Source: own work
43
2.4.6 Discussion, limitation and further research needs
There are shortcomings with respect to some of the methods of analysis used
and their ability to profoundly contribute to the study. Limitations have mainly
been encountered with the online analysis of the newspaper The Hindu and the
interviews.
The number of news for Hyderabad is remarkably smaller in the earlier issues of
The Hindu archive. Thus, it is assumed that only a part of the print version was
made available to online readers at that time. A special section for the city is
only available from 7 Jan 2004 onwards, before that date a Southern States
section included news on Hyderabad. Therefore, the time period of news easily
accessible for analysis was limited.
News can be used as a source of information on facts as well as a source of
knowledge about how topics are discussed. Particularly for the former issue the
newspaper analysis is important. With it, we want to find out what the very
impacts of climatic events in Hyderabad are. News in an archive reflects the
particular situation on and shortly after the day of a specific event. In contrast,
statements made by interviewees about a past event are always a recall of
memories and influenced by personal feelings and oblivion. However, it has to
be kept in mind that news often represent political opinions and might be biased
or hold neglects. The Indian press is generally considered to be free and
pluralist, but it is clearly taking up the principles of a market-driven economy in
recent days, which results in lower journalistic standard (Sonwalkar, 2002).
News has therefore to be taken with caution.
Another shortcoming of the news analysis is the limitation to English language
newspapers, which are written for and read by a small and (potentially) nonrepresentative part of the population, the middle and upper class households.
The news of one Indian newspaper published in English is still addressing a
narrow part of readership and a specific range of social classes. It can therefore
only reflect a limited prospect. Anyhow, English newspapers had already the
highest daily-to-people ratio in 1987 (Jeffrey, 1987) and “reflect the opinions of
the most powerful segments of the Indian population: the political, intellectual
and business elite” (Haque and Narag, 1983). Attempts are made to get
newspaper articles translated from Hindi or the local Urdu language (joint work
with WP2.1).
After having gained a comprehensive picture of the impacts of rain, we also
want to include news after heat events, and use other sources of information
(e.g. in situ, by stakeholders and interviewees) to still deepen our knowledge to
44
the impacts of climate on transport, built infrastructures, energy, health, food
security and water.
Other shortcomings relate to the interviews with local stakeholders, although
they significantly enhanced our understanding of the situation in Hyderabad
obtained from newspaper analysis. Due to time and organisational constraints,
only 14 stakeholder interviews were conducted. Although the best effort has
been made to capture the broadest spectre of interests, the selection of the
interviewees cannot be considered as representative and further work will be
needed to fill the gaps, particularly in obtaining expert opinion from local
practitioners.
A significant limitation of the stakeholder interview method in assessing climate
change impacts in Hyderabad is the difference in approaches to the definition of
impacts between the interviewers and stakeholders as well as among
stakeholders themselves. The local actors find it sometimes difficult to place the
impacts of climate change into a broader framework of sustainable urban
development, while predominantly focusing on rather localised events such as
droughts and floods, without clearly distinguishing between climate-caused
impacts or those produced by infrastructure failures. Further interviews will take
this observation into account, particularly by amending the questionnaire design
and stakeholder selection.
As one of the next project steps we expect to enhance our understanding of
climate change impacts in Hyderabad through identification of impact paths for
various social groups and classes. While one may assume that no part of the
population will be excluded from the impacts, the magnitude and specific
character will be very different for, e.g., slum dwellers and IT professionals.
This will be thoroughly investigated.
Last but not least, we want to note that the climate change components and its
impacts on Hyderabad are not isolated from each other but should be assessed
together and as an integrated and complex mechanism. Using already identified
impacts within various sectors, further work will focus on the development of
interconnections and cause-effect relationships between the sectors and their
components. The obtained knowledge will then be used to build quantitative and
qualitative components of a climate change impact model for Hyderabad and to
ultimately design a viable Sustainable Development Framework for this vibrant
and challenging megacity.
45
2.5 Summary to the impacts and statistical reprocessing of climate change
news
As first observation we note that the total number of news after a certain rain
event does not highly correlated with rain intensity (Appendix III), although a
slight trend exists. However, there was one outlier that received a lot of news,
although, according to the weather records, this event was not the highest.
Furthermore, the total number of online news to a certain precipitation event is
increasing over time, which means that also the news with interest to our survey
increase over time. Whether this is a trend in reporting about events or a trend in
the severity of the event itself can, for the moment, not be stated with certainty.
As mentioned in the methods section, 20 precipitation events and their according
news in Hyderabad were analyzed in total (Appendix III). The major topic, apart
from generally talking about the weather and the rain, is the traffic and the
problems that arise with its disturbance. In 15 out of the 20 events problems
with the traffic flow in the city are mentioned in the news. In 12 events the
inundation of houses and roads, often in low-lying areas, are noted. In 11 events,
the state of reservoirs and their inflow was discussed. In about half of the events,
drains and problems with them is a topic. Also that lives had been claimed and
serious injuries have happened as well as the fact that emergency cells have
been started to operate and control rooms have been opened is noted likewise.
The latter often include a list with telephone numbers. Power failure, destroyed
roads and damaged or collapsed houses have been reported in one third of the
events. In 7 events the first reaction of the news to the rain was positive. Further,
the disturbance of normal life, evacuations and relief camps as well as relief
measures, problems with the water supply, disturbance of railway connections or
tracks and plans about modernization measures (mainly of water use) are a topic
in a quarter of the events. Looking at the health sector, also disease prevention
and a higher alert was discussed during 5 events. In two of these cases
chlorination of water was mentioned. A lack of preparedness or inadequate crisis
management and coordination was criticized less frequent.
The fact that impacts on health and food are less discussed than problems with
infrastructure brings us back to the question whom the news are written for.
Slum dwellers that suffer from these problems will not read the news. The
reader is more interested in his or her problems, which, for example, are traffic
problems. There is the assumption that topics are discussed differently in the
local newspaper and the local language. A further analysis of the news is
planned and will entail a deeper insight into the subject matter.
Table 2-5 summarises the information given in former chapters along the
Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, which was developed by
EEA, UNEP and FOEN and adapted to our approach.
46
Table 2-5: Summary to the impacts of climate change on the urban system in Hyderabad
Driver
Pressure
State
Impact
Response
Extreme
Drainage
Flooding
Contamination of water
Residential and public
rainfall
infrastructure development
resources with bacteria/
River regulation
events
industrial waste
Changes in land use
Destruction of crops and food
stocks
policies
Traffic route changes
Infrastructure damage
Traffic interruption
Injuries / drowning
Heat waves
Urban heat island
effect
Exposure to
high
temperatures
Increased heat stress and
mortality
Increased water demand
Increased energy demand
Increased cooling demand
for cooling, water
Spreading of diseases through extraction and
transportation
A/C
Drop in agricultural
production
Drop in energy generation
Reduced groundwater
recharge
Reduced drinking water
availability
47
Infrastructure damage
Reduced transport efficiency
Total
monsoon
rainfall
Runoff
Freshwater
Soil water content supply from
reservoirs
Groundwater
refill
Insecure freshwater supply
Need for long distance water
transport
Reduced groundwater
recharge
Development of
alternative water supply
routes (long distance water
transport, development of
additional infrastructure)
Variability in agricultural
production
Reduced drinking water
availability
Intermittent water supply
Averaged
seasonal
temperature
Soil water content Groundwater
refill
Favourable conditions for
disease vectors and food
poisoning
Distribution of medicines
Increased energy demand
for cooling and water
extraction
Increased cooling demand for
public buildings and transport Development of additional
Reduced water availability for water supply infrastructure
drinking and irrigation
Changes in land use
purposes
patterns
Contamination of wells
48
Drop in energy generation
Drop in agricultural
production
Source: own work
49
50
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Management, Ahmedabad; Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur)
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Oxford
University
Press,
New
Delhi,
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Acharyulu, A.V.R. and Mathew, A. (2006) Food Supply Chains and their
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Bitan, A. (2003) The urban heat island – its negative impact on human comfort
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57
Table of Contents
Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad .............. 2
1 Outline, Aims of the task, Deliverable1 PIK: WP1 ....................................... 4
2 Introduction .................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Climate Change in India .......................................................................... 4
2.2 Introduction to Hyderabad and its urban subsystems.............................. 8
2.2.1 Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh/ India) ................................................. 8
2.2.2 State of the transport sector in Hyderabad: supply and demand....... 9
2.2.3 State of the water sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
12
2.2.4 State of the energy sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand,
(in)security .................................................................................................... 14
2.2.5 State of the health sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand,
(in)security .................................................................................................... 15
2.2.6 State of the food sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security
17
2.3 Methods ................................................................................................. 20
2.3.1 Literature ......................................................................................... 21
2.3.2 Indian News..................................................................................... 21
2.3.3 Interviews ........................................................................................ 22
2.4 Results ................................................................................................... 22
2.4.1 Impacts of climate change on the transport sector in Hyderabad ... 23
2.4.2 Impact of climate change on the energy sector in Hyderabad ........ 28
2.4.3 Impact of climate change on water, energy and industries in
Hyderabad..................................................................................................... 31
2.4.4 Impact of climate change on the health sector in Hyderabad ......... 35
2.4.5 Impact of climate change on food production in Hyderabad .......... 40
2.4.6 Discussion, limitation and further research needs .......................... 44
2.5 Summary to the impacts and statistical reprocessing of climate change
news 46
2.6 List of References .................................................................................. 50
Table of Contents ................................................................................................ 57
2.7 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................. 58
2.8 List of Tables ......................................................................................... 59
2.9 List of Figures ........................................................................................ 60
2.10
List of Appendices .......................................................................... 61
1 Appendix I .................................................................................................... 62
2 Appendix II ................................................................................................... 64
3 Appendix III ................................................................................................. 66
58
2.7 List of Abbreviations
AC
AFDC
AFPRO
APGENCO
APPCB
APSRTC
BSL
CATHY
CCC ESCI
CDIAC
CESS
CNG
DEFRA
EEA
FAO
FOEN
GHG
GHMC
HMWSSB
HUA
HUDA
ICRISAT
MCH
MMTS
NEERI
NERI
PM
UNEP
WHO
Air conditioning
Addagutta Founder’s & Development Committee,
Hyderabad
Action for Food Production, India
Andhra Pradesh Power Generation Corporation Limited
Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board
Andhra Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation
below sea level
Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad
Climate Change Centre, Engineering staff College of India
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Center for Economic and Social Studies, India
Compressed Natural Gas
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
European Environment Agency
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (German: BAFU)
Greenhouse Gas
Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation
Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board
Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration
Hyderabad Urban Development Authority
International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid
Tropics
Municipal Corporation for Hyderabad
Multi-Modal Transport System
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute,
India
National Environment Research Institute, Denmark
Prime Minister
United Nations Environment Programme
World Health Organization
59
2.8 List of Tables
Table 2-1: External water supply sources for Hyderabad ................................... 12
Table 2-2: Renewable energy potential and achievements in India ................... 15
Table 2-3: Basic infrastructure in Slums ............................................................. 17
Table 2-4: Per capita consumption expenditure in urban areas .......................... 18
Table 2-5: Summary to the impacts of climate change on the urban system in
Hyderabad ........................................................................................................... 47
60
2.9 List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Carbon Emissions in USA, EU, China and India, 2005 and 2030..... 5
Figure 2-2: Total CO2 Emissions by country, in 2000 ......................................... 6
Figure 2-3: Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 with and without
mitigation along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of
5.5°C; vulnerability with a static representation of current adaptive capacity ..... 6
Figure 2-4: Estimated death attributed to climate change in the year 2000
compared to baseline climate 1961-1990, by subregion ....................................... 7
Figure 2-5: Sale of cars and two-wheelers, 1993-2001 (in thousand) .................. 9
Figure 2-6: Percentage Growth in Population and Vehicles (1981-2001) in
selected metro cities ............................................................................................ 10
Figure 2-7: Share of two-wheelers in total registered vehicles, 31 March 2003 10
Figure 2-8: Projected mode share of vehicular trips per day .............................. 11
Figure 2-9: Food consumption pattern in the peri-urban Uppal area.................. 19
Figure 2-10: Proportion of crops grown in Hyderabad urban area ..................... 19
Figure 2-11: Integrated Assessment framework for the local and regional level20
Figure 2-12: Daily precipitation records in Begumpet/Hyderabad..................... 22
Figure 2-13: Climate Impacts on transport and infrastructures. ......................... 27
Figure 2-14: Climate impact on water, energy, industry. ................................... 35
Figure 2-15: Climate impacts, health and food production. ............................... 43
61
2.10 List of Appendices
Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad .............. 2 1 Appendix I .................................................................................................... 62 2 Appendix II ................................................................................................... 64 3 Appendix III ................................................................................................. 66 62
1 Appendix I
Interview Guideline
Organizational background:
Could you please give us a short overview of the work your organization is
doing (major tasks, aims and objectives, institutional criteria, partners, for whom
you work)? Please tell us, which (regulatory-) instruments you have at hand
undertaking your work, e.g. like information campaigns, and/or education?
Introduction of PIK (Interviewer) and short description of the project
Introduction to the subject climate change:
What do you know about climate change? What do you think are the major
causes of climate change (anthropogenic)? On which sources/media do you base
your knowledge with respect to climate change? If you think climate change is
man made, who are the main contributors?
Impacts
What are the most important impacts and consequences for Hyderabad, e.g. with
respect to the following sectoral aspects: Transport systems, Water management
and supply, Health, Electricity generation and supply, Food supply, settlements
and built urban environment?
Why? Where/which areas in the city will be most affected/most vulnerable. Who
is most affected/most vulnerable (the middle (8.000 bis 38.000 Rs) and upper
class (38.000 Rs), the poor (> 8.000 Rs)? Why?
How about your organization? Will it be affected, too? If yes, why and how?
Lifestyle:
Are there trends and lifestyles in the city that are particularly alarming with
respect to the causes of climate change? If yes, please explain why and how?
Reduction of the magnitude of climate change (mitigation)?
What could be done? Who is responsible to act? How about your organization?
What is your organization currently doing? What could your organization do?
Are there any future plans from side of your organization to reduce the
emissions of carbon dioxide and limit climate change? (material available?)
How do you think about current measures and strategies for mitigation? Do you
think they are sufficient? What problems and obstacles appear implementing
mitigation measures (conflicting interests, administrative problems, lack of
63
funds, knowledge, information, competence)? What has to be done to avoid such
problems and obstacles?
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change:
What could be done? Who is responsible to act? How about your organization?
What is your organization currently doing? What could your organization do?
Are there future plans from side of your organization to conduct projects or
measures of adaptation? (material available?)
How do you think about current measures and strategies for adaptation? Do you
think they are sufficient? What problems and obstacles appear with respect to
measures and strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change (conflicting
interests, administrative problems, lack of funds, knowledge, information,
competence)? What has to be done to avoid such problems and obstacles?
Link between adaptation and mitigation
Have you ever heard of the „Hyderabad City Development Plan“ and what do
you think about it. Do you think it is an adequate answer to the problems of the
city especially with respect to mitigation and adaptation? Why?
What do you think about the relation between adaptation and mitigation? Which
approach is more important for the city of Hyderabad?
[For the interviewees: It should follow a short reflection on the interview
afterwards to check possible inconsistencies and to evaluate the quality of the
interview. For instance – it should be discussed shortly, whether the interviewee
has understood the problem of the discussion, and whether he gave contradictory
explanations?]
64
2
Appendix II
Interviewee list
27.01.09
Where: Hyderabad/at Mr C.V. Rao’s home
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf
(PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK), Kai Rommel (RESS)
Meeting with: Er. Ch. Venkateswara Rao (Energy Conservation Mission, The
Institutions of Engineers), Capt. J. Rama Rao (Energy Conservation Mission,
The Institutions of Engineers)
29.01.09
Where: Hyderabad/STP Amberpet
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK)
Meeting with: Mr. B. Mukesh (General manager, Sewage Treatment Plant (STP)
Amberpet/Hyderabad)
Where: Hyderabad/Greenpeace Office, Panjagutta
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK)
Meeting with: Ms. Poonam Pandit (Greenpeace)
30.01.09
Where: Hyderabad/The Hindu offices
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf
(PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK)
Meeting with: Mr. V. Venkateshwarlu (Editor of the Environment-‘section’ in
the newspaper “The Hindu”, Dy. Chief of Bureau)
Where: Hyderabad/Café Minerva
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf
(PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK)
Meeting with: Raghavendra & Rajitha (Hyderabad Unplug, not registered =
not yet an NGO)
31.01.09
Where: Hyderabad/Tarnaka
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Georg Kern (PTV), Christian Kimmich (RESS),
Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK), Tanja Schäfer (PTV)
Meeting with: Mr. Dr. Rao Chelikani (Head of Residential Welfare Association
(RWA) Tarnaka) and other members of RWA
65
02.02.09
Where: Hyderabad/ESCI
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK)
Meeting with: Dr. Shalini Sharma, Convener – Center for Climate Change,
Engineering Staff College of India (ESCI)
03.02.09
Where: Hyderabad/SpringsInn
Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK)
Meeting with: Dr. Sherifuddin Sheriff Sheikh (General Doctor, Tarnaka)
Where: Hyderabad/Chacha Nehru Park, Banjara Hills
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK),
Christian Kimmich (RESS)
Meeting with: Mr. Vikram Aditya (Hyderabad Climate Alliance)
04.02.09
Where: Hyderabad/SpringsInn
Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK)
Meeting with: Mrs. Kanthimathi Kannan (The Right to Walk Foundation)
Where: Hyderabad/ Eenadu newspaper
Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK)
Meeting with: Mr. N. Rahul Kumar (Associate Editor at the Eenadu daily
newspaper)
Where: Hyderabad/Office of Forum for a better Hyderabad within the premises
of Oxford Grammar School, Himayat Nagar
Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS)
Meeting with: Mr. Vedakumar (Forum for a better Hyderabad)
05.02.09
Where: Hyderabad/Addagutta at the office of the Addagutta Founder’s &
Development Committee
Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK)
Meeting with: Mr. Krem Kumar G. Kali (Owner of Kali Builders and
Developers)
Where: Hyderabad/Addagutta at the office of the Addagutta Founder’s &
Development Committee
Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK)
Meeting with: Mr. S. Yadgiri (Addagutta Founder’s & Development
Committee)
66
3 Appendix III
News list
date
during
monsoon
(June-Sept)
no news
mm
weather
reservoirs
(inflow,
Hussainsaga
r)
drains
inundation
(houses/
roads)
traffic
08.08.08
110
38
y
x
x
26.07.06
47+111
9
y
x
x
x
x
injuries / lifes
claimed
x
x
x
10.06.01
115
2
y
x
23.08.00
73+214
15
y
x
x
09.09.07
58+51
3
y
24.08.07
68
2
y
15.09.06
86
5
y
04.08.06
96
14
y
x
x
x
x
x
x
28.10.05
78
10
n
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
15.07.05
62
11
y
x
x
x
x
x
x
08.07.05
61+82
13
y
x
x
x
x
x
x
04.09.04
83
2
y
x
x
x
x
x
01.07.04
55
2
y
x
x
x
20.10.03
59+63
2
y
05.07.03
67
1
y
x
x
09.08.01
86
1
y
03.06.01
70
0
y
30.06.00
62
3
y
x
x
x
11.06.00
76
2
y
x
x
x
x
x
x
25.02.00
76
0
n
15
15
12
11
10
9
houses
power failure damaged/
/ power use collapsed
roads
destroyed
date
08.08.08
x
26.07.06
x
x
x
normal life
(shopping,
election)
positive
reaction
x
x
moderisation / water
water supply use plans
evacua-tion /
relief camp railway
x
x
x
x
10.06.01
23.08.00
x
x
09.09.07
x
x
04.08.06
x
x
28.10.05
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
24.08.07
15.09.06
x
15.07.05
08.07.05
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
04.09.04
x
x
01.07.04
20.10.03
x
05.07.03
09.08.01
x
x
x
03.06.01
30.06.00
x
x
x
11.06.00
25.02.00
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
67
lack of
preparedness /bad
overall
situation (of
roads)
date
crisis
management coordination
inade-quate
08.08.08
x
26.07.06
x
disease
alerted /
preventing
disease
visit by
politicians (or agricul-ture / remember
not)
crop damage old event
x
x
x
x
x
x
chlorina-tion
of water
/chlorine
tablet distribution
rumours
politi-cising
flood
x
x
10.06.01
23.08.00
x
09.09.07
x
x
x
x
x
x
24.08.07
15.09.06
04.08.06
x
x
28.10.05
x
x
15.07.05
x
x
x
08.07.05
x
x
x
x
4
3
3
x
04.09.04
01.07.04
20.10.03
05.07.03
09.08.01
03.06.01
30.06.00
11.06.00
25.02.00
4
prepare for
evacuation
date
4
compare to
Mumbai
08.08.08
4
ground-water
recharge
lake flooded religion
fly swarms
3
national
news
2
chemical
explosion
2
state aid
x
26.07.06
x
10.06.01
x
x
23.08.00
x
x
x
1
1
1
09.09.07
24.08.07
15.09.06
x
04.08.06
x
28.10.05
15.07.05
08.07.05
x
x
1
1
04.09.04
01.07.04
20.10.03
05.07.03
09.08.01
03.06.01
30.06.00
11.06.00
25.02.00
2
2
1
1
68
daily wage
telecommuni new housing earners in
cation
subsidy
trouble
date
08.08.08
benefit to
flooding
hydro-power prevented
x
x
x
1
1
1
26.07.06
10.06.01
23.08.00
x
x
1
1
09.09.07
24.08.07
15.09.06
04.08.06
28.10.05
15.07.05
08.07.05
04.09.04
01.07.04
20.10.03
05.07.03
09.08.01
03.06.01
30.06.00
11.06.00
25.02.00