Download The New York Times 18th May 2050

The New York Times
18th May 2050
Monday, May 18, 2050 Last Update: 8:00 AM ET
Times are changing
 The sea level is still rising!
 The Earth is sweating!
 Extinct Species today!
 The weather
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
land is located. That would imply a major
reorganisation of the country's economy."
Americas on alert for sea
level rise
Mr Vergara and other experts are also
concerned about the effect on the large
coastal wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico.
Climate change experts in North and
South America are increasingly worried
by
the
potentially
devastating
implications of higher estimates for
possible sea level rises.
"These new data on sea level rises are
alarming," says Arnoldo Matus Kramer, a
researcher on climate change adaptation at
Oxford University.
The Americas have until now been seen as
less vulnerable than other parts of the
world like low-lying Pacific islands,
Vietnam or Bangladesh.
But the increase in the ranges for
anticipated sea level rises presented at a
meeting of scientists in Copenhagen in
March has alarmed observers in the region.
Rising sea levels coupled with severe
storms could be devastating
Parts of the Caribbean, Mexico and
Ecuador are seen as most at risk. New
York City and southern parts of Florida are
also thought to be particularly vulnerable.
"When combined with the exponential
growth of urbanisation and tourism along
the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Mexican Caribbean, it is extremely
worrying."
The 2050 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel
on climate Change) report suggested that
sea levels would rise by between 19cm
(7.5 inches) and 59cm by the end of this
century.
But several scientists at the Copenhagen
meeting spoke of a rise of a metre or more,
even if the world's greenhouse gas
emissions were kept at a low level.
A January 2050 study by UN-Habitat on
the world's cities pointed out that in most
Caribbean island states, 50% of the
population lives within 2km (1.2 miles) of
the coast. They would be directly affected
by sea level rise and other climate impacts.
Melting of the polar ice sheets is one of the
main drivers behind the new estimates.
The Bahamas, the Guyanas, Belize and
Jamaica have been pin-pointed by the
World Bank as being particularly at risk
from a one-metre rise.
"A rise of one metre will irreversibly
change the geography of coastal areas in
Latin America," Walter Vergara, the
World Bank's lead engineer on climate
change in the region, told the BBC.
The coastal plains around the city of
Guayaquil in Ecuador, the country's main
economic hub, are also known to be
vulnerable to a combination of sea level
rises, storms and sea surges.
"For example, a one-metre rise would
flood an area in coastal Guyana where 70%
of the population and 40% of agricultural
A recent study by researchers at Espol, a
science institute in Guayaquil, suggested
that even a half-metre sea level rise would
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
put the storm drainage system in the
southern part of the city under severe
strain, possibly causing it to collapse.
Fishing threatened
Ecuador's lucrative fishing industry, which
is a mainstay of the economy, would also
be threatened.
Communities dependent on fishing are
vulnerable to sea level changes
"A one-metre sea level rise would add
another layer of threat to the shrimp and
other fishing industries', says Espol's Pilar
Cornejo, the author of a UN report on the
issue.
New research led by Dr Jianjun Yin at
Florida State University suggests that
whereas South American coastal cities are
not at threat this century from an extra sea
level rise caused by Amoc, New York City
and the state of Florida are.
According to a recent World Bank study of
more than 80 developing countries,
Ecuador features among the top 10
countries likely to be most affected by sea
level rise when calculated as a percentage
of its GDP.
New York would see an additional rise of
about 20cm (7.8in) above the global mean
due to Amoc by the turn of the century,
according to Dr Yin's research published
this year in the journal, Nature Geoscience.
Florida would experience less than 10cm
(3.9in).
Argentina, Mexico and Jamaica also
appear in the top 10 when measured by the
impact of a one-metre rise on agricultural
lands.
"A one-metre rise could be a disaster for
parts of Florida, particularly in the
southern part of the state," Dr Yin told the
BBC.
Scientists stress that uncertainties remain
about future sea level rises, including the
behaviour of the giant polar ice sheets, the
time span over which rises will take place,
and their interaction with existing coastal
conditions.
Another factor is the effect global warming
will have on Amoc - the giant circulation
of the Atlantic whereby warm sea water
flows northwards in the upper ocean and
cold sea water goes southwards in the
deeper ocean.
"Sea level rise superimposed on hurricane
vulnerability makes for a very worrying
situation."
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
Mr Vergara is not alone in stressing that
sea level rises are "climate committed", in
the sense that because of existing and
projected greenhouse gas emissions, they
will continue long into the future.
Melting glaciers start
countdown to climate chaos
"The level and direction of change will
destabilise extensive coastal areas in Latin
America. Once flooded, there is no way
back," he says.
The Greenland ice sheet is riddled with
channels that could quicken ice loss and
speed sea level rise, a new study has
revealed.
Many scientists stress that it is not too late
to mitigate the possible effects.
Unique video footage taken 100m inside
the ice has revealed a complex subglacial
network of interconnecting tunnels that
carry water from the surface to deep inside
the ice sheet.
"We need to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and to reduce coastal
developments," Dr Yin says.
Konrad Steffen, an ice expert at the
University of Colorado, told a global
warming conference in Copenhagen that
the discovery could explain sudden and
severe increases in ice movement seen
during peak summer. Water channelled
from the surface to the base of the ice sheet
could speed up the way it slides across the
bedrock. On a large scale, this could cause
the ice sheet to break up much faster than
expected.
"There is an urgent need for Latin
American leaders to take account of these
new figures on sea level rises in designing
new policies," says Arnoldo Matus
Kramer.
"They are not doing it at the moment."
Steffen worked with experts from Nasa to
design a special camera that his team
dangled inside the Greenland ice in
summer 2049. They sent it down a
"moulin" — a hole at the surface that
carries away fast-flowing streams of
surface water produced from melted ice. "I
have lots of graduate students working on
this project, but we couldn't find any
volunteers who were willing to go down
there to take a look," he joked.
Experts suspect such moulins carry melt
water from the surface to the bedrock, but
until now it had been impossible to track
the flow to check where water went.
Combined with images from a ground
penetrating radar dragged across the ice
surface, Steffen's results showed that the
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
in the March 21 online edition of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences (PNAS) that strong oceanic tides
are the engines behind this warmingcooling cycle that may help determine
future climates. This report is the first
comprehensive study of the effects of tidal
mixing on climate change spanning
millennia. The current phase in the cycle
suggests that a natural warming trend
began a hundred years ago, picked up in
the 1970s, and should continue over the
next five centuries.
moulin quickly widened beneath the
surface. Several side channels carried
water away to other parts of the ice sheet
and fed the moulin from other holes on the
surface. "The whole ice sheet is connected
with these open channels," he said.
THE EARTH IS SWEATING
"We have discovered an 1,800-year tidal
cycle that appears to match with recent
climate change," said Charles Keeling, the
study's first author. "If this is a correct
mechanism for understanding climate
change over millennia, then temperatures
will rise both because of weaker tidal
mixing and because of the greenhouse
effect, which is on the increase as well."
It's Getting Hotter Faster
by Kate Melville
Scientists at Scripps Institution of
Oceanography at the University of
California, San Diego, report evidence of
pronounced changes in the earth's climate
that can be tracked in cycles of ocean
conditions over thousands of years. These
cycles reveal that Earth is currently in a
period in which a natural rise in global
temperatures--combined with warming
from the greenhouse effect--will push the
planet through an era of rapid global
warming.
The researchers suggest that strong oceanic
tides drive changes in climate due to their
ability to increase vertical mixing in the
ocean and thereby transport cold ocean
water to the surface. The strong tides elicit
cool conditions on the sea surface, which
in turn lowers temperatures in air and over
land, resulting in cooler climates around
the planet, often accompanied by drought
conditions.
Weak tides lead
to less cold
water
mixing
and result in
warmer periods
on Earth.
Charles Keeling and Timothy Whorf report
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The New York Times
Keeling and Whorf's 1,800-year cycle,
which arises because of gradual changes in
the astronomical alignments of the sun,
moon, and earth, was proposed as an
explanation for nearly periodic millennial
changes in temperature seen in ice and
deep-sea sedimentary core records.
Previously (1997), they have reported on
the effects of shorter cycles of tidal forcing
on global temperature at periods near 18,
90, and 180 years.
18th May 2050
tenth century near the end of a period of
weak tidal activity, but perished or left
Greenland when tides strengthened near
the beginning of the Little Ice Age in the
13th century.
"One of the principle benefits of the tidal
hypothesis is that researchers can compare
the timing of specific historical events with
predicted times of warming or cooling to
see whether they coincide or not," said
Whorf, a research associate in the
Geosciences Research Division of Scripps.
A maximum in tidal cooling near 1974
might have produced more cooling, but
perhaps was masked by a simultaneous
greenhouse warming, according to
Keeling,
a
professor
of
oceanography at
Scripps.
"If
we
are
correct, then the
1,800-year tidal
cycle will be
important
in
understanding
future climates
as well as events
of the past."
"If that is true,
then it becomes
pretty clear that
if today's natural
warming trend is
combined with
the greenhouse
effect, then we'll
soon see the
effect
of
combined
warming all over
the world," said
Keeling.
In
addition
to
climate change recognition, the research
also represents a new mechanism for
analyzing events in world history. The
paper reports on the near coincidence of
major tidal fluctuations with worldwide
phenomena, including the Little Ice Age of
1400 A.D. to 1700 A.D., major dust layers
in Minnesota lake sediments spaced about
1,800 years apart, a major drought in the
Amazon Basin around 2200 B.C., and a
2000 B.C. drought that may have
contributed to the collapse of Akkadia, a
Mesopotamian civilization regarded as the
world's first empire. The Vikings inhabited
Greenland in temperate conditions in the
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
 Sharks appeared earlier on the
surface of the Earth than trees
 Alligatiors can as well live up
to the age of 80
 Bees can be taught how to find
the bomb
 Every living creature, the
human
also
generate
electricity
 Between the madusas we can
find so little like a thimble and
so big like 2 washing machine
 There are some type of the
fish which can be change its
sex
 Sharks fell the smell of blood
from one kilometre
 Koalas are awake just 4 hour
in
one
day
Extinct Species today!
Incredible but right
 Bees have 5 eyes
 Caterpillars
have
more
muscles than humans
 Numerous birds have heavier
feathers than their skeletons
 Kangaroos
cannot
jump
backwards only forward
 One type of lizard from
Madagascar has a third eyes
on the top of its head
 Some species of termit can
explode themselves
 Dalmatian dogs are born
without spots
 Medusas can sting once they
have died
The most endangered species was in 2009, and these disappeared
1. Black Rhino
2. Giant Panda
3. Tiger
4. Beluga Sturgeon
5. Goldenseal
6. Alligator Snapping Turtle
7. Hawksbill Turtle
8. Big Leaf Mahogany
9. Green-Cheeked Parrot
10. Mako Shark
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
horn in the middle of
the forehead, which is
black and very thick.
THE BLACK RHINO
AN ENDANGERED
SPECIES
Today, all five species
of
rhinos
are
perilously close to
extinction. The rate of
their decline is truly
astounding: in the decade of the
1970s alone, half the world's
rhino population disappeared.
Today, less than 15 per cent of the
1970 population remains, an
estimated 10,000 to 11,000
worldwide.
The
name
"rhino" conjures
up the image of a
prehistoric beast,
a huge creature
with skin of armor. This image is
not
surprising,
since
these
intelligent
and
affectionate
creatures have inhabited the Earth
for 60 million years.
An extinct species of rhino that
lived
in
Mongolia,
(Baluchitherium grangeri), was the
largest land mammal of all time.
This hornless rhinoceros stood
18 feet (five and one-half meters)
at the shoulder, was 27 feet (eight
meters) long, and probably
weighed 25 tons (23 metric tons),
four times as much as today's
African bull elephant.
The Javan and Sumatran rhinos
are near extinction. Indian rhinos
may be coming back from the
brink. Of the two African species,
the white rhino has rebounded
from near extinction. (Contrary to
its name, the white rhino is not
really white. Its name is a
mistaken translation of the Dutch
word "wijde," which means "wide"
and refers to the rhino's broad,
square lips.)
This species probably died out
because of climate change.
The black rhino has not fared so
well. As recently as 1970, an
estimated 65,000 black rhinos
could be found throughout subSaharan Africa. But in eastern
Africa, 90 percent of them were
killed in the 1970s. Now there are
fewer than 2,500 left, in pockets in
Zimbabwe, South Africa, Kenya,
Namibia, and Tanzania.
The rhino may be the source of
the belief in unicorns, legendary
animals whose horn was said to be
a panacea for all types of ailments.
In 1298, the Venetian explorer
Marco Polo described Sumatran
rhinos as unicorns saying:
There are wild elephants in the
country, and numerous unicorns,
which are very nearly as big. They
have hair like that of a buffalo, feet
like those of an elephant, and a
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
These beautiful giant pandas are
Pandas now live in a few very
noted for their black and white
select parts of China where the
markings. Their legs, shoulders,
bamboo, their favorite food, and
ears and circular patches around
evergreen trees are thick. Pandas
their eyes are black; the remainder
once roamed large areas in China,
of the panda is white.
but as the human population has
increased, the area in which a panda
escape
can live has decreased. Pandas are
predators by climbing trees, a skill
very solitary animals, and do not
at which they are very good.
venture
However, pandas may also choose to
humans live.
Pandas
usually
try
to
into
the
areas
where
swim away from predators.
Why Are Pandas Endangered?
Full-grown pandas typically weigh
Pandas have become endangered
between 200 and 300 pounds, and
for two main reasons. First, the area
can often reach lengths of 6 feet.
in which they can safely live has
The average lifespan of a panda in
shrunk. Second, they are often
the wild is unknown, as they are
hunted for their pelts, which can go
very secretive creatures. However,
for thousands of dollars on the
in captivity, pandas usually live to
black market.
be 20 years old.
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The New York Times
18th May 2050
sustained rate of
decline of 3% per
year, temperatures
are likely to rise to
1.7 °C above preindustrial levels by
2050 and to around
2 °C by 2100. This
is because carbon
dioxide already in
the atmosphere will
be around for many
years to come and
the climate takes some time to respond to
these changes. Only an early and rapid
decline in emissions gets anywhere close
to the target of 50% reduction in emissions
by 2050 put forward by the G8.
Temperature
rises
Historical
Background
In
2008
the
following scenarios
were predicted:
Dr Jason Lowe and
other colleagues at
the Met Office
conducted a series
of 'what if' climate projections, to give a
better understanding of the temperature
rises we could expect if action on reducing
greenhouse gas emissions is slow or
delayed.
In the first scenario, emissions continue to
rise throughout the century. In the other
scenarios, emission reductions have been
imposed at various times and at various
rates.
In the most optimistic scenario, emissions
start to decrease in 2010, and reductions
quickly reach 3% per year. This contrasts
sharply with current trends, where the
world's overall emissions are increasing at
1% per year - faster than even the worst
cases used in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions
scenarios.
Contrast that with a world where no action
is taken to curb global warming. Then,
temperatures are likely to rise by 5.5 °C
and could rise as high as 7 °C above preindustrial values by the end of the century.
This would lead to significant risks of
severe and irreversible impacts.
What is very clear is that some increase in
temperature is inevitable in the next
century, and that the decisions and actions
that the world takes now will have a
profound impact on the climate later this
century.
Dr Lowe's two other scenarios are also
significant. The consequences of a late
decline in emissions are apparent by 2050.
Delaying reduction of emissions until
2030, results in a further 0.5 °C of
warming by 2050 compared with early, if
Even if emissions start to decrease in the
next two years and reach a rapid and
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The New York Times
slow, reduction from 2010. By the end of
the century the differences are even greater
- more than 1 °C.
18th May 2050
them have to be evacuated! These people
emmigrated to Russia, North China and
also in the poor country Mongolia. So the
following problems of this moving of
people are wide and fatal:
The consequences of an early but slow
decline in emissions of 1% per year,
compared with a rapid decline, appear to
be small in 2050. However, they increase
to 0.8 °C by the end of the century.
Overall, a delayed and slow decline in
emissions would probably lead to nearly 2
°C more warming than an early and rapid
decline in global emissions - a total
temperature rise of 4 °C above preindustrial levels.
Too many people are living in a small area
already and the terms and conditions under
which they are living are very bad. There is
a shortage on every of goods especially
food and clear and healthy drinking water.
In underdeveloped countries several
millions of people died and a new world
war started because of the shortage of
clean water and edible food. .Now the half
of the worlds population is exterminated as
a consequence of these wars which lasted
from 2041 to 2046.
The reality today
The temperature increased about 6 °C.
Much more than expected. In the year
2008 Dr. Jason Lowe estimated, that the
temperature will increase around 1,8 °C in
the year 2050. The emissions are still too
high and the outcome of the high emissions
are alarming.
Popular tourist resorts like the Maldives
dissapeared
already
in
the
2020’s.
Another fact is that the speed of the gulf
stream slowed down and we expect a new
Ice Age for Canada and Northern and
Middle Europe within the next 20 years
which will increase overpopulation in
already crowded areas even more.
Many countries are underwater since 2040
like the Netherlands, Bangladesh, the
Metropole New York, South Britain and
London and the overpopulated City of
Shanghai. Bandaglesh, together with
Shanghai has a high number of inhabitants,
exactly over 100 million people. All of
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The New York Times
.This newspaper was produced by students
of the COMENIUS project „Make a
Difference – European Footprint on our
World” during students’ meeting in Xantus
Janos School, Budapest (Hungary) in May
2009 and in Urspringschule Schelklingen
(Germany) in June 2009. The participants
came from Hungary, Germany and Italy.
This newspaper is the worst case scenario
which might come true if people don’t
change their attitude towards climate
change.
Urspringschule 17th June 2009
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18th May 2050