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AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report
Anniversary, DC 2015
The Global Imprint of
Warming on Life
Camille Parmesan
Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England
Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin
High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses
of Recent Changes in Biological Systems
Study
N: species +
functional
groupings
% Changing:
distribution/
phenology
% changes
consistent with
Climate Change
Parmesan &
Yohe Nature
2003
1598
59 %
84 %
Root et al.
Nature 2003
1468
40 %
82.3 %
Root et al. PNAS
2005
145
-
92 %
Rosenzweig et
al Nature 2008
55 studies
-
90 %
Poloczanska et
al. Nature
Climate Change
2013
857
76 %
83 %
Trends in Land and Ocean
Temperatures – past 50 years
Temperature change 1960-2009 (°C/decade)
Burrows et al.Science 2011
Velocity of Temperature
Shifts in Space
km/decade
geographic
shifts of
isotherms
slow
moderate
fast
Rate of change in locations of temperature isotherms in
past 50 years 1960-2009 (km/decade)
Burrows et al. Science 2011
Species Shifting into Historically Cooler
L a n d s a n d Wa t e r s
Te r r e s t r i a l :
m e a n s h i f t = 4 & 11 m i / d e c a d e
(2 meta-analyses)
Purple emperor
Butterflies > 124 miles in 5 yrs
Marine:
mean shift = 47 mi/decade
(1 meta-analysis)
bony fish: >124 mi/dec
diatom ~250 mi/dec
Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol
Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999
Atlantic
cod
Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC)
Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts:
• Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks
Burrows et al. Nature 2014
Stable
“Refugia”
Movement Into
“Species Gains”
Net Outflow
“Species Loss”
Inflow & Termination
“Sinks”
Mild Sink
Non-moving
Corridors
Strong Sources
Strong Sink
Slow moving
Convergence
Mild Sources
Sink & Barrier
Northward expansion of A iris:
* Baltic was barrier (lag of 10-20 years)
* Rapid expansion after arrival in FN & SW
* B o t h c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c t e d b y Vo C C
2 independent invasions
Purple emperor
(Apatura iris)
P Schappert
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm.
Mountaintop species going
extinct at lowest elevations
white lemuroid possum , Australia
pika, USA & Nepal
apollo, Europe & Nepal
S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)
S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)
Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster
than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0)
• Nearly ¾ of plants in long-term UK dataset
are driven only by spring temperatures
• Wa r m e r s p r i n g s c a u s e a d v a n c e d f l o w e r i n g
Observed changes in timing of first flowering
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
• For species that require winter chilling:
• Winter warming causes delay
• Spring warming causes advancement
• Observed changes are sum of two
opposing drivers
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
red maple
only respond to spring
warming:
flowering earlier
creeping phlox
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
mock strawberry
spring advance +
winter delay =
little change
dandelion
Precipitation can be stronger
driver than temperature
• California study – 64 plant species
• censuses in 1930s and 2000s
• 72 % of plants shifted downslope:
o 269 ft. on average
• Te m p e r a t u r e s i n c r e a s e d :
o + 1.2°F (mean annual)
• Rain & snow increased across
northern half of CA
• Downward expansions followed
increased water availability
Crimmins et al. Science 2011
California
Change in
total annual
precipitation
(mm):
time periods
1920 - 1949
vs
1976 - 2005
150
0
-100
Mountain hemlock
expanded 837 ft
downhill
in California
Since 1930s
temperature
5°F
water deficit
5.3 in.
Photo: Charles Webber,
California Academy of Sciences
Summary – responses of wild species to
0.7°C global increase since 1900
• ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward
(50 - 1600 km) and/or upward (up to 400 m)
• ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards
earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming….
• Every major group studied has been affected
• trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians,
corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton
• New research documents complex responses prior studies of proportion of species
impacted by climate change are underestimates
Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013;
Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press
All plants were equally sensitive to spring
warming, but differing responses to winter
warming drove differences in observed shifts
in timing of flowering
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012