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OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY
OF COLOMBIA 2017
Boosting inclusive growth
25 May 2017, Bogota
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-colombia.htm
@OECDeconomy
@OECD
Main findings
 The economy has been resilient to the fall in commodity prices
 Raising productivity and making growth more inclusive are key to lifting
living standards
 A solid macroeconomic policy framework sustained growth
 The landmark 2016 tax reform will boost investment and reduce the
dependence on oil revenues
 Reforms to strengthen the business environment and the quality of
education, to reduce informality and increase women’s work
opportunities would raise productivity and reduce income disparities
Living standards have improved
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.
Poverty has declined
Source: DANE, Encuesta Continua de Hogares (2002-2005) y Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares
(2008-2015).
Growth has been robust
Source: OECD Productivity Statistics database.
The shock to the terms of trade was large
Index, 2007=100
140
LAC-4
Index, 2007=100
140
Colombia
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Note: LAC-4 refers to the unweighted average of values for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Series calculated
as a 4-quarter centred moving average.
Source: OECD Economics Department database.
95
The peso depreciated significantly
Source: Banco de la República.
Inflation is coming down
Y-o-y % changes
Y-o-y % changes
10
10
Inflation
Core Inflation
Inflation expectations 12-months forward
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
Inflation target range
2
1
0
2
1
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: OECD Economics Department database and Banco de la República.
2016
2017
0
The tax reform is a step in the right direction but
more revenue is needed
Statutory corporate income tax rates as of 2016
%
%
Note: *COL refers to 2017 and **COL refers to 2019.
Source: OECD Tax database.
COL*
USA
FRA
BEL
COL**
ITA
DEU
MEX
AUS
JPN
PRT
LUX
GRC
NZL
CAN
ESP
NOR
NLD
ISR
AUT
0
KOR
0
CHL
5
SWE
5
SVK
10
DNK
10
CHE
15
GBR
15
TUR
20
ISL
20
FIN
25
EST
25
POL
30
HUN
30
CZE
35
SVN
35
LVA
40
IRL
40
Key recommendations
Further improve macroeconomic resiliency
• Raise more revenue in the medium term.
• Approve the law awarding the financial
superintendence regulatory powers over
holding companies of financial
conglomerates.
Creating better quality jobs
Informality is high
2013 or latest available year
A. Employees
%
B. Self-employed
%
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
CHL
CHN
BRA
TUR
CRI
ZAF
ARG
COL
MEX
CRI
MEX
ZAF
COL
Note: Informality among employees is defined as the share of employees not contributing to the pension system.
Informality among self-employed is defined as the share of self-employed who did not register their business.
Source: OECD (2016).
ARG
0
Self-employment is widespread
Self-employment as a percentage of total employment, 2015
%
%
Note: Self-employment is defined as the employment of employers, workers who work for themselves, members of
producers' co-operatives, and unpaid family workers.
Source: OECD Economic Department Database and DANE, GEIH.
COL
GRC
TUR
ITA
MEX
KOR
POL
SVN
NLD
IRL
BEL
PRT
CAN
0
OECD
0
NZL
5
CZE
5
GBR
10
ESP
10
SVK
15
AUT
15
ISR
20
LVA
20
ISL
25
FIN
25
JPN
30
FRA
30
DEU
35
AUS
35
LUX
40
HUN
40
CHE
45
EST
45
DNK
50
USA
50
NOR
55
SWE
55
Formal workers earn much higher wages
1500
1500
Formal workers
Informal workers
Average worker
1200
1200
900
900
600
600
300
300
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Formal workers are employees and self-employed people aged 15-64 who pay pension contributions.
Source: OECD calculations based on GEIH of DANE.
0
Thousands
Gross earnings in thousands of Colombian pesos, 2008-13
Tax reforms have helped the formal job creation
Job creation at national level, annual changes
Y-o-y % changes
Informal
15
Formalisation and Job Creation Law
Y-o-y % changes
Formal
15
Abolition payroll taxes
10
10
5
5
0
0
Abolition health care contribution employers
-5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Note: Formal job creation is defined as the year-to-year change in the number of workers (including
employees and self-employed) contributing to the pension system.
Source: OECD calculation based on GEIH data sourced from DANE.
2016
-5
The female employment to population ratio is
below the OECD average
Employment to population ratio of women aged 15-64, 2015
90
100
%
80
%
90
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database.
TUR
GRE
MEX
ITA
CHL
ESP
KOR
SVK
COL
POL
IRL
HUN
BEL
OECD
FRA
LUX
SVN
PRT
CZE
USA
ISR
JPN
LTV
AUS
AUT
FIN
EST
GBR
NZL
NLD
CAN
DEU
DNK
NOR
0
SWE
0
SWI
10
ISL
10
The gender gap is declining, but still high
Male minus female employment to population ratios, in percentage points
CHL
% points
MEX
OECD
COL
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Key recommendations to create better quality jobs
• Further reduce taxes and fees on wages (non-wage
labour costs).
• Simplify procedures for company registration and the
affiliation of workers to social security.
• Ensure the provision of affordable, good-quality child
care and affordable long-term care for elderly relatives or
those with disabilities.
• Expand access to and make greater use of active labourmarket programmes.
Enhancing the quality of education is
key
Productivity is too low to support growth
GDP per person employed, as percentage of the US, constant 2010 PPPs, 2015
%
%
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
OECD
EU
CHL
Source: OECD Productivity Statistics database.
MEX
BRA
COL
CHN
IND
0
Income inequality remains high
P90/P10 ratio, 2014 or latest available year
Note: The P90/P10 ratio is the ratio of income of the 10% of people with highest income to that of the
poorest 10%.
Source: OECD (2016), OECD Employment Outlook.
COL
CRI
CHL
MEX
USA
TUR
ISR
EST
ESP
JPN
GRC
LVA
PRT
KOR
ITA
CAN
NZL
AUS
GBR
POL
IRL
DEU
HUN
CHE
0
LUX
0
FRA
2
BEL
2
NLD
4
AUT
4
SWE
6
SVN
6
FIN
8
SVK
8
CZE
10
NOR
10
ISL
12
DNK
12
Many students do not attain basic skills
Student performance in sciences
Mean science score in PISA, 2015
Source: OECD, PISA 2015 Database.
IDN
MEX
CRI
COL
TUR
URU
ROM
CHL
SVK
GRC
ISL
ISR
ARG
HUN
ITA
LVA
LUX
ESP
CZE
OECD
FRA
SWE
AUT
USA
PRT
NOR
POL
BEL
DNK
IRL
CHE
300
NLD
300
DEU
350
GBR
350
AUS
400
SVN
400
NZL
450
KOR
450
HGK
500
FIN
500
CAN
550
JPN
550
EST
600
SGP
600
Improving skills will boost growth
Long-run growth increase
% points
% points
Note: "Long-run growth increase" refers to increase in annual growth rate (in percentage points) once the whole
labour force has reached higher level of educational achievement.
Source: OECD (2015), Universal Basic Skills: What Countries Stand to Gain, OECD Publishing.
PER
COL
BRA
ARG
URY
MNE
CRI
MEX
CHL
TUR
ISR
ROU
SVK
GRC
ITA
FRA
SWE
ISL
LUX
OE…
HUN
NZL
ESP
BEL
NOR
PRT
AUT
CZE
0.0
USA
0.0
DNK
0.2
GBR
0.2
AUS
0.4
SVN
0.4
IRL
0.6
DEU
0.6
NLD
0.8
CHE
0.8
POL
1.0
CAN
1.0
FIN
1.2
JPN
1.2
EST
1.4
KOR
1.4
Few students enrol in professional and
technical degrees
% 60
60
Percentage of students in secondary education enrolled in vocational programmes
Percentage of students in tertiary education enrolled in technical programmes
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Data for 2012.
NLD
AUT
BEL
CZE
ITA
SVN
AUS
CHE
SVK
FIN
LUX
NOR
SWE
PRT
DNK
CHL
TUR
ISL
CHN
EST
FRA
ISR
IDN
DEU
ESP
GRC
CRI
RUS
IRL
MEX
HUN
0
OECD
0
THA
10
NZL
10
ARG
20
JPN
20
LAC
30
KOR
30
GBR
40
COL
40
BRA
50
ZAF
50
%
Skill mismatches remain high
Composition of labour supply and demand by level of education in Colombia
%
%
90
90
Supply
Demand
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
High School Dimploma or less
Technical degree
Source: Colombian Atlas of Economic Complexity (Lora, 2015).
Bachelor's degree
Graduate degree
0
The education system could do more to
promote social mobility
Share of resilient students across OECD and LAC countries
As a percentage of all students
%
50
%
50
Note: A student is classified as resilient if he or she is in the bottom quarter of the PISA index of economic, social
and cultural status in the country/economy of assessment and performs in the top quarter of students among all
countries/economies, after accounting for socio-economic status.
Source: OECD, PISA 2015 Database, Table I.6.7.
PER
BRA
CRI
COL
MEX
CHL
URY
ISR
ARG
ISL
SVK
HUN
GRC
LUX
TUR
CZE
SWE
AUT
NOR
ITA
FRA
BEL
DNK
0
CHE
0
OECD
5
IRL
5
NZL
10
NLD
10
USA
15
AUS
15
POL
20
DEU
20
LVA
25
SVN
25
PRT
30
GBR
30
ESP
35
CAN
35
FIN
40
KOR
40
JPN
45
EST
45
Key recommendations to enhance the quality and
outcomes of education
• Provide more public support to skills training in regions
lagging behind.
• Establish a national curriculum for school education and
professionalise teachers’ careers.
• Provide more public support to increase enrolment rates
of disadvantaged children in less developed regions.
• Expand early childhood education.
Boosting infrastructure and
improving the business climate
Public investment has increased
%
5
%
5
Colombia
OECD
4
4
3
3
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: OECD Economics Department database.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2
The quality of infrastructure needs to be
improved
Index
Ports
Index
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
FIN
BEL
ESP
DNK
NZL
USA
NOR
DEU
GBR
SWE
CAN
PRT
JPN
KOR
IRL
LVA
FRA
OECD
CHL
LUX
AUS
SVN
CHE
ZAF
GRC
CHN
ITA
TUR
AUS
MEX
CZE
IND
IDN
POL
HUN
ISR
COL
SVK
CRI
BRA
7
Note: Index scale 1-7, from lowest to highest quality.
Source: World Economic Forum (2015).
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Note: Index scale 0-6, from least to most stringent.
Source: OECD, Product Market Regulation Database.
Barriers to
trade facilitation
Diff. treatment
of foreign suppl.
Tariff barriers
Barriers to entrepreneurship
Barriers to FDI
Barriers in
network sectors
Antitrust
exemptions
OECD average
Legal barriers
to entry
Barriers in
services sectors
State Control
Admin. burdens
for sole propr. firms
5
Admin. burdens
for corporations
Comm. and
simplification
Licenses and
permits system
6
Command and
control regulation
Index
Price controls
Involvement in
business operation
Governance
of SOEs
Direct control
Gov't involvement
in network sectors
Scope of SOEs
Business regulation remains restrictive
Product market restrictiveness, 2013
Colombia
Index
6
Barriers to trade and
investment
5
Regulation is restrictive in the electricity,
transport and railway sectors
Road
Index
6
Index
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
AUS
CRI
BRA
CAN
ISR
PER
CHE
ARG
AUT
DNK
FIN
DEU
IRL
JPN
LUX
MEX
NZL
NOR
SVK
SWE
GBR
OECD
HUN
BEL
CZE
EST
ISL
KOR
NLD
POL
PRT
SVN
ESP
CHL
GRC
COL
FRA
TUR
ITA
5
Note: Index scale 0-6, from least to most stringent.
Source: OECD, Product Market Regulation Database.
The court system is slow to resolve
commercial disputes
Days
Time required to enforce a contract, 2014-15
Days
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
NZL
KOR
NOR
RUS
LUX
SWE
JPN
FIN
MEX
CHE
AUS
FRA
HUN
AUT
DNK
ISL
USA
EST
PER
DEU
GBR
CHN
LVA
IDN
CHL
BEL
ESP
NLD
OECD
PRT
CAN
TUR
ECU
ARG
PRY
VEN
CZE
IRL
POL
PAN
SVK
URY
BRA
CRI
ISR
ITA
SVN
COL
IND
GRC
1600
Source: World Bank, Doing Business Database, 2015.
0
Key recommendations to boost infrastructure
investment and improve the business framework
• Sustain the increase in public investment.
• Finance more infrastructure programmes on a regional basis.
• Implement the road infrastructure program (4G) and
guarantee that Private-Public-Partnerships continue to have
proper cost-benefit analysis.
• Remove regulations on public ownership and vertical integration in
electricity, vertical integration and market structure in rail.
• Introduce a court or a division of a court dedicated solely to
commercial cases and facilitate case management through electronic
case management tools.
For more information
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such
data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West
Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the
delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-colombia.htm
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