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Global Resource Pack
IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 3
FINAL: 13 April
Table of Contents
-- Background, page 2
-- Key Dates, page 2
-- IPCC AR5 WG3 Overview, pages 3
-- Reactive Q&A, pages 4
-- Global Talking Points, page 5-6
-- Social Media Content, page 6
-- Template Press Release, page 6-7
-- Additional Resources, page 7
-- Annex 1: Key Findings, pages 8-10
1
Background
The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) serve in many respects
to underpin the international community’s understanding of climate change and related issues.
The IPCC’s reports are considered the most authoritative scientific assessments on climate
change in the world and are produced through the involvement of thousands of scientists
worldwide. The IPCC does not conduct its own research. Instead, scientists from universities,
think tanks, businesses and nonprofit groups around the world assess and synthesize the most
recent climate change-related science, on a volunteer basis. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5) is its first assessment report since 2007 (AR4), the year the IPCC won the Nobel
Peace Prize.
The AR5 is being launched in four separate installments during 2013 and 2014 and has the
potential to significantly enhance public awareness about climate change, providing NGO’s with
a number of opportunities and challenges. Each of the three AR5 Working Groups contains a
Summary for Policy-Makers (SPM) which is intended to aid policy-making and negotiated line by
line by governments. The final product, AR5, will also be endorsed unanimously by the world’s
governments. This government ownership of IPCC reports provides NGO’s with tremendous
advocacy opportunities to encourage governments to take the actions necessary to mitigate and
adapt to the very climate change their own reports detail. These report releases also come at a
key time during the UN climate change negotiations, as governments have committed to
negotiating a new, international climate change treaty by 2015.
The ongoing release of the latest IPCC report, in its various stages, is only the fifth time in the
organization’s twenty-four year history that it has published an assessment report. Each launch
of the various Working Groups came on the heels of a week-long plenary, and provides
important opportunities for many sectors of society, including NGO’s focused on climate change,
to communicate the findings and – most importantly - their relevance for policy makers, the
private sector, local communities and our shared environment.
Key Dates
Working Group 1: Focused on the physical science basis of the climate system and
climate change. It took place 23-26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. Resources on
Working Group 1, such as key findings, regional implications and rebuttal material are available
on request.
Working Group 2: Focused on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and took place 25-30
March 2014 in Yokohama, Japan, with the press conference for the launch of the SPM on 31
March. A suit of communications resources on Working Group 2 is also available on request.
Working Group 3: Addressed mitigation options globally and across sectors, and took place 712 April 2014 in Berlin, Germany, with the press conference for the launch of the SPM taking
place on 13 April.
The final installment will be a “synthesis report” which brings together the work of the three
Working Groups into one report. This will be released during a meeting on 27-31 October 2014
in Copenhagen, Denmark.
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IPCC AR5 WG3 Overview
The WG3 contribution to AR5 is focused on mitigation, which is defined by the IPCC as
“human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases”.
The report does not recommend specific goals for mitigation, but “assesses the options
available at different levels of governance and in different economic sectors”.
The report makes it clear that we can still keep global warming below 2 degrees C compared to
pre-industrial levels - the danger-threshold beyond which scientists project climate change to
spin out of control. Even keeping warming below 1.5 degrees C hasn't been ruled out by the
new report, the option advocated by some of the most vulnerable nations on the planet.
Achieving this and securing a safe climate future will not cost the earth, according to the
IPCC. In business-as-usual scenarios, consumption grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per year.
Ambitious mitigation would reduce this growth by only around 0.06 percentage points a year, i.e.
2.94 percent growth instead of 3 percent growth.
The economic assessments of the cost of mitigation in the new IPCC report don’t even include
the co-benefits of taking action - such as better public health and increased energy efficiency or the cost savings which result from avoiding future impacts. Looking at the low costs, the cobenefits and the savings, it's clear that climate mitigation is an economic no-brainer.
The task ahead of us is affordable, but massive. Nothing less than large scale changes in the
global energy mix are required, combined with deep and fast emissions cuts. According to the
IPCC scientists, we will have to almost quadruple our use of zero and low carbon energy by
2050, to have any chance of keeping warming below the 2 degrees C threshold.
The new report says that renewable energies must be a significant part of this change, are
an increasingly attractive option, and have strong future prospects - particularly if governments
put in place stronger enabling policies. The major expansion and price reduction associated with
renewables such as solar PV and onshore wind makes them the energy sources of choice.
According to the IPCC, clean solutions have to replace fossil fuels - the main driver of global
emissions and dangerous climate change. The report highlights that greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions continue to rise, and have risen faster over the past ten years than during the thirty
year period preceding it. The energy sector, especially coal power, are the biggest culprits.
The new report states that the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels will have to
include the “long-term phase-out of unabated fossil fuel conversion technologies”. It goes on to
say that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere can only be stabilized if global (net) CO2
emissions peak and decline toward zero in the long term.
The report points out that substantial shifts in annual investment flows between 2010 and
2029 are required, i.e. cuts in fossil fuel investments of USD 30 billion per year, while more than
doubling the investment in renewables. Delaying mitigation action now implies higher costs of
action later, says the IPCC, while the co-benefits of actions taken now can outweigh their costs.
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The new report also devotes some time to addressing one of the key challenges facing people
and planet: the fact that urban areas are expected to triple by 2030. This is directly relevant to
climate change as urban areas account for roughly 70% of global energy use and global
energy-related CO2 emissions.
According to the IPCC, the massive potential of smart infrastructure choices, combined with low
energy codes in new buildings, retrofits of the existing housing stock and more widespread use
of already existing technologies and efficiencies mean that the next two decades are full of
opportunity for mitigation.
The new IPCC report also makes a strong case for more efficient use of energy, highlighting
the massive potential and multiple benefits, as well as the need for improved demand side
management. Of course it's vital to produce energy in a more sustainable way, but saving
energy in the first place and avoiding unnecessary waste is even better.
In the context of zero and low carbon energy sources, the report also references nuclear
energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS), in addition to renewables. It points out,
however, that nuclear is expensive and holds many risks, and that CCS is more theory than
practice and has not been proven at scale - major road blocks not faced by renewables.
Different from CCS and nuclear, renewables are the only safe and affordable zero carbon
option, and global reports from NGOs such as Greenpeace (Energy [R]evolution) and WWF
(The Energy Report) or national scenarios (e.g. Stanford University's Solutions Project for the
US) have made clear that a world powered by 100% renewable energy is possible.
The controversial topics of geo-engineering and carbon removal are discussed in the report,
but with multiple caveats including that they carry with them severe risks to the environment, are
expensive, and have not been proven at scale. The IPCC’s approach to such technologies
reflects the fact that they are widely seen as a distraction when cheaper, safer and cleaner
solutions such as renewable energies are available but haven't been fully tapped yet.
Geo-engineering isn’t a scientific term and carbon removal technologies differ widely. One
technology receiving some attention in the report is Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and
Storage (BECCS). Research suggests a carbon price of around USD 100 per tonne of CO2
would be needed to make BECCS economically feasible.
And while BECCS is an essential part of some low-emission scenarios in the report, it comes
with drawbacks including high costs and the need to use arable land and water resources
to produce biofuels. However, the technology is unlikely to have some of the unpredictable,
irreversible impacts that people fear from other geo-engineering options such as ocean
fertilisation.
Key Findings / Reactive Q&A
A selection of key findings from IPCC AR5 WG3 can be found in Annex 1, providing additional
details to the overview above.
Additionally, reactive Q&A material and ad-hoc support with rebutting misinformation about AR5
WG3, please contact Christian Teriete at: [email protected]
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Global Talking Points
• The IPCC says with extreme certainty that climate change is real, caused by human activity,
and requires urgent action. Sea levels are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, sea ice is
declining and oceans are acidifying.
• All this comes with grave consequences for our communities, environments and economies risks we are not prepared for, risks threatening those who are vulnerable, risks that need to be
managed by governments.
• The fact that climate change is here and now highlights the need for urgent action - we’re
already experiencing severe impacts on every continent and across the oceans, resulting in
growing economic and social costs.
• The IPCC is clear that we can still keep global warming below the danger-threshold of 2
degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels, if we make bold and quick decisions towards
deeper and faster cuts in emissions. Even 1.5 degrees C is not ruled out.
• Tackling climate change won't cost the earth. In business-as-usual scenarios, consumption
grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per year. Action to stay below 2 degrees C would reduce this growth
by only 0.06 percentage points, while resulting in co-benefits, such as healthier people and
cleaner air, as well as preventing future impacts.
• The global emissions trend is still pointing in the wrong direction: Carbon pollution continues
to rise globally, with emissions in the last decade accelerating faster than in previous decades,
especially in industry and energy sectors, which has been driven by dirty coal power.
• Some modern and innovative economies have beaten the trend and managed to reduce and
decouple their emissions from economic growth, showing that a rapid transition away from fossil
fuels and towards pollution-free renewable energy such as wind and solar works.
• To enable this transition to happen at the speed we need, governments must introduce more
policies which enable clean energy solutions, and more investments to propel them. The IPCC
says CO2 emissions must peak and decline towards zero, while unabated fossil fuels will be
phased out completely.
• Renewables can power our society, drive the economy, and give us cleaner air, resulting in a
wide range of benefits such as new jobs, good business and improved public health. The fact
that they are safe, available and increasingly cheap makes them the option of choice.
• The support needed to boost clean energy and discourage the use of fossil fuels could be
available if governments phased out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and instead provided
incentives for clean, renewable energy for all.
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• The new IPCC report confirms this, detailing the need for a complete phase out of fossil fuels
and CO2 emissions, and the divestment of at least 30 billion US dollars per year from fossil
fuels over the coming decades, while doubling investments in renewable energies.
• The clean energy transition is inevitable, the people are demanding it, and essentially it's
already underway. To stave off the worst consequences of climate change, governments must
free themselves from corporate capture and scale up faster.
• The longer we delay action to foster the low carbon transition, the more expensive
addressing climate change will get. Government leaders not ramping up climate action now are
not doing their jobs, are failing their people, and are fast running out of excuses.
• At a UN summit in September, they must commit to deeper cuts in emissions and faster
shifts in energy finance from dirty to clean - in order to lay the groundwork for the strong global
climate treaty that is due in Paris in 2015.
• Prepared by over 800 of the world’s leading experts from all corners of the globe, the new
IPCC report is the most thorough, comprehensive, authoritative and scrutinized assessment of
scientific knowledge on climate change ever produced.
Sample Social Media Content
Please check our Social Media Hub for great memes, sample content and other useful materials
for IPCC communications on channels such as Twitter, Facebook etc. We keep updating it with
new resources for your use every few days, you can check it out here.
For questions on our social media content please contact Nick Katkevich at:
[email protected]
Template Press Release
The following draft, template press release is meant to assist you in your own media outreach
efforts. It is of course only a template and should be edited to be more locally and/or regionally
relevant.
ADD RELEVANT HEADLINE FOR YOUR PRESS RELEASE
Berlin, April 13, 2014: XXXX (ADD NAME OF YOUR ORGANIZATION) welcomes the launch of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report in Berlin today which
shows that avoiding catastrophic climate change is still possible, but only with rapid and
sustained cuts to carbon pollution.
The report points to the benefits of increasing the use of pollution-free renewable power and
phasing out dirty fossil fuels in the long term. In addition to highlighting the need to transform the
energy system, the IPCC says other solutions to the climate crisis include using energy more
efficiently, and investing in better transport and building technologies.
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“The IPCC makes it clear that climate action is necessary, affordable and beneficial,” XXXX from
XXXX (ADD NAME OF YOUR SPOKESPERSON AND ORGANISATION) said “Taking strong
action is a no-brainer when you consider the choice the IPCC presents us with: annual
economic growth of 3% without climate action, or 2.94% of growth with action that staves off the
worst climate impacts and delivers a multitude of co-benefits for people and planet."
For the world to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the report points out that the use of
zero and low carbon energy sources will need to at least triple by 2050. To fund the transition,
the IPCC said at least USD30 billion per year would need to be divested from dirty energy over
the coming decades, while investments in renewable power would need to double.
The third installment of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report - which involves over 800 scientists
synthesizing the latest findings in the field - has raised pressure on government leaders to act
as it has outlined how cutting pollution now will be cheaper and more effective.
“This report shows that we have the solutions to the climate crisis,” XXXX from XXXX (ADD
NAME OF YOUR SPOKESPERSON AND ORGANISATION) said “But with levels of climate
change-causing carbon pollution still rising across the globe, it’s clear that more needs to be
done, and faster, to accelerate the transition from dirty energy to clean, renewable power.”
The transition to renewable energy will provide massive benefits ranging from energy security,
new jobs, good business and improved public health.
XXXX (ADD NAME OF YOUR ORGANISATION) will be looking to XXXX (ADD NAME OF
RELEVANT GOVERNMENT LEADERS) to commit to increasing climate action at the United
Nations’ Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in September in order to lay the groundwork for a
strong global treaty that is due to be signed in Paris in 2015.
Ends
** Insert Spokesperson Contact Details Here **
Additional Resources
The following list contains links to additional resources which can be very useful in further
explaining AR5 WG3.
1) IPCC: The official IPCC site. Where all relevant media materials including the link to the
webcast of the IPCC's press conference will be posted. Link: http://www.ipcc.ch/
2) Climate Nexus: Significant amount of information about AR5 and the IPCC as well as
numerous links to other useful references on a host of key issues such as oceans, warming,
etc. Link: http://climatenexus.org/resources/read/
3) The Carbon Brief: Carbon Brief’s website is a terrific resource for the latest climate change
news, important rebuttals and a significant amount of information about AR5. Link:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/
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4) Skeptical Science: Skeptical Science keeps the climate debate honest using up-to-date
scientific data and peer reviewed papers. They have produced rebuttals of over one hundred
examples of climate misinformation. Link: http://www.skepticalscience.com/
For more information on AR5, this resource guide, or to request additional material, please
contact;
Christian Teriete at [email protected] or
Ria Voorhaar at [email protected].
Appendix 1 - Key Findings
The following represent some of the key findings and most noteworthy items contained in the
AR5 WG3 report:
Emissions
• Climate change is a global problem. Addressing it requires international cooperation together
with effective local, national, and regional policies.
• Emissions grew faster over the past ten years (at 2.2% per year) than over the entire 30 year
period of 1970 to 2000 (1.3% per year).
• The global economic crisis of 2007/2008 temporarily reduced emissions, but it did not
change the overall trend.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels have continued to grow by about 3%
between 2010 and 2011 and by about 1-2% between 2011 and 2012.
• CO2 remains the most common greenhouse gas (GHG), representing about 76% of total
GHG emissions in 2010.
• Over the past four decades, the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has doubled, from
about 900 GtCO2 for the period 1750-1970 to 2,000 GtCO2 for 1750-2010.
• The regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting in line with changes in the world
economy.
• Increases in pollution are being seen in upper-middle income countries where economic
growth and infrastructure development has been high.
• While total CO2 emissions from some developing countries now exceed those of developed
countries, per-capita emissions are still markedly lower in most developing countries.
• A small number of countries accounts for a large share of global emissions. In 2010, ten
countries accounted for about 70% of the world's CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes.
• A similarly small number of countries are responsible for most of the CO2 emissions going
back to 1750.
• More than 75% of the increase in annual GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 was from
the energy supply (47%) and industry (30%) sectors.
• During the period of 2000 to 2010, economic and population growth were the main drivers
for emissions, and without targeted efforts they are expected to remain key drivers.
2 degrees C
• A concentration of atmospheric CO2-equivalent of more than 530 parts per million (ppm) will
more likely than not result in warming of more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
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• Keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C by 2100 is definitely still possible, but will
require large scale changes in the global energy mix plus deep cuts in emissions soon.
• Even limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is not ruled out by the IPCC, the level advocated by
many of the most vulnerable nations on Earth.
• Significant cuts in emissions will be required by both developed and emerging economies,
e.g. 50% cuts by 2030 (from 2010 levels) in wealthy countries.
• In Asia, emissions in 2030 can't be higher than they were in 2010. Latin American countries
will also be required to cut emissions significantly.
• For below 2 degrees C, by 2050 the share of zero and low carbon energy will need to almost
quadruple, while global GHG emissions will have to be reduced by 40-70% (compared to 2010).
• The stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels requires the “long-term phase-out of
unabated fossil fuel conversion technologies”.
• The concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere can only be stabilized if global (net) CO2
emissions peak and decline toward zero in the long term.
Economics
• A low-carbon economy doesn't have to mean reduced economic growth. Policies such as
carbon taxes have helped to decouple carbon emissions from GDP in some countries.
• The transformation to a low-carbon economy will require new patterns of investment, and will
result in the creation of a significant amount of new jobs.
• Reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels can achieve significant emission cuts at no or low social
cost.
• To keep temperature rise below 2 degrees C by 2100, substantial shifts in annual investment
flows between 2010 and 2029 will be required.
• Specifically, investment in fossil fuels, both power plants and extraction, would need to
decline by 30 billion USD per year between 2010 and 2029.
• At the same time, investment in low carbon electricity supply would need to rise by 147
billion USD.
• Mitigation policy may devalue endowments of fossil fuel exporting countries, with the biggest
negative impact on coal exporters.
• If the world delays mitigation and cannot stop the rise in emissions we currently see before
2030, it will be very difficult to keep warming below 2 degrees C.
• The report makes clear that emission reduction pledges made by governments at the climate
talks in Cancun, for 2020, will not be enough.
• Keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C will have many co-benefits in many areas, e.g.
energy security, air quality, public health, employment, and innovation objectives.
Risks
• Rather than ignoring risk and waiting for total certainty, effective policies will move forward
while accounting for risk and uncertainty.
• Some of the risks are essentially unknown, such as tipping points or thresholds that would
trigger runaway climate change.
• Uncertainty further amplifies the need to plan effectively for the risks we face, both known
and unknown.
• Policies can be improved by taking into account risks and uncertainties in natural, social and
technological systems, people’s values, and their perceptions and decision processes.
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• Risks and uncertainties can be addressed systematically, even when probabilities and
outcomes cannot be specified precisely.
Sectors
• Without taking new action, emissions are projected to grow in all sectors, except for CO2
emissions in the land-use sector.
• Infrastructure developments that lock societies into high emissions pathways may be difficult
or very costly to change.
• The energy supply sector is the largest contributor to global GHG emissions, primarily due to
an increasing demand for energy services and a growing share of coal in the global fuel mix.
• Direct emissions from the energy supply sector are projected to double or even triple by
2050 compared to 2010.
• Taking the carbon out of electricity generation is a key component of mitigation, and this will
require rapidly reducing coal power generation.
• Since the last IPCC report, AR4, many renewable energy technologies have substantially
advanced, which has increased their share in the global energy mix.
• The cost of many renewable energy solutions is falling and their use is spreading. The
price of solar PV fell by more than half, global installations increased 25-fold from 2005-2012.
• However, for the continued expansion of renewable energy, more enabling policies will need
to be enacted.
• Without action, transport CO2 emissions are projected to double by 2050, but with strong
measures and good policies, energy demand in the transport sector could be reduced 40%.
• The building sector was responsible for 34% final energy use in 2010, but with energy
demand projected to roughly double, emissions could increase 50-150% by 2050.
• With the increase in advanced technologies, know-how and good policies, it's possible to
stabilize or reduce building sector energy use by 2050.
• Recent large improvements in performance and costs make very low energy construction
and retrofits economically attractive.
• Low energy building codes in new buildings, combined with retrofits in existing ones can help
achieve reductions of heating/cooling energy use by 50-90%.
• Industry related emissions are expected to continue to grow as they have over the past
decades, with CO2 emissions projected to increase 50-150% by 2050 (compared to 2010).
• The energy intensity of the sector could be reduced by up to 25% compared to the current
level through the wide-scale deployment of best available technologies.
• A growing share of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in developing countries is
released in the production of goods and services that are exported and traded across borders.
• Since the previous IPCC report, AR4, emissions from the AFOLU sector have stabilized, but
the share of anthropogenic emissions has decreased.
• The report also states that the most cost-effective forestry options are reducing deforestation
and forest management.
• Urbanization is transforming societies and energy use. By 2050, the global urban population
is expected to almost double.
• This is directly relevant to climate changes as urban areas account for roughly 70% of global
energy use and global energy-related CO2 emissions.
• The next decades are full of opportunity for urban mitigation, as most of the world’s urban
areas have yet to be constructed. Urban areas are expected to triple between 2000 and 2030.
Policies
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• In a large number of countries, fuel taxes (although not explicitly designed for mitigation) act
as sectoral carbon taxes.
• In Europe, where the fuel taxes are highest, they have contributed to reductions in carbon
emissions from the transport sector of roughly 50%.
• Reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels can achieve significant emission reductions, but can
have a high social cost if not done carefully.
• Many countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies, which
largely accrue to the wealthy, utilizing lump-sum cash transfers to off-set impacts on the poor.
• Potential adverse side-effects of mitigation due to higher energy prices, for example, on
improving access of the poor to clean, reliable and affordable energy services, can be avoided.
• Approximately three billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity and/or depend
on traditional solid fuels for cooking and heating - with various negative consequences.
• The costs for achieving nearly universal energy access are between 72 and 95 billion USD
per year until 2030. The contribution of renewable energy to energy access can be substantial.
• Achieving universal energy access reduces short-lived climate pollutants and methane
emissions, and yields only negligibly higher GHG emissions from power generation.
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