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Doug Drake comments - Feb 29, 2008
My perspective on salmon and climate change comes from a broader knowledge base that has
been informed by a regulatory framework. Much of the focus of my agency’s work has
centered on appropriate temperature standards that need to be in place to protect the more
sensitive ecological uses (i.e., salmonid spawning, rearing, migration). The monitoring work
that our agency does is largely in support of the goal of determining whether or not these
standards are being met. If these criteria are not met, it is our charge to develop management
targets (TMDLs) for various designated management agencies (DMAs) to achieve in order to
meet these targets.
Much of the monitoring design we implement has been developed by the EPA Corvallis
group and consists of relatively active use of the GRTS sampling scheme (Phil Larsen’s
knowledge base does good job of capturing this work). While we have utilized the EPA
program it has suffered from resource constraints (see Jeff Rodger’s comments), and differing
emphasis what the goals of our monitoring should be. I put this out there as a likely user of
the kind of monitoring this particular project will put forth. I think Jeff’s thoughts are right on
target and parallel our experience – a more practical, easily implemented (and understood by
managers & the lay public) approach will be much more likely to get funding and long term
support.
To the extent that it is possible keeping it simple is a good rule of thumb, even for such a
complicated question as the effects of climate on salmon. To that end my interests are
recognizing the potential confounding variables that exist when it comes to salmon (ocean vs.
freshwater effects, etc.) that my agency, over time, will be forced to address. This generally
translates to land use and watershed level impacts on the freshwater side of the equation.
This will be important to bear in mind as we work through the kinds of questions we need to
answer, as well as what sampling methods and designs will work into the future.
Below are some highlights of the recent lit review I did as part of a Draft Environmental
Impact Statement for Western Oregon. My review concerned the potential impacts of a new
management strategy to replace aspects of the existing NW Forest Plan. It centered on
temperature, but because climate change was recognized as an important future condition, I
looked at some of the large scale models and assessments that have been done that dealt with
climate change and ecological effects. A lot of this was identifying how climate change may
affect the modeling assumptions especially as it relates to magnitude and duration of
hydrological effects (due to temperature, precipitation, etc.) and fire resiliency.
There are available reviews and meta-analyses such as Walther et al 2002, Root et al 2003,
Poff et al 2002, Mosheni et al 2003, Parmesan 2006 that summarize ecological effects. There
are also some papers related to habitat loss to cold water species, species replacement, and
range shifts due to climate change. See Bilby et al 2007, Daufresne et al 2003, Rahel et al
1996, Moore et al 1997. Some of the recent research has suggested that:


For nine species of native coldwater fish (including PNW salmon and trout) in the
continental United States, up to 30 to 40% of fish thermal habitat would be lost in under a
high (2x) CO2 climate change scenario (Mosheni et al 2003).
Changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation and runoff will alter hydrologic
characteristics of aquatic systems, affecting species composition and ecosystem
productivity. Populations of aquatic organisms are sensitive to changes in the frequency,
duration, and timing of extreme precipitation events, such as floods or droughts. Changes

in the seasonal timing of snowmelt will alter stream flows, potentially interfering with the
reproduction of many aquatic species (Poff et al 2002).
Increases in water temperatures as a result of climate change will alter fundamental
ecological processes and the geographic distribution of aquatic species. The success with
which species can move across the landscape will depend on dispersal corridors, which
vary regionally but are generally restricted by human activities. Fish in lowland streams
and rivers that lack northward connections and species that require cool water (e.g., trout
and salmon), are likely to be the most severely affected (Poff et al 2002).
Doug Drake
Lower Willamette Basin Coordinator
NWR WQ - Oregon DEQ
2020 SW 4th Ave. Suite 400
Portland, OR 97201-4987
References
Bilby, R., S. Hanna, M. Healy, N. Huntly, S. Hurlbert, R.Lamberson, C. Levings, D.
Montgomery, W. Pearcy, T.P. Poe, and P. Smouse. 2007. Climate Change Impacts on
Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife. Independent Science Advisory Board.
Northwest Power and Conservation Council.
Daufresne, M., M.C. Roger, H. Capra, and N. Lamouroux. 2003. Long term changes within the
invertebrate and fish communities of the upper Rhone River: effects of climate factors.
Global Change Biol. 10:124-140.
Gallo, Kirsten, Steven H. Lanigan, Peter Eldred, Sean N. Gordon and Chris Moyer. 2005.
Northwest Forest Plan - the first 10 years (1994–2003): preliminary assessment of the
condition of watersheds. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-647. 133 pp. Pacific
Northwest Research Station, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service.
Portland, OR:
Moore, M.V., M.L. Pace, J.R. Mather, P.S. Murdoch, R.W. Howarth, C.L. Folt, C.Y. Chen, H.F.
Hemond, P.A. Flebbe, and C.T. Driscoll. 1997. Potential effects of climate change on
freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic region. Hydrol. Proc. 11:925947.
Mosheni, O. H.G. Stephan, and J.G. Eaton. 2003. Global warming and the potential changes in
fish habitat in U.S. streams. Climate Change 59:389-409.
Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts
across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.
Peck, D. V., A. T. Herlihy, B. H. Hill, R. M. Hughes, P. R. Kaufmann, D. Klemm, J. M.
Lazorchak, F. H. McCormick, S. A. Peterson, P. L. Ringold, T. Magee, and M. Cappaert.
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program-Surface Waters Western Pilot
Study: Field Operations Manual for Wadeable Streams. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/620/R-06/003, 2006.
Poff, L.N., M.M. Brinson, and J.W. Day, Jr. 2002. Aquatic Ecosystems and global climate
change: potential impacts on inland freshwater and coastal wetland ecosystems in the
United States. Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. 44pp.
Rahel, F.J., C.J. Keleher, and J.L. Anderson. 1996. Potential habitat loss and population
fragmentation for coldwater fish in the North Platte River drainage of the Rocky
Mountains: response to climate warming. Limnol. and Oceanogr. 41(5):1116-1123.
Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, and J.A. Pounds. 2003.
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60.
Walther, G.R., E. Post, P. Convey, A. Menzel, C. Parmesan, T.J.C. Beebee, J.M. Fromentin, O.
Hoegh-Guldberg, and F. Bairlein. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Nature 416:389-395.