Download Background Note for Preparation of New Common Development

Background Note for Preparation of New Common Development Plan (CDP)
1. Introduction:
The UN Kosovo Team has initiated a process of development for the next UN Common Development
Plan (CDP) which will focus and harmonize the work of the UN Organizations in Kosovo over the next
five years. The references from the UN Development Group (UNDG) point out that discussions for the
drafting of new UN Development Assistance Frameworks (UNDAF)/Common Development Plans
(CDP) should commence by assessing the situation in which country/territory is in relation to the
standards set in the Millennium Declaration (MDGs) with clear focus on MDGs and other international
agreed development goals to determine where a development problem exists and its intensity/severity as
well as by describing the situation of different groups that are more unfavourably affected by poverty and
other development outcomes i.e. women, minorities, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities,
migrants and displaced persons etc.
The objective of this background note in particular is to shed light on these initial requirements of the
UNDG and in this way facilitate the early discussions among UN Organizations in preparing the new
CDP for the period of 2015-2020. This note is organized into four sub-sections. Sub-section two explains
the situation in Kosovo in relation to the standards set in the Millennium Declaration (MDGs). Subsection three provides some information on how different groups are affected from various development
outcomes and finally sub-section four presents some key conclusions gathered from current CDP
Monitoring and Evaluation Plan highlighting some key strength and gaps about UN Organizations’
contributions.
2. Status of the MDG and Human Development Indicators
Economic growth: Economic growth is the most powerful instrument for reducing poverty and improving
standards of living. The economy in Kosovo grew at different paces during last ten years. The Kosovo
economy grew at a very high average rate of 6.3 percent per annum between 2006 and 2008, but it has
not been able to sustain such a high growth rate starting from 2009 (in the wake of economic downturn)
up until now. During the 2009-2013 period, the Kosovo economy grew at a much lower pace - at an
average rate of 3.3 percent per annum. The main contributors to this economic growth also changed after
the 2009 period. While before, the main contributor of this growth was the private sector (consumption
and investment), in the period after the global crisis, the economic growth rate was backed primarily by
the growing government expenditures rather than by private sector investment and consumption.
However, in countries with growing populations, increases in human welfare and standards of living is
better measured with real GDP per capita growth and not by real GDP growth because it takes into
account the ability of a nation to expand its output at a rate faster than the growth of its population.
When economic growth is measured with real GDP per capita, economic growth rates further decline.
Income in Kosovo, when the population growth rate is taking into account, declines to 4.8 percent per
annum during the period 2006 – 2008 and 1.8 percent per annum during the period from 2009 to 2013. At
this latest pace (1.8 percent per annum), incomes in Kosovo will double every 39 years allowing the next
generation to enjoy a level of living standards that is twice as high as the previous generations. Thus, in
1
order to reach the current level of incomes of Montenegro, with the current growth pace of 1.8 percent per
annum, Kosovan citizens will have to wait another 39 years.
Table 1: Average economic growth rate
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.4
8.3
7.2
3.5
3.2
Real GDP
growth
rate, (%)
1.9
6.8
5.7
2
1.7
Real GDP
per capita
growth rate
(%)
Source: KAS, National Accounts and IMF
2012 2013
4.4
2.5
2.9
Average
growth rates,
(%) between
2006-2008
6.3
2.9
1
1.4
4.8
Average
growth rates,
(%) between
2009-2013
3.3
1.8
The current growth pace and pattern of this growth (which was based on government spending and
private consumption fuelled also by remittances and non–productive private investment such as
construction) is also not sufficient to translate into significant changes in other development indicators
such as rapid improvements in unemployment and poverty rates, or to achieve better education and health
outcomes. Less than 2 per cent growth in per capita GDP is not a guarantee of 2 per cent annual growth in
per capita personal consumption which is required for a reduction in poverty, since in addition to
individuals, there are other claimants to GDP, e.g., business and government. Experiences in other
countries too show that 2 per cent growth in per capita GDP translates to a minimum of 1 per cent annual
growth in per capita personal consumption. This would barely prevent an increase in poverty if there is
more than a very modest increase in inequality.
Poverty: Income poverty remains persistent and widespread based on the latest available data. A report
produced by the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) on Consumption Poverty found that in 2011 about
30 percent of the population in Kosovo was poor1 unable to meet human needs and 10 percent was
extremely poor2 unable even to meet basic survival needs. These poverty rates are very high compared to
neighbouring countries and have not significantly changed when compared to previous years. The reports
from the World Bank and UNDP also identify that poverty and vulnerability levels would be much
higher without the safety net provided through migration and remittances.3 On the other hand, the poverty
gap which measures the ‘depth’ of poverty - and takes into account both the percentage of the population
below the poverty line as well as the size of the gap between the poverty line and the average
consumption of those below the poverty line has been slightly decreased. From 2009 to 2011 the depth of
poverty based on the full poverty line declined from 9.6% to 7.8%. A similar trend characterises changes
in the extreme poverty gap. From 2009 to 2011 the extreme poverty gap declined from 3% to 2.1%. This
1
Living below the poverty line of Euro 1.72 per adult equivalent per day in 2002 prices
Living below the extreme (food) poverty line of Euro 1.20 per day in 2002 prices
3 See for example KAS & UNDP, Study on Remmitances in Kosovo, 2013
2
2
implies the shallowness of the poverty and the amount of money needed to bring the population out of
extreme and absolute poverty.
Unemployment: Similar to poverty, the labour market outcomes also remained unchanged. In 2012
approximately 31 percent of the labour force is estimated to be unemployed.4 The measures of labour
resources utilisation such as the labour force participation rate5 and employment rate6 are the lowest in the
Western Balkan region (36.9% and 25.5% respectively) and far lower than average EU figures. In
Particular, the same measures for women are extremely low (respectively 17.8% and 10.7%). Indeed,
Kosovo has not succeeded in raising the share of the population that is employed and offer an adequate
level of employment opportunities. Employment-to-population ratios have therefore stayed nearly
unchanged during the last decade. The same data indicates that in fact that more than 60 percent of the
working age population in Kosovo was inactive in 2012, to a large extent demonstrating a high incidence
of worker discouragement due to the poor performance of the economy. The same inactivity and
instruction of a new methodology applied are the reasons behind the recent decrease of the unemployment
rate, since this decrease was not realized as a result of an increase in the employment rate.
Figure 1: Key labour market outcomes for Kosovo
70
60
employment
rate
50
40
unemployme
nt rate
30
20
Inactivity
rate
10
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2012
Source: KAS, Labour Force Surveys
Figure 2: Labour market outcomes for Kosovo and other countries in the Western Balkans
70
60
Employ
ment
rates
50
40
30
Unemp
loymen
t Rates
20
10
0
EU 27
CRO
MNG
MAC
SER
ALB
B&H
KOS
4
KAS, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013
Employment and unemployment to working age of population ratio.
6 Employment to working age population ratio.
5
3
Source: Labour Force Surveys
Education: Human capital and its rate of growth is important to economic success, as it is essential for a
satisfying and rewarding human lives, as well as being fundamental to the broader notion of expanded
human capabilities that lie at the heart of the meaning of development. Most human capital is built up
through education or training.
In the education sector, there has been a steady growth in the total number of students attending
secondary and especially in tertiary education. Gross enrolment in upper secondary education (general
and VET) in 2011/12 was 92 percent and 5 percentage points higher from what was realized in 2009/10.7
Compared to other regional countries, the gross enrolment rate of 92 percent in Kosovo is much higher
than many regional countries such as Croatia with 87 percent, Bosnia& Herzegovina 86 percent, Serbia
86 and Macedonia with 78 percent.8 Similarly, there has been a steady growth in the total number of
students attending tertiary education in Kosovo due to the increasing number of private as well as public
higher education institutions and a limited number of employment opportunities. The enrolment rate in
tertiary education in 2010/2011 is estimated to be around 57 percent if it is compared to full population of
18 year of age and 67% compared to those who graduated from upper secondary schools and that had a
right to pursue tertiary education.9
On the other hand, the percentage of students that dropped out from the upper-secondary education is also
in decreasing trend. By the end of the school year 2011/2012 drop-out rates from upper secondary schools
was 2.5% while the same figure was 3.1 percent by the end of school year 2009/2010.10 Similarly, literacy
rates are higher than many developing countries and similar to the average rate for Eastern Europe and
Central Asia.11
There is very limited information on what students are learning or what are the skills acquired from the
education and training system, because crucial information is not available.12 Some studies, even though
they are not regularly conducted, highlight both quality13 and relevance issues and challenges in the
education system at different levels. The World Bank Survey (BEEPS) for Kosovo indicated that 45 of
the businesses feel that the education and training of workers is inadequate and is a major or severe
constraint for their business. Furthermore, the UNDP Survey for Human Development Report indicated
that the skills and education of available workers is more of a problem for medium and small enterprises
rather than for micro enterprises (see table 2)
7
See for example MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 page 69-70
Ibid page 71
9 However, these enrolment rates for tertiary education are a bit inflated since not all first time-enrolled students are comprised
from newly graduates of upper secondary schools.
10 MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013
11 Illiteracy rate in Kosovo is 3.8% among them 80 women.
12 Data gaps exist at both input as well as at output and outcome level for the education and training system. There are no
systematically collected and disseminated data with regard to number of students who enroll in private higher education
providers and education and training received by private (including NGOs) non-formal education and training providers (in terms
of participation rates and hours of training). Neither data exists on learning outputs i.e., what students are learning nor on
employment outcomes, whether they are working and what jobs they are doing. There are no functional international assessments
in place, such as: PISA, PIRLS, TIMSS to measure skills competencies provided by providers for different level of education
13 Note that neither the number of students enrolled at a level of study nor the amount of resources invested in education can
indicate the quality of education.
8
4
Table 2: Business perception of skills
Micro
Percentage of firms that consider the skills 37.4
and education of available of workers as a
barrier to their business
Source: Calculated from Human Development Survey, 2011
Small
46.7
Medium
60.7
Moreover, the results from the Baseline Study organized by GIZ and Chamber of Commerce with limited
number of enterprises on carpentry, construction, and the metal sectors emphasised that Vocational
Schools and Vocational Training Centre graduates do not understand and apply the basic mathematical
and physical operations required to perform their job, neither are they able to analyse and solve problems
using the logical, intuitive and creative thinking, indicating a lack of cognitive skills.
Differences in public spending on education (relative to GDP) across countries reflect differences in
government efforts to increase national stocks of human capital. Kosovo’s government devotes about
4.8% of its GDP to education. This share is similar to middle-income counties, but is smaller compared
to high-income countries, which allocate around 6% of their GDP to education.
Health: With regard to overall health conditions, measured with life expectancy at birth14 and the under-5
mortality rate15, these show much poorer results in Kosovo compared to any other country in the region.
The life expectancy at birth is about 70 years in Kosovo, 9 years lower than Albania, 5 years lower then
Macedonia and Serbia and 11 years lower than the EU average.16 Under - 5 mortality rate per live 1,000
births in 2011 was 13. This is the double the figure compared with those in EU countries, where the
average under- 5 mortality rate is 6 per 1,000 live births. Similarly, maternal mortality rates are higher in
Kosovo compared to other regional countries. While the maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births is
16.6 in Kosovo, the same rate from the regional countries for example in Macedonia, is 7, and this ratio in
the main European countries is 4.17
The prevalence of TB is also much more widespread in Kosovo compared to regional countries and the
EU. While in Albania the incidence of TB is 16 per 100,000 people, in Macedonia 18, and in main EU
countries is 8, in Kosovo the incidence of TB is 53 per 100,000 people. Naturally, the prevention is the
most effective public health measure. On the other hand, Kosovo is currently categorised in the group of
states with a low rate of HIV. The infection rate is below 1% of the general population and below 5
percent of all groups threatened by the growing risk of HIV.
The average level of public health expenditures in Kosovo is low compared to regional countries. It is
about 2.2 percent of the GDP in Kosovo compared with 3 percent in Albania, 4.5 percent in Macedonia, 6
percent in Serbia and an average 6 percent for high-income countries.18
14
indicates the number of years a newborn baby would live if health conditions prevailing at the time of its birth were to stay the
same throughout its life.
15 indicates the number of newborn babies who are likely to die before reaching age 5 per 1,000 live births
16 UNDP, Kosovo Human Development Report, 2012
17 Ministrie e Shendetesise, Statistikat Shendetesore per Nenet dhe Femijet, 2012. And World Bank Development Indicators
18 The World Bank Development Indicators
5
Clean water and sanitation also play a significant role in increasing life expectancies. Roughly 70% of
households have access to piped water from the public supply system, and around 71% have access to
public sewage systems.19 These figures are far below the regional countries with the exception of
Albania. The average figure for regional countries except Albania is 90% for piped water supply system
and 95 % for sewage systems.20
Environmental sustainability: Environmental pollution and degradation of natural resources affect
livelihood opportunities and poverty reduction, but also public health. The key environmental problems in
Kosovo include air pollution, water scarcity and pollution, and land degradation.
Air pollution is a critical environmental problem in urban areas, though less so for Kosovo as a whole.
Ambient air quality is particularly poor in Prishtine/Pristina, the Obiliq/Obilic area, the Drenas area, and
Mitrovice/a. The principal sources of contaminants are sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides NO and
NO2 (NOx), ozone (O3), lead (Pb), carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM or dust), and dioxin.
The main sources are: Energy and mining, including the relatively old two coal-fired power plants of the
Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK) and its coal-mining area, wood and lignite for household heating,
industrial complexes, such as Mitrovica Industrial Park (Trepca), nickel mining and production in
Drenas/Gllogovc (Ferronikeli), and the cement factory in Hani Elexi (Sharrcem), and fossil fuels from
increased traffic and old vehicles. Some of these industrial sites have emissions above the Limits as per
EC Directive 2001/80/EC and Athens Memorandum.21 The yearly increase of emissions of all greenhouse
gases is about 10 percent.22 Compared to per capita terms, Kosovo has relatively low emissions in
comparison with other countries in Europe, (5.7 t CO2 equivalent per capita per annum in 2008)
However, the compared per unit of GDP (0,84 kg CO2 equivalent per EUR in 2008) greenhouse gas
emissions in Kosovo are much higher compared with other countries in Europe. Per capita emissions are
just over half of the EU average (9.93 t) and emissions per unit of GDP are almost double of those in the
EU average (0.4 kg/EUR).23
Over many years lead emissions have spread to air and water via lead and zinc mines and lead-processing
facilities, known as hotspots.24 Thus, Zvecan and northern Mitrovice/a are lead hotspots due to their lead
and zinc mines. Air emissions of lead have fallen dramatically since Zvecan’s smelter was shut, but lead
mines and their tailings still contaminate the air (windborne dust), water, and soil (runoff and dust
deposition). Similarly, the soil around Zvecan, still heavily contaminated by deposition of leaded
particles, is a major source of lead exposure.25 Lead is well known to impair neuropsychological
functioning in children, even at low levels of exposure since lead tends to accumulate in the organs and
19
KAS, Kosovo Census Atlas, 2011
WHO/UNICEF, Join Monitoring Programme for Water and Sanitation
21 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) stated that measurement of dust
emissions exceeded the amount of dust of what is being allowed (50mg/Nm3) in power plants and Sharcem and Ferronikel and
exceeded amount of NOx were also recorded in power plants.
22 School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate Analysis
23 Climate Change Framework Strategy (CCFS) for Kosovo
24 Release of lead to air is also possible by vehicles fueled by leaded gasoline and possibly other indoor exposure sources. This
exposure is likely higher in urban areas
25 The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis
20
6
blood. Kosovo Environmental Protection Agency (KEPA) has identified 110 polluted and contaminated
sites. Of these, 28 sites are considered high pollution potential and proposed as environmental Hotspots.
Kosovo is also facing both inadequate quality and quantity of its water resources. Chemical and
bacteriological monitoring shows that the majority of rivers in Kosovo are polluted.26 The National Public
Health Institute also has found that there are major bacterial residues in water supply systems especially
in small towns and unacceptable drinking water quality (mainly due to bacteriological residues) in public
water supply systems. The data from the National Institute of Health, also found that pollution in
drinking water from bacteriological contamination is greater than from chemical contamination.27
Kosovo also struggles with land degradation from unplanned extension of settlements, industrial and
sanitary landfills, and erosion. According to estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and
Rural Development (MAFRD) each year about 400 hectares of agricultural land is converted into
construction land. Furthermore, as regards to environmental hotspots (land with mining dumps with
concentration of heavy metals, agricultural waste, sanitary landfills hazardous industrial chemicals) it is
estimated that 0.09 km2 of Kosovo territory is covered with endangered environments.28 Parts of the
forests which cover roughly 44 percent of Kosovo’s territory are in bad condition due to inadequate
management and illegal logging, leading also to increased soil erosion and landslides. The costs of forest
degradation are estimated to be around 0.4 percent of GDP.29 The waste management system represents
one of the major environmental challenges. Services for municipal waste collection barely cover 50
percent of the population (in urban areas this goes up to 90 percent but in rural areas 10 percent). Most of
sanitary landfields are found to be operating under inappropriate conditions for collection, classification,
recycling, and treatment systems and lack proper waste management for virtually all solid waste types
(domestic, industrial, health care, and hazardous). These shortfalls cause serious health and environmental
impacts, either from uncontrolled or poorly controlled waste disposal facilities or (particularly in rural
areas) from the large amounts of waste simply uncollected, dumped at illegal dumpsites (often near rivers,
causing additional environmental hazards), or burned. Large volumes of coal ash (from the lignite-fired
power plants) and mining waste are also dumped each year, without any measures for recycling.30 The
annual cost of environmental degradation in Kosovo is estimated at around 5 percent of GDP.31
Finally, climate change is likely to enhance already existing climate variations. Exposure to hazards such
as droughts, floods, and forest fires will become greater following climate change. Projections for the
whole region indicate warmer temperatures and more irregularity in precipitation. Predicted consequences
of climate change are enhanced occurrences of heat waves, droughts and forest fires, as well as floods.
Therefore the climate change has a potential to jeopardize the livelihoods of those who rely on natural
26
Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) stated it was recorded an
increased value of ammonium ion parameter (NH2+/mg/l) from major rivers in Kosovo: An exceeded value of metal cooper is
recorded in Klina river, exceeded value of zinc in Sitnica river in Mitrovica, exceeded value of iron in river Graqank and in river
basin of Morava I Binqes; exceeded value of chromium, iron and zinc was recorded in river basin of Lepenci,.
27
The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis
28
Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012)
29
The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis
30 Ibid
31 Ibid: The World Bank estimates that Air pollution is responsible for the highest costs of environmental degradation in Kosovo.
Air pollution is estimated to cause 835 premature deaths, 310 new cases of chronic bronchitis, 600 hospital admissions and
11,600 emergency visits each year.
7
resources such as agriculture, forestry, and water resources, especially in rural areas, and increase the
vulnerability of those living in areas with risk of landslides and floods.32
3. How different groups are effected by poverty and other development outcomes
Poverty: Poverty in Kosovo is largely a rural phenomenon since two-thirds of the poor live in rural
areas affecting disproportionately large families,33 self-employed agricultural households, precarious job
holders (mainly ‘per diem’ workers) and those receiving social assistance beneficiaries. Although there is
not a complete overlap between unemployment and poverty,34 and the risk of poverty is higher for
subsistence farmers and per diem workers, the highest share of poor people are found among the
unemployed. KAS noted that nearly 30 percent of poor adults are actually unemployed. Poverty is closely
linked with education too. Less educated individuals tend to be poorer than more educated ones. More
than one third of individuals who did not complete primary education live in poor households.
Rural areas, in addition to being disproportionally deprived from income poverty, they also have a more
limited access to the piped water supply and sanitation compared to urban areas.35 Rural areas have about
200 water supply systems directly run by communities and villages, covering about 65 percent of the rural
population, though few of these systems are hygienic. Rural areas also face a higher risk of climate
change especially those who rely for their livelihoods on natural resources such as agriculture, forestry,
and water resources.
Women: Available data presents clear evidence of persistent gender inequality. Compared to men, women
in Kosovo are underrepresented in many political and decision making processes, have more limited
access to employment, and other income generating opportunities, and a greater violation of human rights
such as gender based violence.
Women remain underrepresented both quantitatively and qualitatively in decision-making processes at all
levels (see table below). The target of 40% representation defined by the law on gender equality for all
level of decision making has not yet been achieved.36 Women hold 33.3% of the seats in the Kosovo
Assembly (40 of 120 seats), on the other hand, 14 women were elected, while the quota enabled 24 to
receive their positions. Women remain under-represented among ministers, deputy ministers, and chairs
of assembly committees (see table below). Similarly, women are severely underrepresented in decisionmaking positions within municipalities; leading only 14 directorates in all of Kosovo (4.4%) and among
Kosovo’s public employees, 38% are women. At this level, there is one woman major in the
Gjakova/Djakovica municipality.
32
School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate Analysis
the highest poverty rate is found among households with eight members
34 Not all of the unemployed live in poor households, and not all of the employed are free from poverty.
35 World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis
36 Law on General Elections in the Re-public of Kosovo and the Law on Local Elections in Kosovo, which both still call for 30%
participation.
33
8
Table 3: Political participation disagregated based on gender
Female Male
Female
Presidents (ever)
1
5
National Assembly Members
40
Prime Ministers (ever)
0
6
Chairs of Assembly Committees
1
Deputy Prime Ministers
2
3
Mayors
1
Ministers
1
17
Municipal Directors of Directorates 4.4%
Deputy Ministers
1
34
Municipal Assembly Members
34%
Foreign Missions
6
16
Civil Service
38%
Source: Sweden Framework for Gender Equality: Country Gender Profile for Kosovo
Male
80
8
32
95.6%
66%
61%
On the other hand, no country in Europe has so few women participating in the labour market. Out of the
working age population (16-64) 18 percent of women participate in the labour market (compared to 55%
of men) while 82 percent are inactive. Despite lower activity rates, employment rates for women are
lower and unemployment rates higher. Only 10.7 percent of working age women is actually working
compared to 40% for men, while the unemployment rate is 40 percent for women and 28 percent for
men.37 Less than 10% of businesses are women-led or women-owned, and the female businesses are
smaller (women have on average 3.07 employees, compared to 5.27 among men-led businesses) and
cannot access credit and loans as men because they lack collateral. Thus, men hold about 92% of
collateral properties in Kosovo.38 Although the gap is decreasing, the gross enrolment rate in upper
secondary education is lower for women than for men (88% for women and 95 for men).39 Similarly,
women headedhouseholds appear to have a higher poverty rate than those households led by men (39.8
compared to 29).
Although the legal framework offers equality for men and women over property rights, in 2014 women
owned only 8% of property, including land ownership. During inheritance dissolution in the courts,
women often waive their right to inherit, giving their share of family property to their brothers. In 2011,
NGO Norma reported that out of 4,994 cases monitored in courts in five Kosovo regions, in only 487
cases (9.75%) did women and men receive equal inheritances.40
Furthermore, domestic violence appears to be widespread in Kosovo, and is a serious violation of
fundamental human rights. Several forms of gender-based violence (GBV) exist in Kosovo, including
violence against civilians during conflict, domestic violence etc. However, some forms of GBV impact
women and men differently. Domestic violence appears to be the most prevalent form of GBV,
particularly for women. Despite many improvements41 in the institutional framework to treat these cases,
in 2013 1,087 domestic violence cases reported to police, while 80% of the victims were women. Police
reports suggest that 91.1% of the perpetrators were men.42
37
ASK, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013
ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014
39
See for example MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 page 69-70
40 ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014
41 Kosovo’s legal framework pertaining to GBV is fairly comprehensive, and coordination among institutions has improved in
recent years, including with the appointment of a National Coordinator. Institutions, international actors, and CSOs have
undertaken several efforts towards prevention, including strategies of working with men and boys towards transforming gender
roles
42
ORGUT Consulting AB,Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014
38
9
Youth: Young people in Kosovo face many challenges and are therefore in need of particular attention.
Kosovo has the youngest population in Europe. Young women and men under 25 years old make up
47.3% of the population. Of these, 19.3% are aged between 15 and 24 years43 comprising about 30% of
the working-age population. This youthful age distribution will inevitably lead to a further expansion of
the labour force. It is estimated that in the next five years, roughly 200,000 young people will reach
working age, while approximately 60.000 persons will reach retirement age in the same period. The
ongoing net growth in the labour supply will further increase the difficulty of young women and men
finding jobs in the years to come. At 43.5%, the youth unemployment rate is the highest among any
group in the working age population. The youth unemployment rate in Kosovo is twice as high as the
average for the European Union.44 In addition, young people in Kosovo currently face a very long
transition period from school to work. The World Bank reports that it takes about 10 years for young
males to transition from school to work in Kosovo, while in Macedonia it takes four to five years, and in
developed countries it takes an average of about 1.4 years.45 Furhermore, 35.1% of the young people were
totally disconnected from the labour market maining that they were not in education, employment or
training. High shares of this group in the youth population raise concerns about the future employability
of young people Youth is a crucial time of life and international evidence shows that long spells of
inactivity during the years of one’s youth have long-term socio-economic costs. Studies show that high
youth unemployment rates tend to be associated with increased crime and social instability.46
The Kosovo Youth strategy also indicates that youth participation in decision making processes and their
influence in many important fields of their life is very low, even symbolic, Many are pessimistic about the
future, and find their living standards “mediocre” at best. A recent survey conducted by UNDP indicates
that about 47% of the youth responders would migrate due to economic hardship. 47
Ethnic minorities: The Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian (RAE) communities continues to be the most
vulnerable in Kosovo. They face discrimination and various problems with regard to their education,
especially when referring to their integration into the system of education which in turn impedes their
inclusion in the society. Despite many efforts (MEST and OSCE have engaged for several years in
offering programs of catch-up classes for students who have left schools) there are still large numbers of
those who are either not included in education or drop out during school. According to the strategy for
integration of RAE communities, the illiteracy rate for RAE is 16 percent, while 75 percent of students
from RAE attend primary education, this rate drops significantly to 25 percent in secondary education,
while those who graduated from university education is 1.4 percent. Because of poverty, a lot of children
from these communities are made to leave school and engage in different jobs in efforts to help their
families. Having in mind that employment prospects are directly correlated with education attainment,
RAE community in this way is also disproportionately affected by poor employment opportunities. Many
surveys demonstrated that RAE, if employed, occupy primarily lower level positions.48 Data from surveys
on the ethnic structure of public companies in Kosovo demonstrate an unfavourable position of RAE
communities. Public enterprises employed only 0.43% RAE. Furthermore, a large number of RAE in
Kosovo lacks personal documentation that further complicates their ability to exercise their rights and
access services.
43
KAS, Kosovo Population and Housing Census 2011
The average EU youth unemployment rate was 23% in 2012
45 World Bank, Youth in Jeopardy: Being Young, Unemployed and Poor in Kosovo, 2008.
46See for example Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion (2003); Urdal (2004).
47 Calculated from the survey conducted in April 2012 for Public Pulse Report nr. 4
48 International Labour Organisation, Wage and Skills Survey of the (March 2006)
44
10
IDPs and Returnees: Although there is lack of accurate data on displaced persons in Kosovo, UNHCR
estimated that around 17,350 IDPs remained in Kosovo. The vast majority of K/Serbs and K/Albanians
who were displaced originate from places where they represented a minority, as well as significant
numbers from RAE communities. IDPs are often unable to access the full range of civil, political,
economic, social, and cultural rights in displacement. The effective exercise of property rights is difficult.
According to UNHCR and Ministry for Communities and Return (MCR), a significant number of IDPs
still live in collective centres, without having proper access to essential services such as education, health
care, and social benefits.
A considerable number of refugees also started to return to Kosovo. In Kosovo about 1000 people are
returning voluntarily per annum as reported by MCR. The various report findings revealed that DPs
during the return process face many challenges such as a lack of infrastructure, access to the labour
market as well as institutional support. Furthermore, failed asylum seekers are being forcefully returned to
Kosovo from Western Europe. It is expected that in the near a future, considerable numbers will be
(forcefully) returned from Western European countries, but also from countries such as Montenegro, and
Macedonia. This return creates additional responsibilities for both the central government and the
municipal authorities; a mass-scale return to Kosovo would even overburden the institutional capacities of
institutions and society in Kosovo.
4. Key achievements and Gaps from current UN Common Development Plan (CDP)
The UNKT undertook an M&E for CDP which captured achievements and gaps during the three years of
CDP implementation. Based on the M&E, significant achievements have been realized at the output
levels: Under outcome 1 of the CDP, significant progress has been achieved in supporting Ministries and
the Assembly in drafting laws, sub-legal acts and strategies for social inclusion. With the technical and
financial support of UNKT, 33 laws, 27 sub-legal acts, and 21 strategies have been developed49 in areas
such as public services, health, housing, education and vocational training, family planning, social justice
and employment. Furthermore, most of these laws, sub legal acts and strategies has also been adopted
and promulgated by the relevant institutions, which is another success of the UNKT. Similarly, under
outcome 2 of the CDP, significant progress has been achieved in supporting KAS and Ministries to
produce reports and Management Information System (MIS) which depicts the relative position of
vulnerable groups. About 30 reports have been prepared with technical and financial support from UNKT
and 7 MIS systems have been developed to provide data at any point of time disaggregated by gender
and key vulnerable groups. Furthermore, public institutions have been supported with a significant
amount of training and practices by the UNKT to increase their the accountability and responsiveness.
Within social justice, there is some strong evidence about success achieved, there is a significant increase
in the number of people receiving legal assistance/aid or number of cases referred to mediation as an
alternative dispute resolution mechanism including those from vulnerable groups. On the other hand, in
relation to engagement with civil Society (outcome 2.2 of the CDP), many capacity development
49
Out of which 5 laws and 7 strategies jointly
11
initiatives have been undertaken by UNKT with CSO and vulnerable groups to initiate advocacy
actions.50
At the local level, (outcome 3.1 of the CDP), UNKT has achieved significant progress in supporting
municipalities in developing action plans, establishing consultative processes, piloting joint actions for
addressing the needs of vulnerable groups including women, and implementing capital investment
projects.51 Furthermore, under outcome 4.1 of the CDP, many municipalities have been supported in
developing action plans on local environmental disaster risks, and the reduction and protection of natural
resources. Finally, UNKT under outcome 4.2 of CDP has supported CSOs and local communities to
undertake many public awareness raising campaigns, local community sessions, and advocacy actions in
order to influence communities and individuals to make more responsible choices for the environment
and healthier lifestyles.52
Despite these achievements, M&E framework provides little evidence of what the ‘uptake’ was behavioral or practice changes of duty bearers and right holders- and the sustainability and impact of
these supportive initiatives. For example, how many of these promulgated laws, sub legal acts, and
strategies for social inclusion under outcome 1 have been implemented, and more importantly how have
the lives of different groups been influenced due to these laws, sub legal acts and strategies? Is the
information and evidence generated by reports under outcome 2.1. used to inform decision making, and
how effective were the many capacity development initiatives that have been undertaken by UNKT with
CSO and vulnerable groups to initiate advocacy actions? As with outcome 1, more evidence is needed
also local level i.e. what is the uptake and sustainability of these initiatives undertaken at local level or
whether and to what extent these action plans have been implemented or are the mechanisms being
supported functionally after the output is delivered etc.
As a result, during the formulation of the next CDP, increased attention should be given to the
formulation of results where UN entities will contribute by ‘joint efforts’. The formulation of the results
should also capture capacity and performance improvements of the right-holders as well as duty bearers.
These results should be then translated into a proper statements of output, outcomes, impacts and goals.
Furthermore, each level of results should have performance indicators, baselines and targets which are
relevant to the result, and which can be monitored regularly. For this to happen, UN entities should have a
common understanding regarding the definitions and terminologies on the results chain as well as on
performance indicators.
50
44 different advocacy actions were organized by CSO, 9 civic consultations with vulnerable groups and 5 women centered
dialogue sessions with technical and financial support of UNKT
51 19 municipalities have been supported with developing action plans, 16 municipalities with establishing consultative processes.
Furthermore, 10 joint initiatives were piloted at the local level for addressing the needs of vulnerable groups including women
and municipalities were supported with 124 capital projects.
52 33 public awareness raising campaigns, 60 local community sessions were organized with support of UNKT as well as 9
advocacy actions by CSO on environmental issues.
12
Annex 1: MDG and HD Indicators which will be used in context analysis of the new CDP
MDG
Indicators
Real GDP growth rate,
(%)
Real GDP per capita
growth rate (%)
Poverty
Percentage of
population below the
absolute poverty
line
Percentage of
population below the
extreme poverty
line
Poverty gap ratio
[incidence x depth of
poverty]
Prevalence of
underweight children
under 5 years of age
Percentage of poor
children within the total
population of children
Unemployment
Labour force
participation rate
Employment rate,
Unemployment rate
KAS National
Accounts, IMF
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3.5
3.2
4.4
2.5
2.9
2
1.7
2.9
1
1.4
MGD Goal 1.
KAS, Consumption
Poverty 2011 and
2010
34.5%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
29.2%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
29.7%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
MGD Goal 1.
KAS, Consumption
Poverty 2011 and
2010
12.5%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
8.2%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
10.2%
(P.C, 2011, p.3)
MGD Goal 1.
KAS, Consumption
Poverty 2011 and
2010
X
Absolute pov: 9.6
Exteme pov: 2.8
p.4
NA
Absolute pov: 7.3
Exteme pov: 1.9
p.4
NA
Absolute pov: 7.5
Exteme pov: 2.1
p.4
NA
KAS, Consumption
Poverty 2011
38.6
(P.C, 2011, p.6)
32.5
(P.C, 2011, p.6)
32.8
(P.C, 2011, p.6)
LFS 2012 and LFS
2009
LFS 2012 and LFS
2009
48.1
(LFS, 2009, p.5)
26.4
(LFS, 2009, p.5)
NA
NA
NA
NA
LFS 2012 and LFS
2009
45.4
(LFS, 2009, p.5)
NA
NA
30.9
(LFS, 2012, p.10)
LFS 2012 and LFS
2009
51.9
(LFS, 2009, p.5)
NA
NA
63.1
(LFS, 2012, p.10)
Education Indicators,
MEST, 2009/2010,
2010/2011,
2011/2012
Education Indicators,
5.06
p.82
4.76
p.82
4.88
p.82
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
MGD Goal 1.
Kosovo MDG
Report target
2
Kosovo MDG
Report target
2
Inactivity rate
Education
Public expenditure on
education (% of GDP)
(%)
Primary school dropout
Info about the
indicators exists and
the source of info
KAS National
Accounts, IMF
Kosovo MDG
NA
NA
36.9
(LFS, 2012, p.10)
25.6
(LFS, 2012, p.10)
13
rates (% of primary
school cohort)
Report target
4
Secondary school
dropout rates (% of
secondary school
cohort)
Adult literacy rate, both
sexes (% aged 15 and
above)
Mean years of
schooling (of adults)
(years)
Gross enrolment in
education (%)
Kosovo MDG
Report target
4
MDG Goal 3
MEST, 2009/2010,
2010/2011,
2011/2012
Education Indicators,
MEST, 2009/2010,
2010/2011,
2011/2012
KAS, Census results
p.86
p.86
p.86
3.1%
p.86
2.9%
p.86
2.5%
p.86
3.8%
KHDR, 2014, 2012,
2010
Kosovo MDG
Report target
4
Health
Expenditure on health,
public (% of GDP) (%)
Education Indicators,
MEST, 2009/2010,
2010/2011,
2011/2012
11.4
p.30
68.6 (preprimary)
95.1 (primary)
99.8 (lower
secondary)
86.9 (upper
secondary)
(p.68-71)
71.2 (pre-primary)
98.1 (primary)
96.4 (lower
secondary)
91.7 (upper
secondary)
(p.68-71)
74 (pre-primary)
97.3 (primary)
100 (lower
secondary)
92.1 (upper
secondary)
(p.68-71)
2.4% including
Primary Health
Care (PHC)
2.4% including
PHC
1.7
2.4% including
PHC
2.2
2.5% including
PHC
14.5
Calculated
13
Ministrie e
Shendetesise,
Statistikat
Shendetesore per
Nenet dhe Femijet,
2012
KAS, Health Statistics
Ministry of Finance
and MoH calculations
TransMonEE (only
for 2011)
TMEE data,
11.2
p.10
Under-five mortality
(per 1,000 live births)
MDG Goal 4
Infant mortality rate
MGD Goal 4
TransMonEE (only
for 2011)
13.1
Perinatal mortality rate
Kosovo MDG
Report Target
6
14.9
Calculated
Proportion of 1 yearold children
immunized against
measles
Kosovo MDG
Report Target
7
TransMonEE (only
for 2011)
Perinatal Situation in
Kosovo 2012, MoH)
TransMonEE
2008-2012
19.3
94
19.1
96
17.87
96
2.9 including
PHC
16.26 per 1000
17.34
92
14
Life expectancy at birth
(years)
KHDR, 2012, 2010
Maternal mortality ratio
(deaths of women
per100,000 live births)
MDG Goal 5
Proportion of births
attended by skilled
health personnel
Contraceptive
prevalence rate
MDG Goal 5
Antenatal care
coverage
(at least on visit and at
least four visits)
Prevalence of HIV,
Kosovo MDG
Report Target
9
Proportion of
population aged 15-24
years with
comprehensive correct
knowledge of
HIV/AIDS
Prevalence of and death
rates associated with
tuberculoses
Proportion of
tuberculosis cases
detected and cured
under DOTS
Kosovo MDG
Report target
10
Gender
Ratio of girls and boys
in secondary and
tertiary education,
(Ratio of female to
male rates)
MDG Goal 6
TransMonEE (only
for 2011)
Perinatal Situation in
Kosovo 2012, MoH
TransMonEE (only
for 2012)
DHS 2009
MDG Goal 6
69.
p.30
76.5
Calculated
Population
Estimation 20112061, KAS
70
p.10
14.4
Calculated
10.5
7.2
7.2
16.2
79%
< 1% general
population
<5% key
population at risk
(MoH)
< 1% general
population
<5% key population
at risk (MoH)
< 1% general
population
<5% key
population at risk
(MoH)
< 1% general
population
<5% key population
at risk (MoH)
43.31
15% among
married women
15-49 years
MDG Goal 6
MoH
1.2/100,000
1.0/100,000
0.9/100,000
1.0/100,000
Not yet available
for Y2013
MDG Goal 6
TransMonEE (only
number of people
registered for 2012)
43 per 100,000
people cases
registered
Treatment
Success-90%
44 per 100,000
people cases
registered
Treatment Success91%
40 per 100,000
people cases
registered
Treatment
Success-91%
53 per 100,000
people cases
registered
51 per 100,000
people cases
registered
MDG Goal 3
Education Indicators,
MEST, 2009/2010,
2010/2011,
2011/2012
0.92 (primary and
lower secondary)
0.80 (Upper
secondary)
(E.D, MEST,
0.93 (primary and
lower secondary)
0.83 (Upper
secondary)
(E.D, MEST, p.29)
0.97 (primary and
lower secondary)
0.85 (Upper
secondary)
(E.D, MEST,
15
p.29)
Labour force
participation rate,
female-male ratio
(Ratio of female to
male shares)
Share of women in
wage employment in
the non-agricultural
sector
Shares in parliament,
female-male ratio
Proportion of seats held
by women in national
parliament
Environmental
Sustainability
Proportion of land area
covered by forest
LFS 2012, 2009
p.29)
28.8% female
compared to
67.5% male
p.5 (LFS, 2009,
p.5)
17.8% female
participation in
labor force
compared to 55.4%
of male
p.22 (LFS, 2012,
p.5)
MDG Goal 3
MDG Goal 3
MDG Goal 7
Ratio of area protected
to maintain biological
diversity to surface area
MGD Goal 7
Energy use (kg oil
equivalent) per $1 GDP
(PPP)
Carbon dioxide
emissions per capita
and consumption of
ozone-depleting CFCs
(ODP tons)
Proportion of
population using solid
fuels
Proportion of
population with
MGD Goal 7
MGD Goal 7
33%
MAFRD, Forestry
Statistics,
KAS 2012 (KAS
website)
33%
33%
33%
33%
44%
Decrease of 1% of
land areas covered
with forest
(approximately
4,000 ha)
99 protected areas
which cover
118,505 ha (11.4%
of territory of KS
Decrease of 1% of
land areas covered
with forest
(approximately
4,000 ha)
41%
Ministry of
Environment and
Spatial Planning,
Report on State of
Environment, 2011,12
Climate Change
Framework Strategy
(CCFS) for Kosovo
5.7 t CO2
MGD Goal 7
MGD Goal 7
Kosovo Census Atlas
2011
69.7% of
households have
16
sustainable access to an
improved water source,
urban and rural
Proportion of
population with access
to improved sanitation,
urban and rural
Proportion of
households with access
to secure tenure
MGD Goal 7
Socio-economic data
(Census, 2011, KAS)
MGD Goal 7
Population
Population, total both
sexes (thousands)
KAS, Census results
Population Estimation
2011-2061, (medium
version)
KAS, Census results
Population, urban (%)
(% of population)
Population growth rate
IT
Possession of fixed
phone, internet and PC
access to piped
water from public
supply system
71% of
households have
access to
sanitation system
(flush toilet
through public
and private)
(p.18)
1,780,021
1,793,745
1,805,853
38% are urban
(excluding three
northern area)
KAS, Census results
Kosovo MDG
Report target
16
Household budget
survey, 2012, (p.26)
Living conditions,
Census (KAS) p.16
66 % computer
60% internet (HBS,
2012, p.26)
21% have fixed
phone (L.C, 2012,
p.16)
17
18
References:
Government of Kosovo, Office of the Prime Minister, Strategy for the Integration of Roma, Ashkali and
Egyptian Communities in the Republic of Kosovo (2009 -2015)
Kosovo Agency for Statistics (KAS), National Accounts, Gross Dometic Product by expenditure
approach 2004-2012, 2013
Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), Consumption Poverty in Kosovo, in 2012, 2013
KAS, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013
KAS, Kosovo Census Atlas, 2011
KAS, Kosovo Population and Housing Census 2011
KAS & UNDP, Study on Remmitances in Kosovo, 2013
International Labour Organisation, Wage and Skills Survey of the (March 2006)
International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report for Kosovo,No. 13/379, 2013
MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013
Ministrie e Shendetesise, Statistikat Shendetesore per Nenet dhe Femijet, 2012
Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012)
Ministry of Envi ronment and Spat ial Planning, Climate Change Framework Strategy (CCFS) for
Kosovo
Ministry of Culture, Youth and Sport, The Kosovo Youth strategy (2013-2017)
Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, Strategy for the Integration of Roma, Ashkali and
Egyptian Communities (200-2017)
ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014
School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate
Analysis
UNDP: Kosovo Human Development Reports, 2012
World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis
World Bank, Youth in Jeopardy: Being Young, Unemployed and Poor in Kosovo, 2008
19