Download Economics 5310: Applications of IS

Economics 5310: Applications of IS-LM Model
Assume the following structural equations that describe behavior in the economy’s goods
market and money market during the current period (i.e. given exogenous effects).
Yp = C + I + G + NX
C = Ca - d r + c (Y – T)
T = To + t Y
I = Io – f r
NX = NXo - e Y
G = Go
(M/P)d = (M/P)s
(M/P)d = k Y – g r
(M/P)s = (Mo/Po)
Assume known parameter values of c, t, e, and k that are the marginal propensity to
consume, to tax, to import, and to demand money, respectively, that are induced from a
change in income. Also assume known parameter values of d, f, and g that are the
marginal responsiveness of consumption, investment, and money demand, respectively,
that are induced from a change in the interest rate.
I. Evaluate the influence of the each of the following (other things equal) on the interest
rate, bond prices, real income, real consumption, real investment, and real net exports:
(Specify any behavior assumptions that you are applying in your analysis,)
Note: Bond prices always move inversely to current market interest rates.
1. A political campaign creates a wave of pessimism that sweeps across the land.
This will shift the IS curve to the left as pessimism reduces consumption and
investment at every level of income. When the IS curve shifts to the left, the interest
rate and income decrease. This results in higher bond prices and higher net exports
as induced imports decrease (acts as an automatic stabilizer).
2. Members of the ‘baby boom’ generation, now well into adulthood, become
increasingly concerned about having a comfortable retirement.
The IS curve will shift to the left as more people save more and consume less at
every level of income. (Effects of r, bond prices, income, and NX the same as
above).
3. A “buy American” campaign is successful and foreign countries do not retaliate in
any way.
The IS curve will shift to the right as buying American will increase autonomous net
exports as imports fall. The Interest rate increases, income increases, bond prices
fall, NX decrease with more induced imports.
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4. The administration reduces the income tax rate.
The IS curve will flatten out. This will increase Y and r as consumption increases
due to higher income multiplier, but it will crowd out investment and net exports.
5. A change in the nominal interest rate and exchange rate is matched by a change in
the expected rate of inflation.
No change, as the real interest rate remains the same. The supply and demand for
real money balances is unchanged.
6. Government spending increases because of war.
The IS curve shifts to the right as government spending increases; increasing
income, interest rates, and consumption through the multiplier effect, but reducing
investment (crowding out effect) and net exports (higher induced imports).
7. The Fed purchases Treasury Bills in the open market.
The LM curve will shift to the right as purchasing T-Bills in the open market
increases the money supply; lowering the interest rate. The lower interest rates will
increase investment, consumption and income. The higher income will reduce net
exports due to higher induced imports.
8. The demand for money becomes more sensitive to changes in the interest rate.
An increased sensitivity to interest rates in the demand for money will flatten out
the LM curve, causing the interest rates to fall and income to rise. Bond prices will
rise, investment and consumption will increase, but net exports will decrease due to
higher induced imports.
9. People begin to expect a decline in the near future of the interest rate on bonds.
The demand for money falls as the demand for bonds increases, The LM curve
shifts to the right as people expect capital gains, causing a self fulfilling prediction to
occur. Interest rates will decrease, investment and consumption will increase
causing higher real income. Net exports decrease due to higher induced imports.
10. A new law is passed to make automatic teller machines illegal.
The LM curve shifts to the left as people demand more money at every level of
income. The interest rate rises, income falls, investment and consumption fall, net
exports rise, and bond prices fall due to a lower demand for bonds.
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11. People are able to move funds more easily between their bond accounts to their
checking account.
The LM curve shifts to the right, as the velocity of money will increase (people
economize on their money balances, holding less money at every level of income).
Bond prices rise as the interest rate falls, investment and consumption rise, net
exports fall.
12. The public is less sensitive to changes in interest rates on their willingness to hold
money.
The LM curve will become steeper, while maintaining the same intercept on the
income axis. The interest rate will rise causing investment and consumption to
decrease, net exports to increase, and bond prices to fall unless the money supply is
increased.
13. The aggregate price level falls.
The supply of real money balances increases, causing the LM curve to shift to the
right. Income will rise, the real interest rate falls, investment and consumption rise,
net exports fall.
14. The real opportunity cost of holding money increases. (Note the real interest rate
is an endogenous variable.)
Since the real interest rate is endogenous it may temporarily increase above its
equilibrium level. At the same level of income in the good market the rate of
injection would be less than the rate of leakage, reducing causing the interest rate to
decrease to decrease the injection rate back to equilibrium. At the same level of
income in the money market, the higher interest rate would result in a demand for
money below the supply of money, causing the interest rate to fall to raise the
demand for money until equilibrium was reestablished.
II. The Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy
1. How would the effectiveness of fiscal policy be influenced if the demand for
money is insensitive to a change in the interest rate?
This results in a completely vertical LM curve. Fiscal policy is completely offset by
the effect of higher interest rates on investment unless the money supply is
increased.
2. How would the effectiveness of monetary policy be influenced if the demand for
money is insensitive to a change in the interest rate.
Monetary policy is completely effective with all new money used for transactions.
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3. Assume that the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the current level of real
GDP and Congress votes for a tax cut. What happens to interest rates and the
composition of output in the economy?
The tax cut shifts the IS curve to the right with a partial crowding out if the money
supply is unchanged. To keep the level of income constant the Fed lowers the money
supply, shifting the LM curve to the left, further increasing the interest rate until
investment and consumption spending decrease to completely crowd out the initial
stimulus on consumption of the tax cut.
4. What is likely to happen to interest rates if a fiscal policy deficit occurs and the
Fed does not act to change the money supply?
Under normal IS and LM slopes, a fiscal policy deficit shifts the IS curve to the right
increasing income and the interest rate. Without more money, the interest rate rises
to partially crowd out public spending by reduced investment spending.
III.
(Supplement to Problem Set 1) Suppose the NX function also depends negatively
on the interest rate. Assume a marginal responsiveness of NX to interest rates equal to h,
so that the new function is as follows:
NX = NX0 – e Y – h r
1. Why is NX negatively related to r?
A lower real interest rate lower the real exchange rate of the dollar if real interest
rates do not change abroad. This is because people will demand fewer dollars to
buy our financial assets (capital account deficit). The lower real exchange rates
makes our goods cheaper, adding to our net exports (current account surplus).
2. What happens to the slope of the IS curve?
The IS curve becomes flatter, i.e. more sensitive to a change in the interest rate.
Now a lower interest rate not only leads to more domestic investment, but it adds to
net exports, increasing domestic spending in the goods market.
3. Is monetary policy more or less effective in changing real output?
Other things equal, monetary policy is more effective, since a change in interest
rates resulting from Fed policy has a greater effect on the goods market. (Note that
the central bank can lower the exchange rate by either buying domestic bonds,
adding to the money supply, or buy selling dollars to buy foreign currencies, also
adding to the domestic money supply.)
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