Download Helping Europe`s wildlife and ecosystems adapt to climate change

Helping Europe’s wildlife and
ecosystems adapt to climate change
Research and conservation challenges
Dr Nicholas Macgregor
Chair, ENCA Climate Change Group
ENCA Climate Change Group
• One of the interest groups of the Network of Heads
of European Nature Conservation Agencies (ENCA)
• Our group focuses on:
– Adaptation for the natural environment
– Using the natural environment to benefit people
(‘ecosystem-based adaptation’)
– Protecting natural carbon stores (‘ecosystembased mitigation’)
Ecosystem-based adaptation and
mitigation
• Report ‘Working with nature
to tackle climate change’
published in 2010
• Work to be continued in 2011
Adaptation in nature conservation
• We want to review adaptation for biodiversity and
ecosystems across Europe:
What conservation should be done in different
biogeographic areas and at different spatial
scales across Europe?
In those different places, how will conservation
need to change over time as climate change
intensifies?
• Starting point is to get an overview of the adaptation
work that is being done already
• We will collate, review and publish a collection of
practical case studies of adaptation for biodiversity
and ecosystems from across Europe
Climate change is already affecting
Europe’s natural environment
Species are starting to move and
change in abundance...
Guy Padfield
Michael Scott
British Trust for Ornithology
Bernard Picton
www.norfolkbirding.com
Guy Padfield
Changes to the timing of seasonal
events...
Guy Padfield
With consequences...
Laurie Campbell
Mark Thomas
‘Extreme’ climate change is now well
within the bounds of possibility
‘Our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions
scenario would lead to a warming of 4◦C relative
to pre-industrial during the 2070s.’
Betts et al. (2011) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
Changes to individual species
+ interactions between species
+ extreme events
Changes to species assemblages,
ecosystems and landscapes
Effects of climate change will interact
with and exacerbating existing pressures
New, flexible conservation
strategies needed, informed by new
ecological knowledge
• Challenges for conservation managers – what to do,
where, and when
• Challenges for ecological research – provide the
necessary information to enable appropriate
conservation decisions
How much do we know about the likely
consequences of climate change?
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Across different taxa?
In different groups of interacting species?
In different populations and places
In different ecosystems?
Vulnerability and resilience
• What features make a species or ecosystem
vulnerable, or confer resilience to change?
• Do the same features confer resilience to all
potential changes?
• How can we assess vulnerability/ resilience?
Ecological ‘regime shifts’
• Under what conditions might we see major
shifts in ecosystems, for example in
community composition or habitat structure?
• When might this point be reached for
different ecosystems?
Ecosystem services
What are the opportunities to combine nature
conservation and adaptation & mitigation benefits
for people?
At what level should we manage for
resilience?
– Maintain species?
– Maintain structural/functional type of habitat?
– Focus on large scale ecosystem processes?
Is current conservation (if done well)
enough to create resilience in the
short term?
Or should we already be starting to do things
differently?
Where should we focus our efforts?
Should we prioritise conservation of taxa and
ecosystems that are most vulnerable, or those
that seem most likely to persist?
?
High vulnerability
Low vulnerability
Medium vulnerability
Accommodating change
What warning signs might signal impending major
changes to communities and ecosystems?
At what point should we accept change rather than
trying to maintain things as they are?
Will we need to consider more radical
approaches to conservation?
(e.g. Large scale ‘rewilding’, or translocation of species)
Guy Padfield
Will we need to revise our ideas
about what is a ‘native’ or ‘non-native’
species?
Do we need new ways for judging success or
for assessing the conservation ‘value’ of a
particular place?
How can we have the flexibility to change our
objectives over time without compromising
overall conservation goals?
How does all this interact with likely adaptation
by other sectors (and with mitigation
objectives)?
[email protected]