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Nature's shield: coastal habitats
protect people and property from
sea-level rise and storms
Katie Arkema
Metcalf webinar
November 2014
Increasing risks to coastal communities
Costs of coastal hazards to infrastructure
Colombia – Coal mining port
•
•
•
•
Texas – Dow Chemical Facility
Damages from erosion and flooding
Losses from business interruption
Higher insurance premiums
Costs, impacts of engineered protection
The promise of natural defense
Questions
Climate adaptation and coastal resilience
• Where and to what extent do existing habitats reduce
risk of people and infrastructure to coastal hazards now
and in the future?
• What are the costs and benefits of alternative
climate adaptation options?
Key actors
Climate adaptation and coastal resilience
• Where and to what extent do existing habitats reduce
risk of people and infrastructure to coastal hazards now
and in the future?
• What are the costs and benefits of alternative
climate adaptation options?
Exposure: Coastal hazard index
1
Sandy
Beach
3
2
4
Rocky Coast
GEOMORPHOLOGY
COASTAL HABITATS
WIND EXPOSURE
5
WAVE EXPOSURE
6
RELIEF
SURGE POTENTIAL
7
SEA LEVEL RISE
Coastal habitats shield people & property
A2 SLR
2100
Arkema et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change
Multiple metrics of risk reduction
Current
Poor families
Total population
A2 SLR
Over 65 yrs
Property value protected
Arkema et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change
What are the costs and benefits of alternative
climate adaptation options?
‘Green’
• Value suite of services
• Scenarios for climate
change and adaptation
options
‘Grey’
Adaption scenarios
Integrated
Reactive
•Protection and restoration of
coastal forests
•Coral reef protection
•Strategic construction of sea
walls to avoid undeveloped and
conservation areas and beaches
that are used for tourism
•Construction of sea walls along
all coastlines with development
•Some protection of coastal
forests
Habitats
Fisheries
Most important benefits from nature
Recreation & Tourism
Storm protection
Mangroves attenuate waves and reduce scour
Comparison of climate adaptation scenarios
Global Mitigation
NPV of total benefits
NPV Lobster fishing
NPV Tourism & recreation
NPV Carbon storage &
sequestration
NPV of total implementation costs
NPV of erosion damages from sea
level rise and storms
Total NPV of all benefits, costs and
damages
NPV compared to No Action
scenario
Adaptation Scenarios
No Action
Integrated
Reactive
$0.790
$1.300
$0.650
$0.008
$0.009
$0.006
$0.782
$1.273
$0.702
-
$0.013
-$0.061
-$0.005
-$0.015
-$0.191
-$2.517
-$2.556
-$2.005
-$1.731
-$1.275
-$1.550
-
$0.456 billion
$0.181 billion
Rosenthal et al 2013 Report to IDB
Recent policy calls for green infrastructure
http://woods.stanford.edu/static/media/ncp-pr-20141118.html
Interdisciplinary collaboration
Belize MSP:
Chantalle Clarke
Samir Rosado
Maritza Canto
Amy Rosenthal
Mary Ruckelshaus
Spencer Wood
Greg Verutes
US Risk analysis:
Greg Guannel
Greg Verutes
Spencer Wood
Peter Kareiva
Mary Ruckelshaus
Anne Guerry
Jess Silver
Martin Lacayo
InVEST software: Steve Polasky, Peter Kareiva,
Gretchen Daily, Taylor Ricketts, Mary Ruckelshaus,
Erik Nelson, Adrian Vogl, Becky Chaplin-Kramer,
Yonas Ghile, Lula Gabremicheal, Guillermo Mendoza,
Driss Ennaanay, Manu Sharma, Marc Conte, Jim
Regetz, Derric Pennington, Heather Tallis, Anne
Guerry, Spencer Wood, Katie Arkema, Gregory
Guannel, Jodie Toft, Chong Ki Kim, Mike Papenfus,
Apollo Qi, Gregory Verutes, Matthew Marsick,
Nasser Olwero, Nirmal Bhagabati, Robin Naidoo, Eric
Lonsdorf, Kai Chan, Dick Cameron, Rich Sharp, James
Douglass, Doug Denu, Kathryn Wyatt, Dave Fisher
Funding: Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation |Summit Foundation
| IDB| Google Tides| WWF| TNC
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