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Oil, Water, and Climate: An Introduction
Today’s oil and gas are at record prices, and yet global energy demand is
increasing because of population and economic development pressures.
Climate change, resulting in large part from the burning of fossil fuels, is
exacerbating the impact of the accelerated exploitation of our natural
resources. Therefore, anxieties over energy, water, and climate security are at
an all-time high. Global action is needed now to address this set of urgent
challenges and to avoid putting the future of our civilization at risk. This book
examines the powerful interconnections that link energy, water, climate, and
population, exploring viable options in addressing these issues collectively.
Difficult political decisions and major reforms in resource governance, policies,
market forces, and use are needed, and this book provides excellent
introductory material to enable readers to begin to understand and address
these problems.
CATHERINE GAUTIER, Doctorat d’Etat en physique option Météorologie,
Université Paris VI, has been professor of geography at the University of
California, Santa Barbara, since 1990. Gautier is the former director and
principal investigator at the Institute of Computational Earth System Science
and current head of the Earth Space Research Group at the University of
California, Santa Barbara.
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Oil, Water, and
Climate: An
Introduction
Catherine Gautier
University of California, Santa Barbara
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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521882613
© Catherine Gautier 2008
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2008
ISBN-13 978-0-511-39830-8
eBook (EBL)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-88261-3
hardback
ISBN-13 978-0-521-70919-4
paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls
for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
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To my daughters, Kristen and Julie; my niece, Pascale;
my nephews; and all my students and their generation.
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Contents
Foreword xvii
Introduction 1
1 Overview 4
Oil, Water, Climate, and Population: An Interactive System of
Immense Complexity 4
Coupled Unsustainable Use of Energy and Water Resources 5
Role of Population and Economic Development in Oil and Water Use 5
Effects of Energy Demand and Use on Global Warming 6
Climate Change Can Exacerbate Water Scarcity 7
Oil and Water Resource Issues Share Many Features 7
Exhaustion of Easily Accessible Resources 7
Realization of Finiteness of Resources and New Strategies 8
Value of Efficiency Improvement 8
Oil and Water Security Concerns 9
Poor Management of Oil and Water Resources 9
Aging Infrastructure and Magnitude of the Needed Investments 10
Urgency and Window of Opportunity 10
Major Differences in Oil and Water Resources Issues 11
Strong Leadership Needed 12
2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Global Warming, and Water
Resources 14
Introduction 14
Carbon Dioxide Emissions 15
Increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere due to
Human Activities 16
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Contents
Earth’s CO2 Concentration and Temperature 19
Understanding the Present by Looking at the Past 19
Relationship between Past CO2 Concentration and Temperature 19
Earth Temperature Observations: Global Warming 20
Temperature: Observations and Proxy Data 20
Understanding Earth’s Temperature Maintenance and Change 22
Earth Radiation Budget and Temperature 22
Increased Greenhouse Effect 24
Feedbacks 24
Earth’s Climate 26
Role of the Ocean on Climate 26
Deep Ocean Circulation and Climate 27
Main Climate Effects of Global Warming 28
Snow, Ice Extent, Oceanic Heat Content, and Sea Level 28
Impact on Water Cycle, Precipitation, El Niño, and Winds 30
Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions 31
Future Climate: Climate Models 31
Predicted Impacts on Water Resources 33
Conclusion 35
3 Population, Environmental Impacts, and Climate Change 36
Introduction 36
Current Population Projections and Characteristics of
Future Population 37
Factors Influencing Population Predictions 40
Fertility 42
Mortality 43
Migration 44
Tools for Analyzing Demographic Changes 44
Demographic Transition Model 44
Population Pyramid 45
Uncertainty of Demographic Projections 45
Geographic and Age Distribution of Population 46
Population Concentration in Urban Areas 46
Population Concentration in Coastal Regions 47
An Aging Population 50
Development, Global Energy Use, and Demography 51
Population, Water, and Climate Change 51
Population Growth, Resources Use, and Vulnerability to
Climate Change 52
Per Capita Emissions Trends 53
Other Human Impacts on the Global Carbon Balance and
Greenhouse Gases 55
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