Download Presentation

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup

Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup

Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup

Climate governance wikipedia , lookup

Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup

Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup

Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup

Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup

German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup

Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup

Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup

Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup

General circulation model wikipedia , lookup

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup

Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup

Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup

Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup

Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup

Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup

Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup

Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in New Zealand wikipedia , lookup

Global warming wikipedia , lookup

Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup

Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup

Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup

Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup

North Report wikipedia , lookup

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup

Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup

Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
+ Simulation of
Global Warming
in the Continental
United States
Using AgentBased Modeling
By Marika Lohmus
Computer Systems Lab 2008-2009
TJSTAR Presentation
+
Purpose

What is the relationship
between population and
global warming?

Gaia Hypothesis


Does it apply to humans?
Population Size
Greenhouse Gases
Negative Feedback loop

Is there an equilibrium?
Temperature
+
Background

Sea levels predicted to rise by 18 – 59 cm by 2100 (IPCC,
2007)

Average surface temperature predicted to increase by 1.1 –
6.4°C (EPA, 2007)

From 1750 to 2005, greenhouse gases have increased (IPCC,
2007)




CO2 by 36%
CH4 by 148%
N2O by 18%
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 17% from
1990 to 2007 (IPCC, 2009)
+
Background – CO2
•CO2
levels will keep on rising (U.S. Climate Change Science Program,
2007)
•Currently 387 ppmv
•Estimated increase from 541 to 963 ppmv by 2100 (Prentice, et al., 2001)
+
Methodology


Modeling environment: NetLogo

Simulation of natural and social phenomena

Uri Wilensky 1999

Written in Java for all major platforms
Components

Interface

Procedures

System Dynamics
+
Methodology
Agents and Patches



Agents (People)
 Salary
 Money
Patches (Land)
 Temperature
 Elevation
 Death Rate
Cities
 Average Salary
 Poverty Percent
 Name



Changeable Variables

Birth Rate

D(Death Rate)

Emissions Per Person
Dependent Variables

Total Emissions

Earth Temperature
System Dynamics

Atmospheric Absorption
Coefficient
+
Methodology
System Dynamics

Runs parallel with Interface

Atmospheric Absorption Coefficient (AAC)


Greenhouse Gas Effect (Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997)

60% H2O

26% CO2

8% O3

6% CH4 + N2O
AAC of .25628 through trial & error

Mean Earth Temperature: 287.89 K (GISS, 2006)

60% (.153768) remains constant
+
Methodology
Other Data Used

Birth Rate: .1418 / 10000
people per year (CIA, 2009)

Death Rate: .0827 / 10000
people per year (CIA, 2009)

U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in 2007: 7150.1
Tg CO2 Eq. (IPCC, 2009)


17% increase from 1990
Elevation Map from
Continental Divide project
(Wilensky, 2007)
+
Methodology
Creation of People and Moving

City Data


Percentage under the poverty line

$15,800 for a 2.5 person average family (US Census, 2000)

50% below and 50% above average annual salary
Move Method

Temperature > 25 C

Diameter of money/10000

Random spot, if favorable, move

Random number generator: move 1
+ Run With Current Data
Birth rate of .1418, d(death rate) of 101,
emissions per person of 1
+
Variables
D(death rate)

Higher temperatures mean higher death rates (IPCC, 2007)



What is the connection?
High d(death rate)

Technological improvements

Immunity to diseases
Low d(death rate)

Disaster hits

Chaos due to increasing population

New diseases and epidemics
D(Death Rate)
+
Turtles
Temperature
1
4371.685863
287.8327252
21
4544.982732
288.670742
41
4609.949897
288.9962363
61
4670.43662
289.2661846
81
4660.525752
289.2079459
101
4645.692383
289.1419626
121
4671.405155
289.2751383
141
4654.712342
289.216479
161
4670.492981
289.2954364
181
4721.683784
289.4841187
201
4679.209357
289.3124067
D(Death Rate) Data
•Clear
increase
•Dampened
•Better
•Chaos
Oscillation
technology = more people
due to population increase?
(IPCC, 2007)
+
Turtles
Temperature
Birth Rate
Birth Rate Data
•Clear
3819.053231
285.3336871
0
4478.013582
288.3251024
0.1
5077.232392
291.0630246
0.2
5864.339263
293.928724
0.3
6480.288649
296.6730886
0.4
7100.415135
299.564913
0.5
increase in both temperature
and number of turtles
•NOTE: D(Death
Rate) = 101
meaning that the population size
increases due to a slow increase in
the death rate
+
Emissions Data
•The
40% of AAC is not entirely
contributed to by humans
•Cold
weather – more deaths
•30%
of current emissions optimal
+
Emissions
•Cap
on temperature?
•People
die quickly at high
emissions
•Inverse
relationship with turtles
+
Conclusion
• Sudden drop in
temperature and population
at first, followed by a sharp
increase
•Shock value
•Adaptation
•Model does not show a system as change out of equilibrium
(Janssen, 1998)
•Humans have learned to adapt to changes
•Oscillations seem to level off
•Emissions kept at current level: Scenarios not too bleak
•From 1990, 1.3% annual increase in emissions (EPA, 2009)
+
Bibliography
1. Batten, D. (2007). Are some human ecosystems self-defeating?. Environmental Modelling &
Software, 22, 649-655.
2. EPA (2009). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks . Washington, DC: U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency.
3. Damaceanu, R. (2008). An agent-based computational study of wealth distribution in function of
resource growth interval using NetLogo. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 201, 371-377.
4. Grimm, V., Revilla, E., Berger, U., Jeltsch, F., Mooij, W., Railsback, S., Thulke, H., Weiner, J., Wiegand, T.,
& Deangelis, D. (2005). Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from
Ecology. Science, 310(5750), 987-991.
5. IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge
University Press.
6. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Climate Change 2007). New York: Cambridge University
Press.
7. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for
Policymakers, a Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental. New York: Cambridge
University Press.
8. Janssen, M. (1998). Use of complex adaptive systems for modeling global change. Ecosystems, 1,
457-463.
9. Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., & Roeckner, E. (2008). Advancing decadal-scale
climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453(7191), 84-88.
10.NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. (n.d.). Retrieved May 27, 2009, from
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistempSemtner, A. (2000).
11. Ocean and Climate Modeling. Communications of the ACM, 43(4), 81-89.Trenberth, K., Fasullo, J., &
Kiehl, J. (2009).
12.Earth's Global Energy Budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(3), 311-323.
13.Weather Records and Averages. (n.d.). Retrieved September 27, 2008, from
http://www.weatherbase.com