Download Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Resources to Climate Change

Vulnerability and Adaptation of
Water Resources to Climate
Change in Egypt
Dr. Dia Eldin Elquosy
[email protected]
Water Resources in Egypt
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Nile Water
Groundwater
Rainfall
Egypt Water Budget
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Nile
Groundwater
Rainfall
Land Drainage Reuse
Treated Sewage and Industrial Effluent
Desalination
Demand
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Agriculture and Aquaculture
Domestic
Industry
Navigation
Hydropower
Environmental requirements
Sensitivity of the Water System to
Climate Change
Table 1: Change of Flow Corresponding to Uniform Change in Rainfall for Nile Sub-basins
(Sayed 2004)
Change
in
-50%
-25%
-10%
+10%
+25%
+50%
Atbarra (Atbara)
-93%
-60%
-24%
+34%
+84%
+187%
Blue Nile (Diem)
-92%
-62%
-24%
+32%
+78%
+165%
Blue Nile (Khartoum)
-98%
-77%
-31%
+36%
+89%
+149%
Lake Victoria (Jimja)
-20%
-11%
-4%
+6%
+14%
+33%
White Nile (Malakal)
-41%
-28%
-11%
+19%
+48%
+63%
Main Nile (Dongla)
-85%
-63%
-25%
+30%
+74%
+130%
rainfall
Sub-basin
Sensitivity of the Water System to
Climate Change
Table 2: Nile Flows under Sensitivity Analysis (Strezpek et al. (1996))
Precipitation
-20%
-20%
-20%
0.0%
0.0%
Temperature
0
2
4
2
4
0
2
4
Flow (BCM)
32
10
2
39
8
147
87
27
% of base
37
12
2
46
10
171
101
32
+20% +20% +20%
Scenarios on the Effect of Climate
Change on Nile Flows
Table 3: Nile Flows under GCM Scenarios (Strezpek et al. (1996))
Base
UKMO
GISS
GFDL
Precipitation
100
122
131
105
Temperature
0
4.7
3.5
3.2
Flow (BCM)
84
76
112
20
% of base
100
91
133
24
Scenarios on the Effect of Climate Change on Nile Flows
•Figure (1): Scenarios of change in Nile flows (Strezpek et al. (2001))
Scenarios on the Effect of Climate Change on Nile
Flows
Figure (2): Annual Average Stream Levels on the Nile at Atbara
(UNEP 2005, Nile Water Sector, 2003)
Bergen University (Norway), 2007
sensitivity to rainfall is larger than that to
evapotranspiration because the latter is only
fully satisfied when soils have enough
moisture content. Kagera catchment is more
sensitive to evapotranspiration due to the
existence of a number of small lakes and
swamps while the sensitivity of Atbara to
precipitation is highest as it is the most
seasonal of all three catchments
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD), 2004
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Nile water availability is likely to be increasingly
stressed due to higher demand and higher
evaporative losses.
This potential vulnerability could be seriously
exacerbated should climatic impacts be
accompanied by any concomitant reduction in
the country's allocation of Nile water, or even
unaccounted for excessive abstraction from
upstream riparian countries
International Water Management
Institute (IWMI), 2008
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Basin under future climate scenarios may cause: i) wetter
and warmer climate in most of the Upper Blue Nile River
Basin, ii) low flows may become higher and severe, mid
to long term droughts are likely to become less frequent;
and iii) the potential future dam operations are unlikely
to significantly affect water availability to Sudan and
Egypt based on predicted outflows from six GCM's and
many operation scenarios. The results are, however,
uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, which
suggest that the region is likely to have the future
potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration
and increase water storage capacity without affecting
outflows to riparian countries in the 2050's
Conclusions
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High sensitivity to precipitation and
temperature
Uncertainty of orders of magnitude
Effect of high and low natural flows on
Egypt water system
Few publications on the effect of climate
change on rainfall in Egypt
Groundwater increased salinity due to sea
level rise
Adaptation
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Uncertainty
Inflow increase
Inflow reduction
Development of new water resources
Soft interventions