Download Direct and Indirect Causes of Deforestation

Direct and Indirect
Causes of Deforestation
Daniel Murdiyarso
CIFOR
Seminar on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade
Bogor, 12 May 2008
Outline
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Introduction
Decreasing forest cover
Causes of deforestation
Challenges for biofuels development
Conclusions
Global forest cover
is steadily decresing
tree cover threshold
0%
100%
Courtesy: Matt Hansen, S. Dakota State Univ.
Some numbers
• Total emissions p.a.:
Fossil fuels:
LUCF:
7.2 GtC (27 Gt CO2)
5.6 GtC (21 Gt CO2)
1.6 GtC (6 Gt CO2)
• Deforestation contributes: 20%
• Forest area:
1.3 Bha
• Deforestation rate:
11 Mha/y (1%/y)
• Deforestation contributes: 0.25%/y to soybeans
6%/y to oil palm
C-emissions from LUC in the tropics
(million tons)
1400
1200
South and Southeast Asia
South and Central America
1000
Sub-Saharan Africa
800
600
400
200
0
18
50
18
65
18
80
18
95
19
10
19
25
19
40
19
55
19
70
19
85
20
00
Source:. Houghton (2004)
Deforestation rates in Indonesia
Image and
Date
Forest
cover
Deforestation
rate (Mha/yr)
Reference
LANDSAT
1997
95,843,088
1.7
Holmes (1999)
LANDSAT
1998
95,628,800
1.8
WRI-FWI-GFW
(1999)
103,793,886
1.2
JRC/EU (2000)
SPOT vegetation
2000
Land-based emissions
3,000
MtCO2e
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
(500)
United States
China
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
(1,000)
Agriculture
Forestry
Source: PEACE (2007)
Peatland drainage and fires
Evapotranspiration
CO2 emissions
Evaporation
<>
<
<>
<
∪
Fire
Subsidence =
Oxidation +
Compaction
<>
<
Fire
Fire
Oxidation +
Compaction
= Subsidence
Water table
Drainage canal
When enough is enough
Î
Î 17%
17% of
of deforestation
deforestation
Î
Î 24%
24% of
of deforestation
deforestation
Î
Î 29%
29% of
of deforestation
deforestation
Source: http://www.panda.org/news_facts/newsroom/index.cfm?uNewsID=125741
Planned deforestation
• Logging has played an
important role in regional
economy
• Ministerial Decree 1983
• Involve ca. 30 Mha tropical
forests
• Large tropical forests have
been converted to cash and
estate crops (timber,
pulpwood and oil-palm
plantations)
The development of oil-palm
plantations in Indonesia
(x 1000 ha)
Island
Kalimantan
1985
1998
New
Outstanding
0
563
563
4,760
Sumatra
806
2,240
1,435
9,395
Sulawesi
12
101
89
665
Papua
23
31
8
590
Maluku
0
0
0
236
Others
2
22
20
1,777
843
2,957
2,115
17,423
Total
Source: World Bank, 1999
Biofuels development
• Is it really green or climate neutral?
• Oil palm plantations often result in forest
•
conversions (including peatlands) and thus
increase emissions
Can we avoid deforestation while promoting
biofuels?
Net effect on climate change
(Cf - Cop)
Compensation point = -------------------------------------------------------------------(12/44) * (CO2eq,min-die - (fcal * CO2eq,bio-die-a)) * YLD
Danielsen et al., Forthcoming
Causes of deforestation
Direct causes
Indirect/underlying causes
• Agricultural
expansions
• Wood extraction/
logging
• Infrastructure
development
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(Geist and Lambin, 2002)
(Kaimowitz and Angelsen, 1997)
Economic factors
Political factors
Technological factors
Cultural factors
Demographic factors
Unsustainable wood extraction
• Poor logging practices in
“legal” concessions
• Illegal logging
• Debris left behind fuels
forest fires
Infrastructure development
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Road construction
Provides access for timber extraction,
conversion, and settlement
Economic: Market failures
• Commodity prices continue to rise
• Carbon, biodiversity, water and other ecosystem
services remain underpriced
Source: Roberts (2007)
Political: Governance failures
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Unclear property rights
Overlapping jurisdictions
Non-transparent decision-making
Weak law enforcement and judicial systems
Technological: Misguided policies
• Structural overcapacity in pulp and
paper sector
• Insufficient fiber supply from
plantations
• World demand on pulp and paper
China
• 2002: 13.5 Mt y-1
• 2005: 25.1 Mt y-1
• Approved further 10.5 Mt y-1
Source: Wright, 2004
Challenges for biofuels
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The EU target for biofuels in the transport
sector is 5.7 percent by 2010 and 10
percent by 2020
To what extent is biofuels development
leading to the loss of forests and
associated ES, such as water and bioD?
Under what circumstances can the
transition from fossil fuels to biofuels be
consistent with broader SD objectives, incl.
poverty reduction?
How will biofuel crops displace domestic
food production and affect food prices?
Strong policies and standards/
certification procedures are needed
Concluding Remarks
• There is a clear linkages between deforestation
and world’s demands of fiber, food, and fuel
• Understanding the underlying or indirect causes
of deforestation is crucial to address REDD and
climate change
• Most deforestation is driven from outside forestry
sector (e.g. palm-oil and pulp & paper)
• Land-use policies and spatial planning should
consider carbon-rich ecosystems (e.g. peatlands)