Download innovative approaches to measuring advertising effectiveness

INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO MEASURING ADVERTISING
EFFECTIVENESS
Welcoming Remarks
Jerry (Yoram) Wind, The Lauder Professor and Professor of Marketing, joined The Wharton School
faculty in 1967 with a doctorate from Stanford University. From 1995 to 1997, he led the development
of the Wharton globalization strategy. Dr. Wind led the reinvention of the Wharton MBA curriculum
(1991-93) and the creation of the Wharton Executive MBA Program (1974). He was founding director
of the Joseph H. Lauder Institute (1983-1988) and the Wharton International Forum (1987). He has
served in editorial positions for many top marketing journals, and published over 250 papers and
articles and over 20 books. He has consulted with more than 100 companies, and provided expert
testimony in many intellectual property and antitrust cases. He is a member of the advisory boards for
various entrepreneurial ventures, Board member of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Trustee of the
Philadelphia Museum of Art and Co-Chair of its Digital Age Committee. Dr. Wind has received
numerous awards, including the four major marketing awards: The Buck Weaver Award (2007), The
Charles Coolidge Parlin Award (1985), AMA/Irwin Distinguished Educator Award (1993), the Paul D.
Converse Award (1996). He was recently selected as one of the 10 Legends in Marketing, with eight
volumes of his writing to be anthologized by Sage. His current research focuses on the Network
Challenge; reinventing advertising; creativity and innovation; and challenging one’s mental models.
Catharine Findiesen Hays is the founding Director of the Future of Advertising Program at the
Wharton School. The program’s mission is to bridge academic rigor and real world relevance as a
catalyst for deeper insights, bolder innovation and broader positive impact of advertising. Her
professional passion lies in the emerging potential, if not imperative, for positive social impact of
advertising in the digital age of empowered consumers. Previously, Catharine held numerous
pioneering positions during a 15-year career in B2B marketing and sales at AT&T. She earned an
MBA in marketing from the Wharton School, as a Lauder Institute Fellow, an MA in International
Studies, University of Pennsylvania, a BS in Foreign Service, Georgetown University and an AA,
Franklin College, Lugano, Switzerland.
Elea McDonnell Feit, the Executive Director at the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative, has spent
most of her career bridging the gap between academics and practice. She worked for more than 7
years as a research scientist at General Motors before entering the doctoral program in Marketing at
the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. After completing her PhD, she was Vice President
and Methodologist at The Modellers, where she led efforts to develop and commercialize new analytics
methods and coordinated the company’s Academic Advisory Board. In her role as Executive Director of
the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative, she leads academic-industry research programs ensuring
that WCAI-sponsored research projects have both rigor and relevance. Dr. Feit’s own research focuses
on developing new methods for leveraging customer data to make better product design and
advertising decisions, particularly when data is incomplete, unmatched or aggregated. She also enjoys
making quantitative methods accessible to a broad audience and has developed a Wharton course in
“Experiments for Business Decision Making” (MKTG269/669) as well as a tutorial in discrete choice
modeling for practitioners. In addition to a PhD in Marketing, she holds a MS in Industrial
Engineering from Lehigh University and a BA in Mathematics from University of Pennsylvania.
Eric T. Bradlow is currently Vice-Dean and Director, Wharton Doctoral Programs, The K.P. Chao
Professor, Professor of Marketing, Statistics, and Education and Co-Director of the Wharton Customer
Analytics Initiative at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He earned a Bachelor of
Science in Economics from The Wharton School in 1988, an A.M. in Mathematical Statistics in 1990
and a Ph.D. in Mathematical Statistics in 1994 from Harvard University. He joined the Wharton
faculty in 1996. From 2008- 2011, Eric was Editor-in-Chief of Marketing Science, the premier
academic journal in Marketing. He was recently named one of eight inaugural University of
Pennsylvania Fellows, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, a Fellow of the American
Education Research Association, a Fellow of the Wharton Risk Center, a Senior Fellow of the Leonard
Davis Institute for Health Economics, is past chair of the American Statistical Association Section on
Statistics in Marketing, is a statistical Fellow of Bell Labs, and was previously named DuPont
Corporation’s best young researcher. His academic research interests include Bayesian modeling,
statistical computing, and developing new methodology for unique data structures with application to
business problems, education and psychometrics and health outcomes. He has won research awards in
Marketing, Statistics, Psychology, Education and Medicine.
Thomas S. Robertson is Dean and Reliance Professor of Management and Private Enterprise at the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. As a member of the standing faculty at Penn until
1994, he served as Chair of the Marketing Department and Associate Dean for Executive Education. In
2007, he returned to Wharton as Dean. Prior to this appointment, Tom was Chair of International
Strategy at Emory University, and founding director of Emory's Institute for Developing Nations, a
joint-venture research initiative with the Carter Center and President Jimmy Carter. During his time
away from Penn, he also had extraordinarily successful tenures as Dean of Emory’s Goizueta Business
School and Deputy Dean of the London Business School. Tom is an expert in marketing strategy and
competitive behavior, the diffusion of innovation, and consumer behavior. He is the author, co-author,
or editor of a dozen books, and close to 100 scholarly articles and book chapters.
Panel One: Field Experiments
Moderator
John Howard, Senior Vice President at APT, has over ten years of experience helping large-scale
organizations achieve data-driven insights that drive enhanced decision-making. Mr. Howard has
worked with several dozen companies across industries including retail, restaurant, financial services,
hospitality and manufacturing. He has led engagements to improve Fortune 500 companies’ returns
from initiatives including marketing programs, pricing changes, product / merchandising / service
enhancements, operational optimizations, and capital investments. He has also managed efforts to
optimize market-level location planning and individual site selection for large-scale distribution
networks. Mr. Howard has led projects in North America and Europe. Prior to joining APT, Mr. Howard
worked as a strategy consultant at Oliver Wyman (formerly Mercer Management Consulting). He
holds an AB in Economics from Princeton University, where he graduated summa cum laude and Phi
Beta Kappa.
Discussant
Justin Petty, Vice President of Global Media Solutions and Partnerships, is dunnhumby’s solutions
director for media partnerships across 28 countries worldwide. In this role, Petty is responsible for
developing dunnhumby’s global media solutions portfolio that enables retailers and brands to
relevantly engage their customers outside of the physical store. Working directly with dunnhumby’s
client teams, Petty oversees the development of joint solutions with external partners that leverage
customer-centric targeting and measurement for television, digital, social and other media. Before
joining the media solutions team, Petty served as Solutions & Analytics Director within the Consumer
Market division, focusing on large-scale retail engagements in home improvement. In this role, Petty
was responsible for implementing best practices for the data management, insight capabilities, and
analytics behind these engagements and the delivery of personalized customer communications and
custom merchandising, pricing and promotional strategies. Prior to dunnhumby, Petty served as
Senior Director of Analytics at Aspen Marketing Services, where he provided integrated analysis for
clients in the telecommunications and automotive industries. He held similar responsibilities at SRI
Analytics, which was purchased by Aspen Marketing Services during his tenure. Petty began his career
as a Consultant at Equifax, where he built predictive models and predefined targeting for direct mail
campaigns. Petty holds a Master of Science in Statistics from the University of Kentucky and a
Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and Geography from Samford University.
Advertising Effectiveness of Visual Bundling in Online Retailing
E-retailers are increasingly using product videos on their websites to visually bundle their focal
products with matching complementary products (accessories). While such dynamic and vivid
presentation of product attributes in videos can increase product sales, providing excessive
information in videos could cause information overload for customers and thus reduce sales.
Moreover, it is not clear whether bundling such accessories in the focal product videos can have
spillover effects on their sales. We conducted a randomized field experiment on the live website of a
mid-size fashion retailer in the US to examine these issues and found that the introduction of
product videos led to a 15 percent increase in the focal products sales and a 31 percent increase in
the sales of accessories. We further examined the differential benefits to focal products and
accessories from such bundling and found that, while unpopular accessories enjoy an increase in
sales from their bundling in popular focal product videos, unpopular focal products do not get any
increase in their sales due to their bundling with popular accessories. Moreover, we found that the
sales of popular products (accessories) are not hurt due to their presentation with the unpopular
accessories (products) in videos. Overall, our results show that visual bundling of accessories in
focal product videos could be an effective strategy for multiproduct E-retailers interested in
boosting the sales of their products and accessories.
Anuj Kumar is an Assistant Professor of Information Systems Management at Warrington College of
Business Administration, University of Florida. He holds a PhD in Information Systems Management
from Heinz School of Information Systems and Management, Carnegie Mellon University. He also holds
a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering and a Master’s degree in Thermal Engineering from
Indian Institute of Technology, India, and a Master’s degree in management from Indian Institute of
Management, India. Professor Kumar is interested in understanding how consumers utilize technology
and how firms can internalize this knowledge to increase their profits. He has measured the value of
technology to the firms and consumers in a variety of different field settings. Specifically, he studied
multichannel customer behavior in IS enabled new technology channels e.g. customer support at call
centers and digital goods markets settings. He employs economic and behavioral theories to model
customer behavior and then utilizes econometric and probabilistic methods to extract actionable
insights from the field data. Professor Kumar has published his research in top tier journals like
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management and Information Systems Research.
Add More Ads? Experimentally Measuring Incremental Purchases due to Increased
Frequency of Online Display Advertising
Yahoo! Research partnered with a nationwide retailer to study the effectiveness of display
advertising on online and in-store sales for more than three million shared customers. We measure
the impact of higher ad impression frequency using a simple experimental design on Yahoo! users
in the ‘Full’ treatment group see the retailer’s ads, users in the ‘Control’ group see unrelated control
ads, and users in the ‘Half’ treatment group see an equal probability mixture of the retailer and
control ads. We find statistically significant evidence that the retailer ads increase sales 3.6% in the
Full group relative to the control group. Doubling the average number of impressions per person,
from 17 to 34 in a two-week period, nearly doubled the treatment effect. Leveraging our
experimental design, we find that the returns to ad frequency are approximately linear among
those who were eligible to see up to 50 ads and the marginal return to an additional ad exposure is
4¢. We also find intriguing evidence that the ads most strongly affected customers who live closest
to the retailer’s brick-and-mortar locations, purchased recently, are loyal customers, and are
wealthy.
Garrett Johnson is a doctoral candidate in economics at Northwestern University. His research
examines the economics of the Internet and the online display advertising industry in particular. In his
dissertation, he estimated the impact of privacy policy that would restrict user tracking on the market
for online display advertising. During his PhD, he also worked at Yahoo! Labs analyzing large-scale
field experiments that measured display ad effectiveness. In the fall, Garrett will be joining the
University of Rochester's Simon School of Business as an Assistant Professor of Marketing.
Randall Lewis is a senior economic research scientist in the Knowledge group at Google. In this role,
he studies advertising's impact on human behavior and seeks ways to improve the health and
efficiency of digital markets. Prior to joining Google in May 2012, Randall worked at Yahoo!
Research. Randall attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a Presidential Fellow where
he earned his PhD in economics with emphases in econometrics and industrial organization. His
dissertation is titled "Measuring the Effects of Online Advertising on Human Behavior Using Natural
and Field Experiments." Earlier, he attended Brigham Young University as a Hinckley Presidential
Scholar and graduated as a valedictorian with a double major in economics and mathematics.
David Reiley is a research scientist at Google. He is a pioneer in the use of field experiments in
economics. Economics has historically been an observational rather than an experimental science, but
David has been a leader in the movement to introduce experiments wherever possible. He designed
field experiments to test theories of auction bidding and charitable fundraising before he began to
focus on experimental measurement of the effects advertising on consumer behavior. Before moving to
Google in 2012, David spent five years at Yahoo! Research. He was previously the Arizona Public
Service Professor of Economics at the University of Arizona. He has also taught at Vanderbilt
University and at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. In addition to his
leadership in the area of field experiments, David also achieved recognition as the first academic
expert on the economics of online auctions. He has also pursued research on the effects of bus-driver
incentives in Santiago, on the strategic play of professional soccer and poker players, and on the
economics of email spam. David is the Co-Editor for Field Experiments at Economic Inquiry, and has
served as Vice President of Information for the Economic Science Association. He is a coauthor of the
best-selling game theory textbook Games of Strategy, with Avinash Dixit and Susan Skeath. David
holds a bachelor’s degree in Astrophysical Sciences from Princeton University, and a PhD in economics
from MIT.
Panel Two: Advertising Models – Going Beyond Marketing Mix and
Attribution
Moderator
Ron Surfield (SVP) leads the Digital practice in Edelman’s Atlanta office. Ron was most recently VP of
Professional Services at Jagged Peak, a boutique e-Commerce firm. At Jagged Peak, Ron’s team
developed and operated B2B & B2C websites for global brands such as Louis Vuitton,
Nespresso,TagHeuer, and United Healthcare. Prior to Jagged Peak, Ron led Turner Broadcasting’s
e-Marketing practice, where his team built websites and provided internal agency services for
CNN.com, CartoonNetwork.com, NBA.com, and Turner’s many other brands & sites. Ron previously
held a range of management roles at Internet firms including EarthLink, Cogent, and WorldCom. He
was a Naval Officer immediately after college, serving as Navigator on the USS Hawes, and as #3
Engineroom Officer on the USS Enterprise. Ron has a B.S. degree in Computer Science from the United
States Naval Academy, and an MBA from the Wharton School.
Discussants
Andy Fisher is chief analytics officer at Merkle. His primary responsibility is driving Merkle analytics
innovation, especially in digital, social and media analytics areas. Prior to joining Merkle, Andy was
the EVP, Global Data & Analytics Director at Starcom MediaVest Group where he led the SMG global
analytics practice. In this role he built and managed a team of 150 analytics professionals across 17
countries servicing many of the world’s largest advertisers. Prior to that role, Andy was Vice President
and National Lead, Analytics at Razorfish, where he led the digital analytics practice and managed a
team of modeling, media data, survey and business intelligence experts. He and his team were
responsible for some of the first innovations in multi-touchpoint attribution and joining online/offline
data for many of the Fortune 100. Andy has also help leadership positions at Personify and IRI. Andy is
an avid traveler having visited more than 100 countries. He also follows the chess world and is the
former US high school chess champion. Andy holds a BA in mathematics from UC Berkeley and an MA
in statistics from Stanford.
Jochen Talmon is the SVP of Business Development and International Sales since 2011 and is
responsible for managing and expanding the intelliAd brand, footprint and overall business across
international markets. He’s been in the digital space since 2003 and developed strategic and
international leadership skills in senior positions. Prior to joining intelliAd, Jochen was the Director of
Business Development at Looks, Inc. and held positions at Reliant, GoGorilla Media, and Messe
Frankfurt.
Co-Exposure and Advertisement Effectiveness: Toward a New Dimension of Electronic Media
Ratings
The mere presence of strangers changes the way ads are processed. Positive emotions enhance
memory, even of past eventse.g. the effect of a joyful moment in front of the TV set may carry
backwards to the previous commercial break. Since co-viewers of TV programs tend to feel happier
as compared to lone viewers we expect co-exposure to TV ads to positively affect ad effectiveness.
This hypothesis is tested with econometric models on people meter data from Mexico. We study
"promos" of television programs, which rid advertising effects from the noise introduced by pricing
and other factors, and allows to simultaneously observe exposure and consumption. We find that
co-exposure to program advertisements has predominantly positive effects on actual viewership,
matching or surpassing in absolute value those of individual exposure. These findings suggest that
individual ratings and co-exposure ratings may not be equally valuable for advertisers, which hints
at a new dimension of media planning.
José-Domingo Mora (PhD, Simon Fraser University) is an assistant professor of Marketing at the
Charlton College of Business, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. His research on co-viewing of
television programs has been published by the Journal of Advertising Research and the Journal of
Broadcasting & Electronic Media. His current work explores how co-exposure influences ad
effectiveness, as well as other forms of social influence in television audiences. Before pursuing
academic research Dr. Mora had been a marketing research manager for broadcast television, media
planning and audience measurement firms, as well as a product development specialist for P&G Latin
America.
Analyzing the Online Customer Journey: Attribution Modeling for Online Marketing
Exposures in a Multi-Channel Setting
Advertisers employ a variety of channels to reach consumers over the Internet. Accordingly, a
successful conversion is often preceded by multiple advertising exposures across different
channels. Yet little is known on how to attribute credit to the various exposures along this online
“customer journey”. Lacking substantiated data-driven models, marketers and publishers mostly
rely on simple heuristics like “last click wins” to determine channel performance. The authors
develop, evaluate, and implement a new efficient framework for online attribution modeling based
on first- and higher-order Markov graphs. The results facilitate the assessment of channel
contribution according to their reliability to drive online conversions and will help advertisers to
develop optimized multi-channel online marketing strategies and adjust marketing budgets.
Eva Anderl is a Ph.D. candidate at Universität Passau in Germany and currently a visiting scholar at
University of Massachusetts Boston. Eva has gained extensive practical experience as a management
consultant in the media and telecommunications industry and as head of network analytics of a
European telecommunications provider. She holds a master’s degree in computational linguistics and
computer science from Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich. Her research interests include
online marketing, marketing effectiveness and customer management for internet-based businesses.
Jan H. Schumann is professor of marketing & innovation at Universität Passau, Germany. His primary
research interests are online-marketing, pricing of services, relationship marketing, as well as crosscultural service marketing. His research has been accepted for publication at the Journal of Service
Research, the Journal of International Marketing, Technovation, Schmalenbach Business Review and
other outlets. His work has been awarded by the American Marketing Association and supported by
the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative, among others.
Panel Three: Combining Experimental and Non-Experimental Data
Moderator
Kartik Hosanagar is an Associate Professor of Internet Commerce at The Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania. Kartik's research work focuses on Internet media and Internet marketing.
Kartik has been recognized as one of the world's top 40 business professors under 40. He has received
several teaching awards including the MBA and Undergraduate Excellence in Teaching awards at the
Wharton School. His research has received several awards including the best paper award at the
Consortium on Technology Policy and Management. Kartik is a cofounder of Yodle Inc, a venturebacked firm that has been listed among the top 50 fastest growing private firms in the US. He has
served on the advisory board of Milo Inc (acq by eBay) and is involved with other startups as either an
investor or board member. His past consulting and executive education clients include Google, Nokia,
American Express, Citi and others. Kartik graduated at the top of his class with a Bachelor’s degree in
Electronics and a Masters in Information Systems from Birla Institute of Technology and Sciences
(BITS, Pilani), India, and he has an MPhil in Management Science and a PhD in Management Science
and Information Systems from Carnegie Mellon University.
Discussant
Vaman Kudpi is Senior Vice President, Marketing Science at GfK Consumer Experiences North
America. He provides methodological and analytical expertise to client service, project and product
development teams throughout GfK Consumer Experiences North America, with particular
concentration on the Brand and Communications, Technology and Financial Services practices. He has
been with the GfK Marketing Sciences group for over 17 years. His experience includes extensive work
on marketing/advertising response models using econometric methods, and product design and
communication optimization using discrete choice and related methods. He has worked on many of
GfK’s major brand tracking engagements over the years, with particular focus on the longitudinal
behavior of tracking metrics, and their links to marketing / advertising effort and to business
outcomes. Vaman earned his Ph.D. in Marketing from Northwestern University, and holds a Bachelor
of Technology degree in Chemical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, as
well as an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta.
Using a Field Experiment to Analyze the Profitability of Branded Keywords in Paid Search
Companies spend huge amounts of money on bidding for branded keywords in paid search, an
action referred to as brand bidding. These keywords typically capture a disproportionally high
share of clicks, conversions, and revenues in paid search campaigns, but might strongly cannibalize
organic search whose clicks are free of charge. Using a newly developed approach, the authors
explore the conditions under which brand bidding increases the advertiser’s profit and suggest
calculating the costs per incremental click and order to properly account for cannibalization. The
results of a large-scale field experiment show that brand bidding increases clicks and conversions
by 32% and 53%, respectively. Yet 51% of all paid clicks and 32% of all paid conversions
cannibalize organic search such that the costs per incremental click and order are 103% and 47%
higher than the costs per click and order, respectively. Still, brand bidding increases advertiser’s
profit by 38.15%.
Nadia Abou Nabout (http://www.marketing.uni-frankfurt.de/mitarbeiter-prof-skiera/dr-nadiaabou-nabout/) is assistant professor at the department of marketing at Goethe University Frankfurt,
Germany. She completed her Ph.D. in February 2012. Nadia’s advisor was Bernd Skiera. Her
dissertation is about “Optimal Search Engine Marketing,” in which she answers questions such as: how
to optimally set an advertiser’s bid in the keyword auction; how to best compensate an online
marketing agency that runs the entire advertiser’s search engine marketing; how to account for
cannibalization effects between paid and organic search. Her research addresses practical issues
related to online marketing, especially in the area of search engine marketing, ad exchanges, real-time
bidding, retargeting, and customer journey analysis. Nadia’s research has been published in Marketing
Science, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Interactive Marketing.
Together with Bernd Skiera, she was one of three finalists in “The Gary L. Lilien ISMS-MSI Practice
Prize” competition (for the video of the presentation, please see http://techtv.mit.edu/videos/18315prosad). Her dissertation won eight dissertation awards to date.
Bernd Skiera took over the very first chair of electronic commerce at a German University in spring
1999, at Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University in Frankfurt/Main. He is also a director of the E-Finance
Lab (www.efinance-lab.com) and a co-founder of two companies, Bonpago (a company that focuses on
financial supply chain management: www.bonpago.de) and Marini Media (a social media company
with a strong focus on the development of technology: www.marini-media.de). His current research
focuses on electronic commerce, online marketing, in particular search engine marketing, pricing and
customer management. His publications appeared in well-known journals (Management Science,
Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Product
Management, Journal of Management Information Systems, Journal of Service Research, European
Journal of Operational Research). He published (in German) more than seven book on topics such as
Sales Force Management, Metered Pricing, Web 2.0 and Financial Supply Chain Management.
Additionally, he co-authored on Electronic Commerce (second edition), and on Marketing for
Interactive Media (third edition). He consulted or provided executive training to, among others, SAP,
SAS, T-Online, Telekom, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Microsoft, Bearingpoint, Postbank, Mentasys.
Analyzing the Interdependence Between Web and Mobile Advertisements Using
Randomized Field Experiments and Large-Scale Archival Data
As companies divert more funds from traditional media towards digital advertising, they are
interested in understanding what effects the two channels of advertising—web advertising and
mobile advertising—have on consumer choices. Any analysis that measures the effects of web and
mobile advertising only separately remains incomplete. In this paper, we model and estimate the
interrelationship between web and mobile advertisements. First, we design and execute a
randomized field experiment. Our findings indicate that implementing web and mobile ads
simultaneously improves web click-through rates, mobile click through rates and web conversion
rates but decreases mobile conversion rates. This happens primarily because consumers are
disproportionately more likely to click on a display ad from a mobile device but subsequently make
a purchase through a PC. The cross-channel conversion rate from mobile to web is 2.7 times higher
than that from web to mobile. Despite this, the net change in sales (revenues) is positive when both
web and mobile advertising are available to consumers suggesting the presence of a “reinforcement
effect” in consumers’ minds from seeing both ads on two different devices. We present results from
policy simulations regarding the optimal level of web and mobile advertising using both CPC (cost
per click) and CPM (cost per thousand impressions) based pricing. To generalize our experiment
results, we utilize a massive panel dataset based on advertisement (product)-level responses to
display ads on both web and mobile channels for multiple product categories. The results from the
archival data analysis corroborate our results from the field experiment. Our findings suggest the
importance of accounting for the cross-channel interdependence between web and mobile
advertising. If only the same-channel effect were accounted for, the combined conversion effect of
mobile advertising would be underestimated by 48 percent, while that of web advertising would be
underestimated by 17 percent. These synergistic relationships run counter to the single-click
methodology in use and suggest that, for a market in which advertising dollars are allocated based
on their influence on purchase behavior, new methods must be developed to insure efficient market
functioning.
Anindya Ghose is an Associate Professor of Information, Operations, and Management Sciences and
the Robert L. & Dale Atkins Rosen Faculty Fellow at New York University's Leonard N. Stern School of
Business. He is the co-Director of the Center for Business Analytics at NYU Stern. He is also a Daniel P.
Paduano Fellow of Business Ethics at NYU Stern. His research analyzes the economic consequences of
internet and mobile technologies on industries and markets transformed by their shared
infrastructure. He has been quoted numerous times in the BBC, New York Times, Financial Times,
Forbes, NBC, Xinhua, Reuters, Washington Post, New York Daily, National Public Radio, Wall Street
Journal, MSNBC, China Daily, Knowledge@Wharton, and elsewhere. His research has received three
"Best Paper" awards, two "Best Paper Runner Up" awards and three “Best Paper Nominations” in
different conferences. He is a recipient of a CAREER award from the National Science Foundation. He is
also a recipient of several grants from Google, Microsoft, the Institute on Asian Consumer Insights,
Wharton Customer Analytics Institute, NET Institute and the Marketing Science Institute. He
frequently works with and consults for leading firms in the information technology, retail, financial
services, telecommunications, and travel industries on projects related to internet marketing, social
media analytics, mobile marketing, and digital advertising analytics. He also plays a senior advisory
role to several start-ups in the Internet space.
Sifting Through Commercials: How Commercial Break Timing and Duration Affect
Viewership
While television advertising remains one of the most effective ways to market to a mass-audience,
concerns over actual commercial viewership have been escalating with the increased availability of
commercial-free content online and the usage of recording devices which give viewers the ability to
skip commercials. With these concerns comes the need to estimate viewers' willingness to watch
advertisements during television programming in order to assess the impact of these trends on
advertisers. Such “willingness-to-watch” will depend on both the duration and timing of the
commercial breaks, which will impact ratings, and therefore the value of the advertising slot, as
well as consumers' willingness to pay for commercial-free content. Using rich, continuous time
ratings data and a natural experiment in China in which commercial breaks were banned from
specific types of shows, we estimate a dynamic channel switching model for viewers in order to
compare the pre- and post- regimes.
Bryan Bollinger is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at New York University Stern School of
Business. His research interests lie at the intersection of marketing, empirical industrial organization,
and economic policy, including empirical methods, dynamics, technology adoption, demand and
supply-side spillover effects, and the effectiveness of marketing mix variables and policy tools in
affecting consumer and firm behavior. Professor Bollinger received both a BA and BE in engineering
from Dartmouth College, and an M.A. in Economics and a Ph.D. in Marketing from Stanford University.
Panel Four: New Measurement Techniques – Eye Tracking and
Emotional Response
Moderator
Thales Teixeira is an assistant professor in the Marketing Unit at Harvard Business School. There he
teaches Digital Marketing to MBA students, PhD students and in executive education courses. He
researches the Economics of Attention using technologies such as eye-tracking and face-tracking. He
has published his research at Marketing Science, The Journal of Marketing Research and Harvard
Business Review. He has presented his work at many universities in the US and abroad, as well as at
companies such as Facebook Inc. and Paramount Pictures.
Discussants
Herb Sorensen, Ph.D. is a pre‐eminent authority on observing and measuring shopping behavior and
attitudes. He is the Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Ehrenberg--‐Bass Institute for Marketing Science
at the University of South Australia and the Scientific Advisor, TNS Global Retail & Shopper Practice.
He has been studying shoppers in their natural environments, inside stores, for 40 years. Herb is in
high demand by the world’s leading brands and retailers for his unique and razor sharp insights. Dr.
Sorensen's unique perspective is the subject of his book, Inside The Mind of the Shopper, published by
Wharton School Publishing. He shared the AMA EXPLOR award for “the most innovative use of
technology that advances marketing research” with colleagues at the Wharton School. He has been
quoted in The Wall St. Journal, Forbes, Business Week, and the BBC. Herb is on the Brain Trust panel of
RetailWire.com and writes a regular blog on shopper insights at www.shopperscientist.com. He was
recently named as the recipient of the 2013 Charles Coolidge Parlin Marketing Research Award by
AMA/AMAF.
Orlando Wood is Managing Director at BrainJuicer Labs. Orlando joined BrainJuicer in 2005. He
formerly worked at Research International and Simon Godfrey Associates (SGA). His work, drawing on
behavioural science to deliver better research techniques, has won the following awards: The Jay Chiat
Gold Award for Research Innovation (2011), The Market Research Society’s David Winton Award
(2010) and Best Paper Award (2010), ESOMAR’s Award for Best Methodological Paper (2007), the
ISBA Advertising Effectiveness Award (2007), the American Marketing Association’s '4 Under 40
Emerging Leader' Award (2011), and a Research Distinction Award from the Advertising Research
Foundation (2011).
The Effect of Activating Sponsorships in a Stadium on Key Brand Affinity Metrics and
Sponsorship ROI
With a combination of field research using RFID technology at a sporting event (NASCAR) and
intercept surveys, we investigate the value of sponsorship engagement and activation, accounting
for where fans are exposed and experience each of the sponsor positions in layout around the
event. We address these questions: Do more passionate fans process sponsor information more
deeply due to affective intensity? Do different sponsorship levels receive different levels of
attention commensurate with inventory prices? What is the relative value of sponsorship
engagement and activation in driving brand differentiation? Accounting for traditional media, what
is the contribution of sponsorship activation? Accounting for traditional media and sponsorship
engagement and activation, what is the contribution of second screen engagement?
Anne Rivers is SVP, Director of Global Brand Strategy at BrandAsset Valuator Consulting, a firm that
helps business executives, investors and marketers assess and drive strategic direction and intangible
value of brands. Anne uses the world’s largest database on brands to build brand level strategies that
incorporate macro and micro consumer trends. Ms. Rivers advised numerous financial firms during
recent market turmoil and helped her clients protect the value of their company’s brands as
competitors suffered in the court of public opinion. Anne uses her expertise in valuation from her days
of being an investment banker at Bear Stearns to help firms build the hardest asset to measure, the
brand, as discussed in her paper in Morgan Stanley’s Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Ms. Rivers
started the public flurry around Goldman Sach’s brand in the Financial Times and isolated the trends
and tactics to repair financial brands in a Davos paper with the World Economic Forum and the Paris
paper, Le Monde. In 2010 and 2011, Ms. Rivers was recognized as a leading sports brand expert and
has provided analysis for various leagues, teams and sports commentators. She is regularly quoted in
the USA Today about Tiger Woods, Lebron James and teams like the Miami Heat. Recent work has
focused on the effectiveness of sponsorship of professional leagues, teams and college athletics;
including a paper illuminating the value of sponsoring the NFL, written with Kirk Wakefield of Baylor.
Ms. Rivers also focuses on the importance of brands in the non-profit, real estate and higher education
spaces. Ms. Rivers has shown these brands are often not managed as actively because they lack a direct
effect on sales. However, the value of the brand to drive fans, donations and enrollments is even
greater in marketplaces with no discounting and little forgiveness. Today, Ms. Rivers serves as a
strategic consultant to many Fortune 500 companies on a wide range of image, branding and
corporate reputation issues. Her client relationships have included Allstate, Levi Strauss, Related
Companies, NFL, American Red Cross and Aetna. Anne has been quoted in many publications
including the Financial Times, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Le Monde, Risk Magazine, USA
Today. Anne is a frequently invited speaker, recently presenting trends and brand valuation work for
the Sloan Sports and Analytics Conference, Marketing Science Institute and the American Marketing
Association. Anne’s prior experience over the last 20 years includes leading the strategy, business
development and corporate finance efforts at Broder Bros., Co., drugstore.com, inc. and
GiftCertificates.com. Anne was also a Vice President in Investment Banking at Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.
focusing on retail and consumer companies, completing valuations and marketing materials for
mergers, acquisitions, and capital markets transactions. She held several marketing and finance
positions at Fidelity Investments. Anne has an M.B.A. from the NYU Stern School of Business and an
A.B. in Economics from The University of Chicago.
Kirk Wakefield Since arriving at Baylor University in 2002 as Chair of the Marketing Department
(2002-2008), Professor Wakefield has planned, initiated, and successfully executed plans for the
creation and development of three unique programs housed in the Department of Marketing,
including the Sports Sponsorship & Sales program and its advisory board of 35 major league teams,
the Brand Engagement & Promotion program with its own student-run record label
(www.uproarrecords.com) and entertainment company, and the $5 million endowment from Gary
Keller for the Keller Center for Residential Real Estate Marketing. In 2010, Dr. Wakefield was named
the Edwin W. Streetman Professor of Retail Marketing in the Hankamer Business School at Baylor
University. In 2013, Dr. Wakefield was awarded the Outstanding Professor Award-Scholarship for his
productivity from 2010-2012. Building upon his work in sponsorship ROI measurement, Dr. Wakefield
engages in Sponsorship Summits for properties and is affiliated with Brand Asset Consulting as a
consulting scholar. Dr. Wakefield’s research in retailing covering almost two decades focuses primarily
upon consumer response to pricing and promotional tools. This work appears in the Journal of
Retailing (1993, 1996, 1998, 2003), Journal of Marketing (2007, 2010), Journal of Consumer Research
(2010), and the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (2012), among others. His research
measuring consumer response to sports sponsorships can be found in the Journal of Advertising
Research (2006) and Journal of Advertising (2007, 2010). Dr. Wakefield has received awards for his
research published in the Journal of Retailing (2003), Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management
(2006), and Journal of Marketing (2007). In addition, drawing from his experience working with
scores of professional and collegiate sports teams and related research, Dr. Wakefield has written
Team Sports Marketing, published by Elsevier (2006), and now available as an online textbook at
www.teamsportsmarketing.com. Dr. Wakefield serves on the Editorial Review Board of the Journal of
Sport Management, where his early work on the measurement of sportscapes appears (1995, 1996).
Kirk received his degrees from Southwest Baptist University (BBA, 1980), Baylor University (MBA,
1981), and Saint Louis University (Ph.D., 1991). Prior to arriving at Baylor as Chair of the Marketing
Department, Kirk spent 11 years at Ole Miss in Oxford, MS, where he was promoted to Associate
Professor and acted as the Marketing Area Coordinator.
Affective Advertising: Automatic Measurement of Advertising Effectiveness from Emotional
Responses Collected Using the Cloud
Emotions play a very significant role in the effectiveness of advertising, whether it be in influencing
likability or behavior. We have collected the largest corpus of spontaneous emotional responses to
advertising in the world and show how moment-to-moment automatic measurement of naturalistic
facial responses can be used to predict likability and sales.
The research proposed utilizes a novel cloud based framework for measuring facial and self-report
responses to commercials over the Internet in order to understand the role of emotions in
advertising effectiveness. Specifically, we will analyze the first large scale data of automatically
measured facial responses collected using the cloud and report results of state-of-the-art models
for automatically predicting the effectiveness of advertisements. In this presentation we will show
results on over 10,000 responses to 120 ads.
Daniel McDuff is a PhD candidate in the Affective Computing group at the MIT Media Lab. McDuff
received his bachelor’s degree, with first-class honors, and master’s degree in engineering from
Cambridge University. Prior to joining the Media Lab, he worked for the Defense Science and
Technology Laboratory (DSTL) in the United Kingdom. He is interested in using computer vision,
wearable sensors and machine learning to enable the automated recognition of affect. He is also
interested in technology and interfaces for remote measurement of physiology for which his work has
received an award from Popular Science magazine as one of the top inventions in 2011. His work has
been reported in many publications including the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, BBC News
and Forbes magazine. Contact him at [email protected].
Concluding Remarks
Peter S. Fader is the Frances and Pei-Yuan Chia Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania. His expertise centers around the analysis of behavioral data to understand
and forecast customer shopping/purchasing activities. He serves as co-director of the Wharton
Customer Analytics Initiative, a research center that serves as a “matchmaker” between leading-edge
academic researchers and top companies that depend on granular, customer-level data for key
strategic decisions. Professor Fader believes that marketing should not be viewed as a “soft” discipline,
and he frequently works with different companies and industry associations to improve managerial
perspectives in this regard. His work has been published in (and he serves on the editorial boards of) a
number of leading journals in marketing, statistics, and the management sciences. He has won many
awards for his teaching and research accomplishments.