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Country Analysis Mode of Analysis • View country as a unit much like a firm with goals, comparative advantages and measurable outcomes. • More complicated as the goals are less obvious, constituencies more varied, and decision making less clear. • Examine past & present and project into the future. o Must choose time frame of analysis to guide focus. • No perfect system for describing a country’s situation.This system offers a straight-forward, easily comparable framework. • Country-level approach may also be questioned. Any country has many individual actors which will each have their own objectives, strategies and performance measures. Three Parts • Strategy • Context • Performance Strategy • Vision - Overall view of society • Goals • Policies Vision Guiding vision of the country as a place at the very longest term level. Goals: What and why? • Economic Goals • • Political Goals • • Social Goals • Economic Policies • Economic Policies: Obviously of Greatest Interest Dimensions of Analysis o Free Market Implementation vs. Government Control o Externally Oriented vs. Internally Oriented o Producer Oriented vs. Consumer Oriented Economic Policies • Fiscal Policies: o o o Quantity of Government Spending as a share of GDP Strategy of Tax Collection Budget Deficits • Monetary Policies o o Inflation Targets Exchange Rate Policy • Income Policies o Minimum Wage • Educational Policies • Foreign Trade and Investment o Tariffs and Capital Controls o Export Industry Policies o Attract FDI • Industrial Policies o Targeted Industries : Fiscal/tax subsidies o Antitrust o Regulatory Policies Noneconomic Policies • Social Policies o Population Policies o Crime Policies • National Security Policies o Defense Spending o Diplomacy & Alliances • Political Reform Policies Context Context includes the constraints on policy actions and the resources available to the country. Dimensions of Analysis • Domestic vs. International Constraints • Human vs Natural Resources Context • Resources o Natural Resources o Capital Resources o Human Capital Resources o Social Resources • Players of the Game o Firms: Corporate Sector o Government Actors o Non-state Actors • Rules of the Game o Formal Rules o Informal Rules • International Dimension Context • Resources • The Game o Rules of the Game o Players • International Context Resources • • • • Natural Resources Capital Resources Human Capital Resources Social Resources The game • Players of the Game o Firms: Corporate Sector o Government Actors o Non-state Actors • Rules of the Game o Formal Rules o Informal Rules The International Dimension Performance Indicators • Before the analysis, we should choose which is the scope in terms of time. o Long-Term o Medium-Term o Short-Term • Purpose will drive the choice of scope. Scope will drive the choice of performance indicators. Short-term Indicators • Financial Market & Exchange Rate Volatility • Balance of Payments (Trade Balance and Investment Flows) • Likelihood of Financial Crisis • Unemployment & Business Cycles • Interest Rates Medium Term Indicators • Inflation Rates & Longer Term Interest Rates • Prospects for Medium Term Economic Growth o Investment & R & D as Share of GDP o Historical Returns on Capital stock returns, 5 Year ICOR - Inflation Adjusted GDP Growth Rate/Investment% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Real Real GDP GFCF Growth 411,941 114,395 450,617 124,971 9.4% 464,058 127,326 3.0% 491,530 116,860 5.9% 540,216 119,966 9.9% 544,080 120,037 0.7% 604,127 127,393 11.0% 685,115 145,444 13.4% 742,971 157,232 8.4% 759,480 163,353 2.2% 789,088 176,685 3.9% 834,022 193,314 5.7% 884,840 210,684 6.1% 938,313 216,908 6.0% 994,738 249,541 6.0% 1,017,550 266,969 2.3% 1,060,215 295,382 4.2% 1,113,824 335,981 5.1% 1,046,700 310,404 -6.0% 1,073,453 258,398 2.6% 1,158,807 278,835 8.0% 1,164,568 286,223 0.5% 1,186,008 272,799 1.8% 1,221,659 275,329 3.0% 1,325,091 282,173 8.5% 1,418,935 293,610 7.1% 1,518,541 314,534 7.0% 1,615,431 325,349 6.4% 1,653,636 323,820 2.4% (I/Y)_-1 ICOR 27.8% 27.7% 27.4% 23.8% 22.2% 22.1% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2% 21.5% 22.4% 23.2% 23.8% 23.1% 25.1% 26.2% 27.9% 30.2% 29.7% 24.1% 24.1% 24.6% 23.0% 22.5% 21.3% 20.7% 20.7% 20.1% 0.34 0.11 0.22 0.42 0.03 0.50 0.64 0.40 0.10 0.18 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.09 0.16 0.18 -0.20 0.09 0.33 0.02 0.07 0.13 0.38 0.33 0.34 0.31 0.12 5 Year Average 0.22 0.25 0.36 0.40 0.33 0.36 0.31 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.10 0.06 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.13 0.19 0.19 0.25 0.30 0.29 HK ICOR (5 Year Rolling Averages) 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 20 06 20 08 20 00 20 02 20 04 19 96 19 98 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 86 19 88 0 Long Term Indicators • Societal Restructuring - Qualitative o Demographic Changes o Sectoral Reform (Liberalization/Nationalization) o Infrastructure Modernization o Institutional Political Changes Diagnoses • If performance has not captured goals, analysis might offer some additional information about what sort of reasons may have lead to the short-comings. Synthesis • Construct a story that uses the different elements to describe the situation faced by the country.