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HARNESSING YOUTH PARTICIPATION TO OVERCOME MIDDLE INCOME TRAP Haidy Ear-Dupuy ADB’s NGO and Civil Society Center Regional Sustainable Development Department ASIA’S 6% GDP FROM 1960-2010 Structural Change Migration Labor Contribution to Development RE-EMERGENCE OF ASIA Asian Share of Global GDP • Asia accounted for about 60% of world economy before Industrial Revolution • In the following two centuries, Asia’s share declined to 15% • Asia’s share today is 28% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003 2010 Asian Growth Rates 12.0% GDP Growth Rate 10.0% 8.0% Japan 6.0% NIC's 4.0% China & India • Asia began to re-emerge after 1950, spurred first by Japan, followed closely by the NICs • Starting in 1980s, first PRC then India gave further boost 2.0% 0.0% 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2010 3 ASIA 2050: ASIAN CENTURY Two scenarios: Asia Century (AC, high case) and Middle Income Trap (MIT, low case) scenarios. AC not Preordained: income disparities, environmental challenges, resources limitation, governance, climate changes THE ASIAN CENTURY Converging Asia Scenario: 2050 Middle East Rest of & North Sub Saharan Africa, 3% World, 2% Africa, 2% GDP at market exchange rate (Trillion) World 333 Asia 174 United States 38 Europe, 18% Latin America & Caribbean, 10% Asia, 52% GDP per capita at Constant PPP World 37,300 Asia 40,800 United States 94,900 North America, 13% Per cap incomes similar to Europe today; No poor country. Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC, Republic of Korea, and Thailand projected to account for 91% of Asia’s growth between 2010-2050. 5 WHAT’S NEXT FOR MIDDLE INCOME? More Value Addition and growth with inclusion and equity • Better skills • Beyond factory to services and knowledge-based • Deepening interaction and participation—more inclusion • Connecting economics to governance • Role of the people—youth energy YOUTH INCLUSION YOUTH: A PRECIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE ASIAN YOUTH CARES ABOUT GOVERNANCE • Deepening Intergenerational engagement • Better skill-higher value • More interaction with government—Balanced approach to governance • More responsive governments—supply and demand • Governance matters to youth • Global Opening Government Survey 2013: 50,000 responses from 61 countries “80% from Mongolia, 82% in Indonesiawant government to be more open” As countries get richer, their citizens demand a greater say-voice- in defining the country’s goals 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 6 7 8 9 (log) real GDP per capita, 2005 10 11 GOOD GOVERNANCE MATTERS TO GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT • “The manner in which power is exercised in the management of a country’s social and economic resources for development” (ADB 2000) • Worldwide Governance Indicators • MDBs give it a high weight (ADB-ADF, World Bank- IDA) • UN proposing good governance as a post-MDG target • 2012 survey in 90 countries: People rated it as top priority after education and health INCOME AND GOVERNANCE DIMENSIONS Voice Score 2.5 1.25 RMI FSM KIR PAL TAP KOR HKG TUV VAN SAM IND TON TIM 0 SOLPHI MON PNG INO GEO MLD BHU THA SRI BAN NEP KGZ PAK CAM -1.25 AFG MYA TAJ VIE LAO UZB SIN MAL ARM BRU FIJ KAZ AZE PRC TKM Regulatory quality Score -2.5 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 2.5 12 HKG SIN 1.25 TAP BRU KOR MAL GEO ARM THA 0 SRI KGZ PHI MON PRC KAZ SAM INO IND MLD AZE CAM FIJ PNG PAK VIE VAN TON NEP BAN PAL FSM RMI TIM TAJLAO SOL BHU TUV KIR AFG UZB -1.25 ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2013 MYA TKM -2.5 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 12 Control of corruption Score 2.5 SIN HKG 1.25 BHU VAN SAM MAL GEO RMI FSMTON SRI THA SOL PAL TUV INDFIJ ARMPRC VIE INO MON MLD NEP PHI BAN LAO PAK KAZ TIM CAM PNG KGZ AZE TAJ UZB TKM AFG MYA TAP BRU KOR KIR 0 -1.25 -2.5 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 12 Political Stability Score 2.5 KIR TUV FSM VAN TON SAMBHU 1.25 PAL MON RMI SOL TKM MAL VIE FIJ LAO ARM MLD KAZ TIM CAM SRI AZE UZB GEO PRC PNG INO TAJ THA KGZ MYA IND PHI BAN NEP 0 -1.25 -2.5 SIN BRU TAPHKG KOR AFG PAK 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 12 Government effectiveness Score 2.5 SIN HKG 1.25 MAL KOR TAP BRU BHU GEO PRC THA PHI SAM IND SRI ARM INO VAN VIE MLD KAZ TON PAL KGZ MON PNG FSMFIJ CAM KIR UZB TUV AZE NEP PAK BAN SOL TAJLAO TIM 0 -1.25 AFG MYA TKM RMI -2.5 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 12 Rule of law Score 2.5 SIN HKG 1.25 PAL TAP KOR BRU SAM MAL TUV VAN BHU RMI KIR TON FSM SRI IND GEO THA MON MLD VIEPHI ARMPRC SOL INO KAZ BAN PNG AZE PAK FIJ LAO NEP CAM TIM TAJ KGZ UZB TKM MYA 0 -1.25 AFG -2.5 6 8 10 log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $) 12 INCOME AND VOICE MIDDLE INCOME AND VOICE Inclusive policy making Bottom up Budgeting Planning Resourcing Story telling MfDR framework Evaluation Implementation Monitoring Citizen’s Report Card CSO/youth participation 17 TOOLS FOR ENGAGING WITH YOUTH • • • • Citizen’s Voice and Action Grassroots Budgeting Participatory Governance eGovernance GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP ASIAN YOUTH IN ACTION • • • • ANSA’s Check My School program/Banthay.PH Youth’s Philippines Good Governance Summit National Youth Commission on Grassroot budgeting ADB’s Asian Youth Forum New Delhi 2013—Youth Debate on critical policy issues-Kazakhstan 2014 • UN Technical working group on youth • Due to the participation of youth in the 5th General Meeting of Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO), NARBO is now preparing a new program for young professionals. • Korea Water Forum 2015 will include youth water organizations—inclusion in policy discussion INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND GOVERNANCE • Stem and reverse the decline in governance – more than dealing with corruption—develop trust • More transparent and accountable governance • Effective decentralization • Requires strengthening of institutions and building new ones • Increased voice and participation of citizenry 21 CONCLUSION • There is a correlation between wealth and demand for better governance—more efficient and effective • Knowledge economy requires space for participation • Path for each middle income countries differs, balanced approach to governance dimensions--contextual • Is MIT a misallocation of Talent and innovation stagnation? Or is it an economic constraint that needs a social solution? • Young people care about governance—voice and accountability—How does MfDR consciously support inclusion? • How do you envision your youth contributing? • What are some of joint government and youth initiatives for improved services?
