Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Cazenove Capital Economic Update G10\MMF Roadshow template.ppt It is said that over time, bonds lead equities … Source: Zero Hedge 1 PSM\MMF … let’s hope this time is different! Source: Zero Hedge 2 PSM\MMF Central bank intervention has distorted all asset prices Interestingly, however, it is ‘safety’, not ‘risk’ that is hitting all-time highs! 3 PSM\MMF How ‘safe’ is our government bond market? Nominal yields are at all-time lows (price equivalent at an all-time high) 4 PSM\MMF Are US equities rightly considered a safe haven? % of US Corporate Profits over Nominal GDP vs S&P Total Return Profit as a % of GDP S&P (total return index) Source: Datastream 5 PSM\MMF G10\MMF Roadshow template.ppt Japan: “A bug in search of a windshield” Source: Datastream and Bloomberg 7 PSM\MMF To us, risk is largely a function of the price you pay Perceived Safety • Government bonds • IG bonds • US equities • ‘Defensive’ equities • Japanese Yen • Gold Perceived Risk } • European equities Expensive • Japanese equities • Cyclical equities • US$ } Cheap 8 PSM\MMF Equities – Dispersion between regions is extreme Source: Lipper 31/12/08 to 17/08/12 9 PSM\MMF Equities – Cyclicals trade at an attractive discount European cyclicals % PE premium vs defensives Source: MSCI, Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research 10 PSM\MMF How does OMT work? ECB EFSF € € € € € € € € € € € € €€ € € € Limited Purchase of debt OMT Austerity Greece Ireland Portugal 11 PSM\MMF We believe/hope the USD is bottoming… Source: Bloomberg 12 PSM\MMF …which brings us to Gold! USD TWI, Gold Source: BoE, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research 13 PSM\MMF ‘Safety’ was key in 2011. Today it’s overpriced. 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 14 PSM\MMF Fortunately… Source: Lipper from 30/12/11 to 07/09/12 15 PSM\MMF Cazenove Portfolio Management Service • One service with two propositions • Same journey, but a different route • Consistent investment process across wealth spectrum *0.5% AMC on Class X shares, minimum £1m waived via adviser platform. **1% AMC (plus VAT) up to £1m, scaling down to 0.5% on any balance thereafter. More information on fees is available on request. 16 PSM\MMF Important Information This document is issued by Cazenove Capital Management (Cazenove Capital). It is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to enter into any contract/agreement nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment or to provide any services referred to therein. This document is solely for the use of professional intermediaries and is not for general public distribution. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable, however, save to the extent required by applicable law or regulations, no guarantee, warranty or representation (express or implied) is given as to its accuracy or completeness, and Cazenove Capital or connected companies, directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information or any recommendations expressed herein which, moreover, are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced based on Cazenove Capital Management’s research and analysis and represents our house view. Unless otherwise stated all views are those of Cazenove Capital Management. It may not be reproduced in any form without the express permission of Cazenove Capital Management and to the extent that it is passed on, care must be taken to ensure this is in the form which accurately reflects the information given here. Unless otherwise indicated, the source for all data is Cazenove Capital. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount invested and may be affected by fluctuations in markets and exchange rates. Cazenove Capital Management is the name under which Cazenove Capital Management Limited (registered No. 3017060) and Cazenove Investment Fund Management Limited (registered No. 2134680) each authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and of 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA provide investment products and services. 17 PSM\MMF