Market Analysis • It is a documented investigation of a Market that is used to inform a firm's planning activities particularly around decision of: • inventory, purchase, work force expansion/contraction, • facility expansion, purchases of capital equipment, promotional activities, and many other aspects of a company. • Not all managers are asked to conduct a market analysis, but all managers must make decisions using market analysis data and understand how the data was derived. • So all managers need a reasonable understanding of the tools most used for making sales forecasts and analyzing markets. • A large number of market analysis techniques are related to sales forecasting, others are more general techniques for analyzing markets. • The literature defines several areas in which market analysis is important. • These include: sales forecasting, market research, and marketing strategy. • Sales forecasting and market analysis are complementary skills that any marketing manager should possess Market Equilibrium • Situation where the supply of an item is exactly equal to its demand. • Since neither there is surplus nor shortage in the market, there is no innate tendency for the price of the item to change. • Markets exist in all types of goods and services, and as economists, we are interested in how they work and what causes them to change. • The market price is determined by the interaction of market supply (producers) and market demand (consumers). • The point at which the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied is the equilibrium point. • This point states the price of the good (P1) and the market quantity (Q1). • Assuming that neither curve shifts, then market forces will maintain the equilibrium price. • For instance, assume that the price rises above P1, then the firms will react by wishing to supply more (the price is higher, therefore, the revenue will be higher), at the same time consumers will demand less. • The outcome is that there is excess supply. • In other words, supply is greater than demand. • This situation results in producers having unsold stocks. • In this case, producers will wish to sell stocks as they cost money to produce and maintain. • Therefore, to sell them they will reduce the price of the good (contraction in supply). • The lower price will encourages more demand for the good The new equilibrium price will be P2. • (extension in demand). This process continues until the supply and demand are again in equilibrium. • If the position of either the demand and / or supply curve shifts, then the equilibrium price and quantity will change. For instance, if the good becomes more fashionable, then the demand curve will shift from D1 to D2. Market Equilibrium Price • In this note we bring the forces of supply and demand together to consider the determination of equilibrium prices. • The Concept of Market Equilibrium • Changes in the conditions of demand or supply will shift the demand or supply curves. This will cause changes in the equilibrium price and quantity in the market. Changes in Market Demand and Equilibrium Price • The demand curve may shift to the right (increase) for several reasons: • A rise in the price of a substitute or a fall in the price of a complement • An increase in consumers’ income or their wealth • Changing consumer tastes and preferences in favour of the product • A fall in interest rates (i.e. borrowing rates on bank loans or mortgage interest rates) • A general rise in consumer confidence and optimism • The outward shift in the demand curve causes a movement (expansion) along the supply curve and a rise in the equilibrium price and quantity. Firms in the market will sell more at a higher price and therefore receive more in total revenue. • The reverse effects will occur when there is an inward shift of demand. A shift in the demand curve does not cause a shift in the supply curve! Demand and supply factors are assumed to be independent of each other although some economists claim this assumption is no longer valid! Changes in Market Supply and Equilibrium Price • The supply curve may shift outwards if there is • A fall in the costs of production (e.g. a fall in labour or raw material costs) • A government subsidy to producers that reduces their costs for each unit supplied • Favourable climatic conditions causing higher than expected yields for agricultural commodities • A fall in the price of a substitute in production • An improvement in production technology leading to higher productivity and efficiency in the production process and lower costs for businesses • The entry of new suppliers (firms) into the market which leads to an increase in total market supply available to consumers • The outward shift of the supply curve increases the supply available in the market at each price and with a given demand curve, there is a fall in the market equilibrium price from P1 to P3 and a rise in the quantity of output bought and sold from Q1 to Q3. • The shift in supply causes an expansion along the demand curve. • Important note for the exams: • A shift in the supply curve does not cause a shift in the demand curve. • Instead we move along (up or down) the demand curve to the new equilibrium position. • A fall in supply might also be caused by the exit of firms from an industry perhaps because they are not making a sufficiently high rate of return by operating in a particular market. • The equilibrium price and quantity in a market will change when there shifts in both market supply and demand. • Two examples of this are shown in the next diagram: • In the left-hand diagram above, we see an inward shift of supply (caused perhaps by rising costs or a decision by producers to cut back on output at each price level) together with a fall (inward shift) in demand (perhaps the result of a decline in consumer confidence and incomes). • Both factors lead to a fall in quantity traded, but the rise in costs forces up the market price. • The second example on the right shows a rise in demand from D1 to D3 but a much bigger increase in supply from S1 to S2. • The net result is a fall in equilibrium price (from P1 to P3) and an increase in the equilibrium quantity traded in the market. The importance of price elasticity of demand • The price elasticity of demand will influence the effects of shifts in supply on the equilibrium price and quantity in a market. This is illustrated in the next two diagrams. • In the left hand diagram below we have drawn a highly elastic demand curve. • We see an outward shift of supply – which leads to a large rise in equilibrium price and quantity and only a relatively small change in the market price. • In the right hand diagram, a similar increase in supply is drawn together with an inelastic demand curve. • Here the effect is more on the price. • There is a sharp fall in the price and only a relatively small expansion in the equilibrium quantity. Economic surplus(consumer Surplus and Producer surplus) • Consumer surplus is a measure of the welfare that people gain from the consumption of goods and services, or a measure of the benefits they derive from the exchange of goods. • Consumer surplus is the difference between the total amount that consumers are willing and able to pay for a good or service (indicated by the demand curve) and the total amount that they actually do pay (i.e. the market price for the product). • The level of consumer surplus is shown by the area under the demand curve and above the ruling market price as illustrated in the diagram below: Consumer surplus and price elasticity of demand • When the demand for a good or service is perfectly elastic, consumer surplus is zero because the price that people pay matches precisely the price they are willing to pay. • This is most likely to happen in highly competitive markets where each individual firm is assumed to be a ‘price taker’ in their chosen market and must sell as much as it can at the ruling market price. • In contrast, when demand is perfectly inelastic, consumer surplus is infinite. • Demand is totally invariant to a price change. • Whatever the price, the quantity demanded remains the same. • Are there any examples of products that have such a low price elasticity of demand? • The majority of demand curves are downward sloping. • When demand is inelastic, there is a greater potential consumer surplus because there are some buyers willing to pay a high price to continue consuming the product. • This is shown in the diagram below: Changes in demand and consumer surplus • When there is a shift in the demand curve leading to a change in the equilibrium market price and quantity, then the level of consumer surplus will alter. • This is shown in the diagrams above. • In the left hand diagram, following an increase in demand from D1 to D2, the equilibrium market price rises to from P1 to P2 and the quantity traded expands. • There is a higher level of consumer surplus because more is being bought at a higher price than before • In the diagram on the right we see the effects of a cost reducing innovation which causes an outward shift of market supply, a lower price and an increase in the quantity traded in the market. • As a result, there is an increase in consumer welfare shown by a rise in consumer surplus. • Consumer surplus can be used frequently when analysing the impact of government intervention in any market – for example the effects of indirect taxation on cigarettes consumers or the introducing of road pricing schemes such as the London congestion charge.