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Modeling how the planning horizon, risk perception and behavioral changes influence
epidemic dynamics
Luis G. Nardin, Craig R. Miller, Benjamin J. Ridenhour, Stephen M. Krone, Bert O.
Baumgaertner
Center for Modeling Complex Interactions, University of Idaho
Background and Objective
Human behavior contributes to the spread of infectious diseases. However, there is no
comprehensive understanding of how behavioral changes shape such dynamics. We aim to
understand how individuals’ planning horizon and risk perception influences their behavior, and
how this in turn impacts epidemic dynamics.
Methods
We develop an epidemiological agent-based model, SPIR, in which agents decide to adopt
susceptible or prophylactic behavior by maximizing their expected utility. Agents consider the
time they expect to spend in each state constrained by the planning horizon, the payoff for being
in each state, the disease’s prevalence, and the protection efficacy of the prophylactic behavior.
Results
Agents never adopt the prophylactic behavior for low protection efficacy. Increasing the planning
horizon or risk perception reduces the level of disease’s prevalence necessary for agents to
adopt the prophylactic behavior. The adoption of this behavior reduces the peak size while
prolonging the epidemic and can generate secondary waves of infection. This dampening effect
is made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency.
Discussion and Conclusions
The impacts of longer planning horizons and elevated risk perception are not linear. Small
increases result in higher adoption of the prophylactic behavior and reduced peak prevalence.
Greater increases, however, have the opposite effect: no adoption of prophylactic behavior and
increased peak prevalence.
Grant Support: Research reported in this work was supported by the National Institute of
General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number
P20GM104420. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily
represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.