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National export and investment agency “KAZNEX INVEST” JSC Ministry for investment and development of the Republic of Kazakhstan Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities in dairy producing industry in Kazakhstan Vast farmland areas Agriculture with a potential to increase efficiency Market potential for processed food Significant market consolidation potential Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities with the range of 0,5 – 20 mln. USD January 2016 This Presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to the public in any jurisdiction to purchase any shares or assets of any Company, and does not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation to purchase shares, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon, in any way in connection with any contract or investment decision relating to any shares. Information contained herein should be treated as confidential. Copying or distributing without prior written consent from Kaznex Invest is prohibited. CONFIDENTIAL Confidential 1 Agenda 1. Executive summary and basic information 2. Dairy production 3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities CONFIDENTIAL 2 Executive summary Kazakhstan is a dynamically developing economy with favorable demographics and low public debt Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia. The country has got vast oil reserves, deposits of metals and robust agricultural potential with lands suitable for both livestock and grain production. Kazakhstan dynamic economic growth Executive summary Growing demand in regional and domestic markets for higher value and quality food products of packaged food, branded products and retail private labels is an outcome of Kazakhstan’s growing economy and increasing disposable incomes; Kazakhstan has a potential of a springboard for expanding into the entire Central Asian, Caucasus, China and India regions with combined GDP of more that USD 16 trillion, acting as an agricultural hub for the macro region; Attractiveness of the end-consumer market as Kazakhstan represents a relatively large mid-income market with GDP per capita of USD 12,950 in 2014 corresponds to that of most of the benchmark countries. Kazakh potential in agriculture Strong potential for the development of agribusiness in Kazakhstan due to country’s considerable land resources, as Kazakhstan has the world’s 12th largest arable land area, and fifth in the world in terms of pastureland of 182.2 million hectares, but it uses only about 30% of the pastures; Kazakhstan plays an important role in ensuring food security in Central Asia. Taking into account the interaction within the Organization of the Islamic food security, the possibilities of Kazakhstan in this area will increase significantly; Agricultural development program “Agribusinesses 2020” includes state support directed at small, medium and large farms to improve their effectiveness and develop the sector as a broad level; The special program of Plan of the Nations “100 Steps” is being implemented to address the problem of livestock forage and crop production as well as specifically highlights importance to improve the quality of the meat and dairy goods. Summary of projects on Dairy production Capex required 10 m USD Summary of projects 11 5 m USD 13 3 m USD 17 1 m USD 15 16 13 Page number Greenfield Brownfield 14 CONFIDENTIAL 12 3 Kazakhstan’s economy and basic market data Kazakhstan is a dynamically developing economy with favorable demographics and low public debt Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia. The country has got vast oil reserves, deposits of metals and robust agricultural potential with lands suitable for both livestock and grain production. Kazakhstan’s economy Economic growth Since 2000 Kazakhstan’s economy has been growing dynamically (among the world’s fastest developing countries) Average GDP growth rate of 7.7% in years 20002014. GDP increase has been driven by favorable market prices for Kazakhstan’s leading exports – oil, metals and grain. GDP growth rate (%) 9.8 13.5 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.7 10.7 8.9 2000 2002 2004 2006 5.0 1.2 2008 2010 6.0 4.3 2012 2014 USD/KZT 190 170 150 130 110 KZT devaluation KZT devaluation 2006 Demographics 2008 2010 2012 2014 Age structure (ths) Population of 17.3 million in 2013 expected to increase to 18.7 million by 2020 90 - 94 75 - 79 60 - 64 45 - 49 30 - 34 15 - 19 0-4 Male Favorable age structure implies a steadily increasing demand for meat and agricultural products Median population age is at 29 years (compared to 46 in Germany, 38 in Poland, 31 in Brazil) 900 Public debt Kazakhstan has been the first former Soviet republic to repay all of its debt to the IMF, 7 years ahead of schedule In 2014 Kazakhstan sold first overseas dollar bonds in 14 years, issuing USD 2.5bn of 10- and 30-year bonds 600 300 0 Female 0 300 600 900 Public debt (% of GDP) 15.5 11.4 8.1 The public debt of Kazakhstan since 2011 remains stable between 12-14% Basic information 7.5 7.3 3.3 2004 10.2 6.7 2006 5.9 13.8 12.6 13.2 12.1 6.7 2008 2010 2012 2014 Basic information Public debt Total area: 2,7 mln. km2 (9th largest in the world); Official language: Kazakh, Russian; Currency: Tenge (₸) KZT); Capital: Astana; Largest city: Almaty; Administrative division: 14 regions + 2 cities of republican significance; Membership in the organizations: UN, IMF, WB, OSCE, OIC, WTO. CONFIDENTIAL 4 Kazakhstan’s food processing industry Market data and value Market data and value For the period 2010-2014 gross production of the agriculture goods in Kazakhstan increased by 1,5 times and reached 8 bln. USD in 2014. Growth and investment attractiveness Agro sector is becoming more competitive and export-oriented. Since 2010 export of agriculture commodities and processed products has increased by 1,5 time and reached 2,6 bln. USD. Food processing total turnover for the year 2014 reached import and export indicators in the year 2015 were 2,9 and 1,1 bln. USD respectively FDI inflow to the sector increased by 2 times and reached 894,5 mln. USD in 2014, out of which FDI into the food processing industry was about 219,4 mln. USD. Currently there are about 1 689 enterprises of small medium and large sizes operating in the sector of food processing in the country Local market provision with domestically produced main categories of goods was around 80%. Average production capacity for companies in 7 subsectors of food processing was around 42%, varying from lowest 16,2% in vegetables processing to highest 66,2% in production of canned meat As of 2014 overall food processing industry of the country increased by 2,9% and reached over 5,5 bln. USD. Agro strategy of Kazakhstan Agro strategy of Kazakhstan Strategy “Kazakhstan - 2050” 10 priority subsectors of To increase the level of state support for agriculture by 4,5 time by 2020; agriculture and food To increase the agro contribution to GDP of the country by 5 times by 2050. Strategy “Agrobusiness - 2020” Investment subsidies to subsectors of crop production and animal feedlots; Investment subsidies; of raw materials for Meat processing Production of fats Deep processing of grain Fruits and vegetables processing Confectionery Fish processing Lowering interest rate on credit lines and lease; Subsidies for purchase companies; Milk processing processing Exemption from income tax on income of smallholders; Processing of hides Sugar production Wool processing Subsidies for the paid VAT CONFIDENTIAL 5 Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities Allocation of investment opportunities with regard to country’s regions Allocation of investment opportunities with regard to country’s regions Diary farm on goat milk production, greenhouse complex on vegetables and flowers, crude grass fiber production opportunities exist in West Kazakhstan region The major meat production and diary production projects are concentrated in Akmola region. Almaty region is famous for its agricultural complexes, which produce wide variety of meat products, diary and wheat processing facilities. Confectionary and diary production is concentrated in Aktobe region CONFIDENTIAL Kyzylorda region -vegetable crops production, poultry and diary production 6 Agenda 1. Executive summary and basic information 2. Dairy production 3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities CONFIDENTIAL 7 Dairy production market data and financials Dairy production in Kazakhstan grows slowly but at a stable pace Dairy production market is developing at a stable pace, slower then the country’s economy and slower than the growth in domestic meat consumption. Between 2010-2014 this sector recorded an average growth rate of 2.3% annually Milk production structure (ths tons) Milk production 82% of meat in Kazakhstan is produced on small farms and the production is scattered around the country Generally, there is significant milk production deficit in the country There is a slight increase towards mils import to the country Milk deficit in the Kazakh market provides an opportunity for dairy importers Dairy production The average annual growth rate of milk consumption per capita since 2011 was 7.7%. Drinking milk products consumption culture in Kazakhstan is not mature and is mostly associated with tradition of drinking milk with tea, making local dishes, for breakfast and before dinner. Average annual growth rate of dairy production for the period 2009-2014 Sour milk products consumption is deep in Kazakh tradition. Sour milk products is the most often consumed dairy products by Kazakhs. In 2014, cheese consumption was increasing in Kazakhstan largely because of increasing innovation and many new products being launched. Dairy products consumption dynamics for the period 2009-2014 Retail volume faster than the 3% value CAGR of 2013. sales of cheese grew by 4% in 2014, which was. Other dairy in Kazakhstan presented wide range of assortment and innovation in 2014. Chilled desserts is rich in variety and able to satisfy different consumer needs and age groups. Moreover, chilled desserts is often accompanied by muesli, crisps and pieces of fruit. Government support includes mainly direct payment subsidies to farmers The main goal of recent government support is to increase the domestic livestock output: Subsidies to cut feed cost for animal production up to 45% – granted directly to farmers to reduce the cost of feed Subsidies to reduce the breeding cattle purchase prices up to 50% – granted depending on the cattle’s country of origin CONFIDENTIAL 8 Investment subsidies for construction of feedlots and meat processing plants, up to 50% and 30% respectively Main producers and contact for dairy production The largest producers of dairy products are private companies and potential acquisition targets Key producers Producer Market share Region Agroproduct company 25 Almaty Vostok - Moloko 19 East-Kazakhstan region Amil LLP 19 Bagration 7 East-Kazakhstan region East-Kazakhstan region Investment hypothesis Dairy production market is among the fastest growing food processing industries in Kazakhstan. Despite the significant growth, production deficit is still substantial in the country The market of dairy production in Kazakhstan is highly fragmented with a significant consolidation potential for the investors Among the subsectors of dairy production with highest development potential are cheese production, yogurt and sour milk production, as well as production of cream freshener and cottage cheese. Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at the Department on Pre-investment affairs, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] CONFIDENTIAL 9 Agenda 1. Executive summary and basic information 2. Dairy production 3. Acquisition and greenfield investment opportunities CONFIDENTIAL 1 0 Project information Phase-1 and Phase-2 of existing Dairy Farm with 1 800 heads of cows Expansion planning Project cost: USD 5-15 mln. Location: Akmola region Implementation period: 2016 Project scope: Phase-1 of Milk division consists of an import of 500 heifers from Ukraine as to bring the existing farm to its full capacity. Phase-2 consists of constructing additional 600 heads capacity extension of the existing dairy farm (to reach new installed capacity of 1 800 dairy cow heads) and import of 600 heifers in the following years. Finished product: Milk Production capacity: 1 800 heads of cattle, 10.5 mln liters of raw milk per annum Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Eurasian union Provision of land and premises: initiator owns a dairy farm complex with installed dairy cow capacity of 1 200 head of cows. The farm currently houses only 688 dairy cows and 500 calves. The farm produces raw milk, livestock (calves and bulls), as well as organic fertilizers Required financing: USD 9,3 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☐ Debt Project initiator Company name Esil Agro Holding Year of establishment 2004 Presence on the market: 2004 Developed brands: “Aina” Current operation: Production of dairy and poultry, and production of agricultural commodity of grain ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability for the period of 8 years (in th. USD) Project profitability Indicator Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Revenue COGS 3 318 2 609 5 845 3 814 7 998 4 833 9 287 5 316 9 783 5 550 9 908 5 657 9 918 5 714 10 121 5 831 Taxes Net profit 63 1 145 89 1 942 99 3 066 97 3 874 95 4 138 92 4 159 90 4 114 87 4 206 Project profitability Project capex USD 9,3 mln. Project NPV (8 years) USD 4,5 mln. Project IRR 26% Payback Period 3,3 years Payback Period disc. 4 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: Esil Agro Holding CONFIDENTIAL 1 1 Project information Establishment of new dairy farm Project cost: USD 0-5 mln. Location: Aktobe region, Kargaly region, Kosistek village Implementation period: 2016-2018 Project scope: to invest in the organization of milk based farm, which will help to eradicate the problem of quality of milk products and resolve food security issue in the Aktobe region, by the means pf providing quality dairy products for the population of the region Finished product: Packaged meat products and milk products Production capacity: up to 50 tones of milk and 10-15 tones of meat Potential markets: Primarily domestic market Provision of land and premises: initiator of project owns 1,500 m square farm complex, which consists of 2 bedroom house for the employees, food warehouses, stables for animals and main office building. Additionally the initiator of the project owns 765 hectares of pasture land. Raw materials are not outsourced but produced internally within the premises of the farm Required financing: USD 0,45 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☑ Debt Project initiator Company name “Janaturmys” Farm Cooperative Year of establishment 2002 Presence on the market: 2002 Current operation: Production of dairy and meat products, and production of agricultural commodity of fodder ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability Project profitability for the period of 10 years (in th. USD) Indicator Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Gross profit 757 773 790 807 825 843 861 880 899 EBITDA Interest 752 99 768 82 785 66 802 49 820 33 838 19 856 13 875 6 894 0 Taxes Net profit 41 551 44 582 46 613 49 644 51 676 53 705 55 728 57 751 58 775 Project profitability Project capex USD 0,45 mln. Discount factor 4% Project NPV (10 years) USD 0,55 mln. Payback Period 2,2 years Project IRR 29% Payback Period disc. 3,2 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: Almaty Region, Karatal District, Ushtobe City, 3 Suyunbay street CONFIDENTIAL 1 2 Project information “Enbek” Farm Cooperative meat and milk producer from horse and goat Project cost: USD 5-15 mln. Location: Akmola region, Stepnogorsk town Implementation period: 2016 Project scope: production of meat and dairy products from horse and goat domestic animals. Currently the farm cooperative produces 290 tones of horse milk, 1000 tones of goat milk, 75 tones of horse meat and 53 tones of goat meat. Finished product: Packaged horse meat and milk; packaged goat meat and milk Production capacity: 290 tones of horse milk; 1000 tones of goat milk; 75 tones of horse meat and 53 tones of goat meat p/a. Potential markets: Primarily domestic market Provision of land and premises: initiator of the project owns 560 hectares of farm facilities. The local governing body provides 8300 hectares of pasture land for the needs of the project. the farm owns 560 hectares of pasture land. The local municipality provides additional 8300 hectares of land for the needs of the project. Required financing: USD 4,5 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☑ Debt Project initiator Company name «Enbek» Farm Cooperative Year of establishment 2011 Presence on the market: 2011 Current operation: production of meat and dairy products from horse and goat domestic animals. Project documentation is being developed for the project ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability for the period of 7 years (in mln. USD) Project profitability Indicator Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Revenue 2,2 2,8 3,1 3,2 3,9 4,0 Gross Profit 0,7 2,2 2,5 2,6 3,3 3,3 Project profitability Project capex USD 3,3 mln. Project IRR 30% ROE Payback Period Payback Period disc. 16% 2,5 years 2,9 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: «Enbek» Farm Cooperative Akmola region, Stepnogorsk town CONFIDENTIAL 1 3 Project information Establishing Dairy farm Project cost: USD 0-5 mln. Location: Almaty region, Yeskeldi District, Baktibay village Implementation period: 2016-2022 Project scope: Horse breeding and Mare’s milk farm. This project is intended to ensure food security of the Almaty region. Finished product: Kumis, horse meet Production capacity: 45 tons of horse meet, 840 000 liters of mare’s milk Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, and CIS countries Provision of land and premises: Initiator owns 700 head cattle base, 100 hectares of land, agricultural complex with water, electricity, heating infrastructure, roads and farm machinery. Raw materials of cattle fodder will be bought from local farms. Required financing: USD 0,9 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☑ Debt Project initiator Company name Uştöbe-Aydin LLP Year of establishment 2002 Presence on the market: 2002 Current operation: Agricultural complex on production of dairy products ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability for the period of 5 years (in USD) Project profitability Year 1 Sales COGS EBITDA Taxes Net profit 150 000 117 403 32 597 2 136 8 542 Year 2 Year 3 158 940 123 706 35 234 3 250 13 002 Year 4 225 750 132 011 93 739 15 562 62 249 Year 5 268 568 138 891 129 677 23 353 93 414 Total 226 500 148 216 78 284 13 672 54 686 1 029 758 660 227 369 531 57 973 231 893 Project profitability Project capex 875 000 USD Discount factor 8% Project NPV 450 000 USD Project ROI 41,0% Project IRR 20,5% Payback Period 3,7 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun KAZNEX INVEST, JSC +7 7172 91 90 40 (int. 1124) E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: Almaty Region, Yeskeldi district Uştöbe-Aydin LLP CONFIDENTIAL 1 4 Project information Establishment of the Dairy Farm with 600 heads of cows and modernization of the existing dairy plant for the production of European quality cheeses Project cost: USD 5-15 mln. Location: Almaty region, Raimbek District, Kegen village Implementation period: 2016 Project scope: production of hard and soft types of cheese as well as dietary products for children and adults. This project is intended to ensure food security of the Almaty region and Almaty city with the management of the entire chain of production from livestock fodder to finished packaged products for retail Finished product: Cheeses Production capacity: up to 1 000 tons of cheese (hard, ricotta, mozzarella and albumin cottage cheese ) annually Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Eurasian union, China Provision of land and premises: initiator owns 2,064 hectares of agricultural lands for fodder farming, including 500 hectares of non-irrigated arable land, 384 hectares of hayfields and 1180 hectares of pastures. There is fully equipped 1000 sq.m. of processing facilities and 250 sq.m. food warehouses Required financing: USD 1,5 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☐ Debt Project initiator Company name «ASU LTD» LLP Year of establishment 2004 Presence on the market: 2006 Developed brands: «Live», «Protonic», «Ace» and «Altyn Kese (Golden Cup)" Total assets: USD 7 mln fixed Current operation: Company had temporally stopped its operations due to absence of required financing resources ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability Project profitability for the period of 10 years (in th. USD) Indicato r Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Gross profit 1 733 6 791 6 648 9 829 10 971 10 942 12 569 14 865 17 077 EBITDA Interest 1 093 428 4 858 481 4 733 431 7 717 351 8 660 271 8 534 190 10 022 143 11 988 95 13 800 48 Taxes Net profit 1 497 168 6 782 190 4 084 350 6 988 401 7 962 398 7 920 478 9 376 582 11 286 678 13 051 Project profitability Project capex USD 8,9 mln. WACC 6,89% Project NPV (10 years) USD 32 mln. Payback Period 4,1 years Project IRR 37,35% Payback Period disc. 4,5 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: ASU Ltd CONFIDENTIAL 1 5 Project information Establishment of the dairy farm on goat milk production Project cost: USD 0-5 mln. Location: West-Kazakhstan region, Zelenovsky district, Shapovo village Implementation period: 2016 Project scope: construction of the Dairy farm on goat milk production with its further processing and production of goat cheese Finished product: Goat milk and cheese Production capacity: 750 heads of goats and 182 500 liters of goat milk per annum Potential markets: local market of Kazakhstan, Russia Provision of land and premises: initiator owns a dairy farm complex with installed space of 1 200 sq. m., production building of 450 sq. m. necessary agricultural equipment, as well as completed warehouse for ready products. Required financing: USD 0,2 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☐ Debt Project initiator Company name Bisekesh farm cooperative Year of establishment 2013 Presence on the market: 2013 Developed brands: Current operation: Production of dairy products ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability Project profitability for the period of 8 years (in th. USD) Indicator Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Revenue COGS Taxes Net profit 88 25 6,3 56,7 191 39 15,2 136,8 408 57 35,1 315,9 1 013 98 91,5 823,5 1 013 98 91,5 823,5 1 013 98 91,5 823,5 1 114 129 98,5 924,5 1 114 129 98,5 924,5 Project profitability Project capex USD 0,2 mln. ROI 84% Project NPV (8 years) USD 0,16 mln. ROE 41% Project IRR 46,6% Payback Period 2,3 years Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: Bisekesh farm cooperative Bisekesh Beibit CONFIDENTIAL 1 6 Project information Establishment of modern dairy farm Project cost: USD 0-5 mln. Location: Kyzylorda region, Karaultyubinski region Implementation period: 2016 Project scope: Construction of the modern dairy farm with the scope of producing wide range of dairy products with annual capacity of 7 800 tons. Finished product: dairy products Production capacity: 7 800 tons annually Potential markets: mainly Kyzylorda region and close by regions Provision of land and premises: initiator owns the land and real estate necessary to build the farm Required financing: USD 1,75 mln. Required investor type: ☑ Equity ☐ Debt Project initiator Company name Djumanbekov Farm cooperative Year of establishment 2015 Presence on the market: - Current operation: This is a greenfield project, thus no operations a re currently undertakes ☐ Technology transfer ☐ Other Project profitability Project profitability Project profitability As for confidentiality terms, additional information on financial model and project documentation will be provided upon personal request Contact Contact information Veronika Yun Manager at Sectorial department on agriculture and food processing, KAZNEX INVEST, JSC Mob: +7 771 805 4083 E-mail: [email protected] Project initiator’s contacts: Djumanbekov Farm cooperative CONFIDENTIAL 1 7